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Mixed martial arts Jimmy’s Punt: January 14th - 120.00 Long Shot for Premier League Clash
Jimmy’s Punt: Saturday, January 14th
Welcome to the inaugural edition of Jimmy’s Punt. This is the first edition of a weekly article that will provide the longest of long shots each weekend. We start with a tempting 140.00 long shot for the Premier League match between Brighton and Liverpool this Saturday.
In this article:
Brighton vs Liverpool Preview
Saturday, January 14, 15:00
Strap yourselves in as Roberto De Zerbi’s swashbuckling Brighton welcome Liverpool to the Amex on Saturday.
The Italian’s stint so far on the south coast has been enthralling, rife with goals, tireless pressing and tidy possession.
This will be the Seagull’s 14th game of his tenure in all competitions. There has only been one stalemate to date, in the EFL Cup, 23 goals scored, 22 conceded and counting.
The exciting thing about their match-up with Liverpool is that De Zerbi will not compromise tactically even if he is going toe-to-toe with Jurgen Klopp’s Reds.
This is what happened in the reverse at Anfield anyway, the first game of the Italian boss’s era, where we saw the net bulge six times, and I think the reverse will follow suit.
That clash, like the other five against the ‘big six’, proved to be a shootout, a thrilling match of pressing and possession played at a high intensity, ultimately boiling down to who could take their chances.
The Reds come into this in pretty appalling form. Domestically, they have dropped points in ten of their 18 games with all bar one of their five losses coming on the road.
In fact, they have only won twice on their travels, Forest and Brentford have beaten them and Fulham and Everton picked up a point.
The Reds have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last seven games, conceding nine over that period.
Brighton vs Liverpool Preview
In their six games against the ‘big six’ under Zerbi, there have been a total of 26 goals scored and 22 cards brandished. That is an average of 4.33 goals and 4.67 cards a game. Box office!
Brighton scored five times in two games against Arsenal, four against Chelsea, once at the Etihad and three times in the reverse of this fixture.
Given the visitors’ defensive woes, the Seagulls could get another hat-full of goals here. Leandro Trossard has been deployed as a false nine a couple of times under De Zerbi, once vs Southampton on Boxing Day and a league game against Arsenal a few days later.
However, with the Belgian player looking a shadow of the player that left for the World Cup, I think young Evan Furguson looks primed to continue leading the line.
The frontman has made five appearances for BHA, scoring thrice, assisting twice, averaging 3.33 shots per 90, committing four fouls and picking up a booking.
He played a starring role against Liverpool’s Merseyside rivals, Everton, on his EPL debut.
Ferguson bagged himself a goal – though he could have had two – as well as an assist and a card.
The goal combination pays out at 24.80 with 365 but I am going to be a little bit braver and combine a Ferguson brace with a booking at 120.
I’ve seen enough of the Republic of Ireland youngster to see his ability is matched by his intelligence and I am confident chances will come his way on Saturday.
This bet is also laced with a little bit of narrative as the Seagulls pipped both Liverpool and Everton to Ferguson’s signature a few years ago.
The striker opted to go down south over the northwest as a clear route to the Premier League was available.
Hopefully, he will be doubly keen to vindicate his decision with a performance here.
- Selection: Evan Ferguson brace & card
- Best Odds: 120.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 2/10
Odds as at 13:30 on January 12th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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