football | Thursday, February 23, 2023 2:22 PM

Friday Night Best Bets: France, Germany and England Make Up Friday’s Betting Agenda

Sam Ingram

Friday Night Best Bets: Friday, February, 24th

Before we get to the weekend, Europe’s biggest leagues provide an interesting offering of top-flight football. Three potential angles to consider from three fixtures are explored below.

In this article:

Fulham vs Wolves Preview & Best Bet
Mainz vs Gladbach Preview & Best Bet
Lille vs Stade Brestois Preview & Best Bet

Fulham vs Wolves Preview

England, Premier League, February 24th, 20:00 (UK)

There’s uncertainty surrounding Aleksandr Mitrović’s involvement on Friday night due to a hamstring injury. That in itself does not only cast doubts over the effectiveness of their frontline but also suggests that goals may not be so frequent when Wolves visit.

Fulham mustered just 0.34xG against Brighton last time out in a snatch-and-grab victory at The Amex. They were without the Serbian frontman then and certainly had Lady Luck on their side in terms of the result. The Seagulls’ 2.22xG says everything you need to know about how that 90-minute period ebbed and flowed.

Only the 2-2 clash with Liverpool in the cup, out of all 12 matches as Wolves boss, has gone Over 3.5 Goals under Julen Lopetegui. The 1.23xG in their crushing 0-1 loss to Bournemouth outlines the toothless nature still on display at times in the Midlands, though they did more than enough to see off a hapless Nathan Jones-led Southampton and a troubled Liverpool the two weekends before.

Fulham vs Wolves Best Bet

This Fulham side, at home, will be difficult to beat. They may not have Mitrović up top, but Marco Silva has them motoring at present – even when the xG gods aren’t favouring them. Only Spurs, Newcastle, and Manchester United have toppled the hosts at Craven Cottage this term.

A win for the Cottagers takes them level on points with Newcastle in fifth after 25 games of a Premier League campaign. There’s still a way to go, but if Silva hasn’t pushed his way to the front of the top-flight manager of the season conversation, then something has gone wrong.

Selection: Fulham or Draw & Under 3.5 Goals
Best Odds: 1.80 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Fulham vs Wolves Tips

Mainz vs Gladbach Preview

Germany, Bundesliga, February 24th, 20:00 (UK)

The 71% of Borussia Monchengladbach fixtures to bank Over 2.5 Goals in the Bundesliga this season may lead you down the goal-centred path in Germany on Friday. Well, it’s done precisely that to me.

Mainz’s 60% of matches at home returning Over 2.5 Goals profits fits the bill nicely for me, scoring eight goals themselves in their last two home outings. In addition, only two matches at the MEWA Arena have finished without Mainz finding the net.

With Mainz’s last six matches seeing three or more goals, a Monchengladbach side overseeing BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals in nine of the previous eleven games suggests both teams are likely to get on the scoresheet in Germany.

When delving into the underlying numbers, you’ll see each side has worked its way into the top ten for expected goals over the season. Interestingly, both Mainz (31.1xGA) and Gladbach (31.5xGA) feature in the top eight for expected goals-against.

Mainz vs Gladbach Best Bet

So, going off the eye test over recent weeks and the underlying data that backs up the potential for a glut of goals, perhaps 1.95 for BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals represent value.

Only 3/10 of Mainz’s home matches have profited in the proposed market this season. And all three came in the last three home matches. Gladbach? Daniel Farke’s men have got this pick over the line in 7/10 fixtures away from home.

Selection: BTTS-Yes and Over 2.5 Goals
Best Odds: 1.95 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Mainz vs Gladbach Tips

Lille vs Stade Brestois Preview

France, Ligue 1, February 24th, 20:00 (UK)

Only once have Stade Brestois lost a Ligue 1 fixture this season by more than a three-goal margin. The 7-0 thumping by Montpellier was a rather unforgettable outlier – one they’ll want to forget, for sure.

Jonathon David comes into this match having netted a penalty in each of the last three games, with his brace versus Strasbourg seeing his only open-play goal in six matches.

Lille vs Stade Brestois Best Bet

However, if you expect Lille to create gilt-edged chances on Friday night against a visiting Stade Brestois side who have only returned three points against the worst Ligue 1 has to offer – David will be front and centre to convert any joy the hosts create.

Up until this point, the visitors have recorded four victories all season. An Angers double, Clermont Foot and Troyes the unlucky quad, suggesting they’ll have their work cut out when travelling to one of the European-chasing outfits.

Selection: Jonathan David Anytime Goalscorer and 1-3 Winning Margin
Best Odds: 2.40 (William Hill)
Stakes: 5/10

More Lille vs Stade Brestois Tips

Odds via bet365 and William Hill as at 10:00 February 23rd, 2023. Odds may now differ.

What are Football Best Bets?

Our best bets are posted by some of the best tipsters around. These are our tipsters best value bets. A best bet can be placed on any number of different markets. The most common of which are 1X2, the Asian handicap, BTTS, and the goals markets. Value can be found in matches from leagues across the world. Be sure to follow bettingexpert for the latest best bets.