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football | Friday, October 6, 2023 7:52 AM (Revised at: Saturday, October 7, 2023 7:29 AM)

Jimmy’s Longshot Punt: A 239.20 TRIXIE for Saturday’s Action

Jimmy’s Longshot Punt: A 239.20 TRIXIE for Saturday’s Action
James Cantrill
James Cantrill
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Last weekend’s Longshot went comically bad as the two sides I backed to hit their opponents for four were both three down at half time, whilst Brighton went on to concede six goals.

This weekend, we’re hoping to go a lot closer and there is certainly some large looking prices across the Premier League and the Championship.

Our expert, Jimmy The Punt, takes you three intriguing match-ups in England:

Acca odds: 239.20

Odds via Betfair & Paddy Power as at 11:10, October 5th, 2023. Odds may now differ.


Manchester United vs Brentford: Sting in the tail

England, Premier League, Saturday 7th October, 15:00 (UK)

Manchester United are not an appetising betting proposition at the moment, not at 1.67.

Erik Ten Hag’s disastrous start to the season has seen him move into second favourite in the sack race, some transition considering his side were 10/1 for the title ante-post.

The Red Devils have won four games. Two were underserved victories over Wolves on matchday one and Nottingham Forest. They also edged past Burnley at Turf Moor and thumped a second-string Crystal Palace side in the League Cup.

Within the last week, their imperious home record has crumbled, and the Eagles beat them in the Premier League. Then Palace legend and former Red Devil Wilfried Zaha came back to haunt his former employees in the Champions League, scoring the opener as Galatasaray beat them 3-2. A Casemiro red card rubbed salt in the wounds.

So, the only deterring thing about taking on Man Utd was the Old Trafford voodoo, but Saturday’s hosts have lost half of their games there this season.

Brentford look a bet at 5.00.

The Bees may have only won one top-flight game this season, but this is an occasion that will suit them.

  • Selection: Brentford Win
  • Best Odds: 5.00
  • Bookmaker: 888Sport
  • Stake: 10/10

Leeds vs Bristol City: Robbing Robins

England, Championship, Saturday 7th October, 15:00 (UK)

The early consensus is the Championship is going to be a two-horse race between Leicester City and Ipswich Town. The latter is the surprise package, and the former is yet to hit top gear.

Bristol City have gone to the King Power Stadium this season and were narrowly beaten, Jamie Vardy’s match-winner coming via the spot.

That afternoon, Nigel Pearson’s side bored the neutral and frustrated the Foxes massively with their stubborn low block.

It may say Leicester racked up an xG of 2.31 and created ‘four big chances’, but in reality, the hosts really struggled to create.

Granted, the Robins did ride their luck at times, but Pearson will have taken great belief from his side’s performance at one of the top sides in the division, and I think they could emulate that performance at Elland Road with a better outcome.

United’s 1-0 victory over QPR in midweek is the perfect example of how the hosts may struggle this weekend.

Daniel Farke’s side could not break the deadlock against Hull or Sheffield Wednesday, lost at St Andrew’s and went two goals behind against Cardiff on matchday one. So, the proof is in the pudding.

  • Selection: Bristol City Win
  • Best Odds: 6.50
  • Bookmaker: Betfair
  • Stake: 5/10

Southampton vs Rotherham: Smash & Grab

England, Championship, Saturday 7th October, 15:00 (UK)

Southampton are a streaky side. They were unbeaten across their first four Championship games, winning ten points. Then four straight defeats, conceding 12 in the process.

Momentum has swung back in the favour of Russell Martin’s side, who have taken maximum points from their last two, including a scalp over promotion rivals Leeds.

With their supremo unwilling to compromise tactically, it seems results depend on the opposition’s approach, and Rotherham should relish this trip to St Mary’s.

The Millers throw up a few surprise results in these circumstances when they can play on the counterattack.

This campaign, they beat Norwich, picked up a point against Blackburn and lost by one goal against Leicester and Sunderland, all with 38% or less.

Last season, they picked up points in 60% of their games. Only two of them saw them enjoy the Lion’s share of possession. Also, 42% of the points they won were games with less than 38% of possession.

  • Selection: Rotherham Win
  • Best Odds: 8.50
  • Bookmaker: Betfair
  • Stake: 2/10

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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