Matt Kirby’s Top Five Ante-Post Outright Bets

The calendar has turned into August, so the countdown to the new domestic football season has begun. As teams finish their pre-seasons, we’ve asked Matt Kirby to provide us with five of his favourite ante-post outright bets. They cover the Premier League and right across the Football League from League Two to the Championship.

With everyone analysing squad depth, searching for transfer rumours, and finding out who should be excited or fearful, let’s see what Matt has his eye on for the coming campaign with his ante-post tips.

• League Two Top Seven: Port Vale 
• Premier League Points Totals: Brentford Under 42 Points
• To score 20+ goals: Emmanuel Latte Lath
• Top Championship Goalscorer: Emmanuel Latte Lath
• Championship Top Six: Norwich
• League One Top Goalscorer: Ashley Fletcher 

2024/25 Season Preview on The Football Betting Pod: Abundant Ante-Post Angles

We’re back, as host Daniel Jenkins is joined by bettingexpert Football Editor, Sam Ingram, and bettingexpert contributor, Jack Wright, who serve up fifteen selections between them.

The pair take a forensic look at the ante-post outright betting markets with the aim of serving up a number of value selections ahead of the return of domestic football in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two.

Port Vale Top Seven Finish: Strong Valiants can bounce back

England, League Two.

Port Vale were “Championship ready” at the start of last season. However, they ended up in the League One drop zone, leaving Darren Moore with a summer to rebuild the Valiants squad.

There’s a strong chance that Vale will bounce back at the first time of asking with some of the additions they’ve made. David Flitcroft’s departure from behind the scenes has aided Moore’s attempts to mould a squad he thinks can get out of this division.

Lorent Tolaj is one of four forwards brought in. He scored 19 goals in the National League for Aldershot last season. Meanwhile, Ruari Paton has bagged 39 in his last two seasons at Queen’s Park.

That pair will have their first taste of EFL football, so it’s important to bring in players with that experience. That’s exactly what Vale have done by adding 30-year-olds Ronan Curtis and Jayden Stockley.

That quartet should be able to score plenty of goals, which is what you need to do to get out of the fourth tier. Last season’s top three scored 89+ goals, so that’s what Moore will be looking to achieve.

Licking Lips

Connor Hall was a fan favourite during his first Vale stint – he’s returned to the Potteries. Ben Amos gives them a safe pair of hands between the sticks. And Moore has used his contact book to bring in George Byers from Sheffield Wednesday, in something of a coup.

The business they’ve managed to pull off so far should have the Vale Park faithful licking their lips. But there will still be a few concerns about Moore’s tactics after winning just two of his 17 games albeit with a struggling side.

Moore has done it before at higher levels, so he’ll have plenty of knowledge and experience on the challenges he’ll face. And there’s plenty to believe he can navigate Vale to a high finish.

They’re 11.00 to win the league with Bet Victor, which does appeal. But, despite them being in the wrong half of the Potteries for me to usually say a good word about, the 2.50 with Bet365 for Vale to finish in the top seven looks a strong play. They should be play-offs minimum.

• Ante-Post Selection 1: Port Vale Top Seven Finish
• Best Odds: 2.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Brentford Under 42 Points: Not much buzz around the Bees

England, Premier League.

Bet365 have priced up points total markets for all 20 Premier League clubs. So, I thought I’d have a look to see if anything caught my eye.

Let me start by saying I believe managers have a life cycle at a club, like a product. And I feel that Thomas Frank’s reign at Brentford has hit what would be in the saturation phase.

The Bees stuttered to a 16th-place finish last season, ending with 39 points, which would have seen this angle payout.

Ivan Toney missed the first half of the season, and there are plenty of transfer rumours swirling around the England international. The latest sees Man Utd sniffing around after the injury picked up by Rasmus Hojlund in pre-season.

Toney could still be at the Gtech by the time the window slams shut, but the only money they’ve spent looks to be on his replacement, Igor Thiago from Club Brugge.

However, the squad remains largely intact. The return of Aaron Hickey should be a boost, but there’s not much within their roster to excite me or to shout about that makes you think they’ll sail safely through another campaign.

Stuck in a rut once more

There were spells last season when you worried for them. In December, they went on a five-game losing streak, then there was spring’s nine-match winless run. You’d expect them to be in and around Everton again – they lost home and away to the Toffees. Plus, one of Sheffield Utd’s three wins came against the Bees.

It’s just those runs that make me think they could get stuck in a rut. And with loyal owners who might give Frank a bit more slack for what he’s done for the club, they could fall short of what many expect.

So, when you talk about the relegation picture this season, I’d be putting Brentford into the frame. You can get 6.00 in places on them to end in the drop zone, but I’m sweeter on the 2.10 on the Bees to win under 42 points.

• Ante-Post Selection 1: Brentford Under 42 Points
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Emmanuel Latte Lath 20+ goals: Milk the Latte (Lath) markets

England, Championship.

Another special market that only Bet365 seem to have priced up is based on individual goal tallies in the Championship.

Emmanuel Latte Lath ended last season with a bang, and I feel he has to be in the running for the Championship Golden Boot. So, I’m taking the Ivorian to bag 20+ goals at 2.10. And I’ll have a bit on him to be the top scorer at 15.00 with Paddy Power and Betfair.

The Boro forward made 30 appearances in the Championship last season – 23 starts and seven sub-apps – where he found the net 16 times. Nine of those came in his last eight games, so I’m hoping he can start where he ended in May.

It took some time for him to settle in at the Riverside, but he could hit the ground running after having a pre-season under his belt, with these team-mates. Latte Lath has found the net in friendlies against Bolton and Doncaster.

What helps the argument here is the amount of chances Michael Carrick’s Boro create. Last season, only the three promoted sides and Leeds recorded more shots on target (217), while only Ipswich and Hull had a better shooting accuracy than Boro’s 35%.

Take that last stat and narrow it down to our man Latte Lath. The striker hit the target with 41 of his 73 shots – a 56% shooting accuracy. Plus, his 1.76 shots on target per 90 was the highest in the league.

The 25-year-old just looks a threat in and around the box. He’s useful with both feet and is an aerial threat after scoring a few headed goals. Last season’s goals came across 2,093 minutes, so a goal every 130 minutes should translate into a decent haul, providing he stays fit.

The bookies haven’t missed him with him being the second/third favourite in the top scorer book. But I can’t ignore the strong impression he made last season and I’m expecting more of the same, where he breaks the 20 mark.

• Ante-Post Selection 3: Emmanuel Latte Lath 20 or more goals
• Ante-Post Selection 4: Emmanuel Latte Lath Top Championship Goalscorer
• Best Odds: 2.10 & 15.00 (each-way)
• Bookmaker: bet365 & Paddy Power/Betfair
• Stake: 7/10 & 5/10

Norwich Top-Six Finish: Chirpy Canaries to be on song

England, Championship.

I’m staying in the Championship for my next pick. I was keen on West Brom to have a decent campaign, but as I started to write my reasoning the news emerged about a transfer embargo.

Carlos Corberan worked for most of last season with one arm tied behind his back, and it looks like he’ll have to do it again. I’m swerving them following that news, as Corberan’s patience must be wearing thin.

Even though I’m expecting a tough battle for a top-six finish, another side I reckon will be in the mix once more is Norwich.

They were humbled by Leeds in the play-offs last season, which saw them part ways with David Wagner. They’ll be led into the new campaign by highly-rated Johannes Hoff Thorup, who had a near 51%-win rate with Nordsjaelland.

Canaries might sing

I don’t think Thorup has too much to tweak to make sure Norwich have a successful campaign. They were the fifth-top scorers (79) last season but probably will have to tighten things up at the back. That’s where Jose Cordoba enters the mix after his capture from Levski Sofia.

The East Anglian club will hope to keep Josh Sargent fit. He had a stunning second half to the season after returning in January. Veteran Ashley Barnes can act as a useful foil with his link-up play. And let’s not forget the talented Borja Sainz and Jonathan Rowe.

The Canaries look set to lose the excellent Gabriel Sara to Galatasaray for around £20m, so if they can spend that wisely on a replacement, you have to expect them to compete.

It’s sure to be a competitive battle for these positions, yet I can see the Canaries playing an entertaining style of football that could see them reach the play-offs. The spine looks strong, so a couple of extra additions would be the icing on the cake. Therefore, the 3.25 on a top-six finish is the way to go.

• Ante-Post Selection 5: Norwich Top Six Finish
• Best Odds: 3.25
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Ashley Fletcher Top League One Goalscorer: The future’s bright, the future’s orange for Fletcher

England, League One.

I haven’t yet touched upon League One, where the markets are expecting Birmingham to dominate and make an instant return to the Championship.

 

Fellow relegated sides Rotherham, under Steve Evans, and Huddersfield should be up there. While Bolton and Peterborough are perennial top-six sides at this level.

Players from those sides feature high in the top goalscorer market, along with Wrexham’s Paul Mullin and Charlton’s Matt Godden, who is an excellent capture from Coventry.

Jordan Rhodes is next on the list. The veteran forward scored 15 goals in 29 games for Blackpool last season, which is a decent return. But I sat up and took notice when I saw who could be leading the line with him.

So, as a final ante-post tip, I’m having a nibble on something at a bit more of a lavish price. This one is chalked up at 67.00 with Sky Bet, and it’s for Ashley Fletcher to be the league’s top scorer.

Nibble at 66s

I might be overdoing this but for some reason, I think back to the 2020/21 season where Neil Critchley led Blackpool to promotion through the play-offs. That campaign saw Jerry Yates end the campaign as the joint-third top scorer with 20 goals.

Pool weren’t able to make the play-offs last season as Critchley returned. But that goal haul from Rhodes shows they create plenty of chances. And when you compare that promotion-winning season to last, you’ll notice that they scored five more goals in 23/24 despite only finishing eight.

Rhodes is the obvious candidate after last season’s exploits but the price on Fletcher stands out. He never got going at West Ham, Middlesbrough, Watford or Sheffield Wednesday, so dropping into the third tier is a move where he can show everybody what he’s about.

The last time Fletcher plied his trade at this level was for Barnsley, where he scored seven in 23 games. And on his arrival at Bloomfield Road, he’s vowed to ‘change people’s perception’ of him.

On joining Blackpool, he said he wanted to have a full pre-season, where he scored goals and then carry that form into the new season. Well, the good news is, he’s done exactly that. Fletcher has bagged in friendlies against West Brom and Accrington Stanley.

That should stand the striker in good stead heading into the Tangerines’ first game of the season away at Crawley. And with him under Critchley’s stewardship – a person who comes across well and seems to be a great man-manager – then Fletcher could thrive and is worth chancing each-way at a tasty price.

• Ante-Post Selection 6: Ashley Fletcher Top League One Goalscorer
• Best Odds: 67.00
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 2.5/10 (each-way)

Matt Kirby’s Top Five Ante-Post Outright Bets Odds via bet365, Sky Bet and Paddy Power as of 11:00, Sunday, 4th August, 2024 – odds for best bets may now differ.

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