Napoli vs Torino Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

After a full house last week, bettingexpert Football Editor, Sam Ingram, joins host Daniel Jenkins for another couple of tips for this weekend’s action. The boys pick apart the Manchester Derby and discuss the gloom amongst the doom at Torquay United.

The tips look at all three Premier League title contender’s chances on the weekend either side of a surprise quiz that may cost Sam his reputation as a tipster…

• You can watch the video of this podcast on our YouTube channel
• The bettingexpert Football Podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts.

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Napoli vs Torino Tip 1: The champions are still alive

Italy, Serie A, Friday, March 8th, 19:45 (UK)

After four games in charge, Napoli’s third manager of the season, Franco Calzona, is still unbeaten (two wins and two draws), and the team seems to have rediscovered the fighting spirit with the help of its leaders on the pitch.

Last year’s champions’ campaign remains very complicated, and next Tuesday’s match in Catalunya will have a big impact on the future of the club and its finances, but lately, Napoli have shown resilience and the will to finish the season on a high.

Would that be enough to secure a spot for next year’s Champions League?

Unlikely, considering Napoli have an eight points gap from Bologna, currently in fourth place, and their defensive issues (seven teams in Serie A have conceded fewer goals than them as Napoli kept only three clean sheets at the Maradona in all competitions), are still unsolved.

On Sunday, the hosts did not deserve to beat Juventus, who squandered many chances, especially with Dusan Vlahovic, but their first success in a match against a direct rival might represent the turning point of a tumultuous season.

• Napoli vs Torino Tip 1: Torino Asian Handicap +0.5 (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

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Napoli vs Torino Tip 2: Toro are in credit with fortune

However, Torino won’t be an easy client, especially before such an important Champions League tie.

Lately, Ivan Juric’s men have collected less than what they deserved: they prevailed in terms of xG against Lazio but lost 2-0, played well away at the Olimpico but were punished by Paulo Dybala’s brilliance and were on top last Saturday against Fiorentina until Samuele Ricci got sent off.

The big problem for the Granata is that they seem incapable of taking the lead even when they’re dominating (they’ve only scored first in 10 out of 27 games) and are extremely inefficient (they’re only Serie A’s 15th attack) in relation to how well they play.

Based on xG they should have scored five times more and be two positions higher up in the table; part of the issue has been Toni Sanabria’s low form (three goals, compared to 12 last season), and the below-par contribution of players such Nikòla Vlasic (two goals so far).

Only eight players (including the long-term injured Peter Schuurs) have scored for the Granata in the league this season, whose main source of goals has been the crosses of Raoul Bellanova (five assists) for Duvan Zapata (eight signatures so far).

• Napoli vs Torino Tip 2: Both Teams To Score – Yes (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

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Napoli vs Torino Tip 3: Hosts often leave it late

On the other hand, Torino have been solid at the back, and their 0-0 against Fiorentina, when they played with ten men the entire second half, is further proof of their defensive organization.

The visitors struggle to score (although the underlying metrics suggest they create chances), but are very hard to break down. In fact, they’ve kept 13 clean sheets, second only to leaders Inter (17), four of which are away from home against Salernitana, Lecce, Frosinone, and Genoa.

Torino dominated Napoli in the reverse fixture, beating them 3-0, and given the Azzurri’s stuttering form in front of their home crowd (six defeats in all competitions and 26 goals conceded), the visitors might sense the opportunity to get a positive result on Friday.

Napoli are unbeaten in six home games in the league, but in all, bar the 0-0 draw against Monza (when the visitors missed a penalty), they’ve scored at least a goal in the last fifteen minutes.

Only eight out of 27 Torino games have produced more than two goals (30%, the lowest record in Serie A). Therefore this Asian Line covers you: you’d lose half your stake if there are only two goals.

• Napoli vs Torino Tip 3: Over 2.25 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.02
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Napoli vs Torino Prediction odds via bet365 as at 9:45, March 4th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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Napoli vs Torino Team News and Possible Lineups: emergency in the middle for the visitors

Politano, Osimhen and Kvaratskhelia are the untouchables in Napoli’s front three. Raspadori, who scored the winner against Juventus, and Lindstrom will have space in the second half.

Anguissa, Lobotka and Traore will play in midfield. The only doubt is between Juan Jesus and Natan in defence. Cajuste and Ngonge might recover from their muscular injuries and make the bench.

“We have launched a signal. We are on the right path. This victory shows that we want the Champions League,” said Napoli manager Franco Calzona after last Sunday’s win.

Torino’s manager Ivan Juric is suspended, as well as Ricci in midfield. Ilic is ruled out due to injury, and Schuurs, Tameze and Lovato are also not available.

Linetty and Gineitis, who did well against Fiorentina, will play in midfield. Vlasic will support Sanabria and Zapata.

Napoli possible starting lineup:Meret; Di Lorenzo, Ostigard, Juan Jesus, Olivera; Anguissa, Lobotka, Traoré; Politano, Osimhen, Kvaratskhelia

Torino possible starting lineup:Milinkovic-Savic; Djidji, Buongiorno, Rodriguez; Bellanova, Linetty, Gineitis, Lazaro; Vlasic; Sanabria, Zapata

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The Predicted Napoli vs Torino Serie A Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Serie A standings ahead of the Napoli vs Torino, currently 7th vs 10th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

Napoli vs Torino Standings Prediction

Position	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	29.1	5.8	3.1	88.1	23.9	64.2	93.2
2	Juventus	38	23.4	9.2	5.3	58.6	26.2	32.4	79.6
3	AC Milan	38	21.8	7.0	9.2	70.0	47.8	22.2	72.5
4	Atalanta	38	21.0	6.1	10.8	71.7	39.9	31.8	69.2
5	Bologna	38	17.2	12.5	8.4	53.1	37.3	15.8	63.9
6	AS Roma	38	17.6	8.5	11.9	62.0	43.6	18.5	61.2
7	Lazio	38	17.7	7.5	12.8	47.7	38.8	8.9	60.5
8	Napoli	38	16.7	9.4	11.9	55.6	44.0	11.6	59.6
9	Fiorentina	38	15.9	8.3	13.8	54.3	46.1	8.2	56.0
10	Torino	38	13.6	12.8	11.6	36.4	35.3	1.1	53.7
11	Monza	38	11.2	12.2	14.5	37.7	50.0	-12.3	45.9
12	Genoa	38	10.7	12.6	14.6	38.2	47.2	-9.0	44.9
13	Udinese	38	7.3	17.5	13.2	39.7	54.6	-14.8	39.4
14	Lecce	38	9.1	12.0	16.9	41.0	60.6	-19.6	39.3
15	Sassuolo	38	9.9	8.4	19.7	47.9	65.8	-17.9	38.1
16	Frosinone	38	9.6	8.0	20.4	47.0	73.6	-26.6	36.8
17	Empoli	38	8.6	10.4	19.0	32.4	56.8	-24.4	36.2
18	Verona	38	7.8	11.4	18.8	36.8	52.2	-15.4	34.8
19	Cagliari	38	7.7	9.9	20.4	39.0	68.6	-29.6	33.1
20	Salernitana	38	4.2	9.7	24.0	31.3	76.3	-44.9	22.4

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Match Stats: Torino searching for an historic win

• The most common result of matches between Napoli and Torino at the Maradona is 1-1. Four matches have ended with this result.
• Torino’s last away win against Napoli was in 2009.
• Last season Napoli won both games against Torino (3-1 at home and 4-0 away).
• A year ago, Napoli were top of the table with 68 points. Now they are 9th with 40 points.
• Napoli has scored only 3% of their goals in the first 15 minutes. This is the lowest percentage in Serie A.

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Napoli Fixtures: key games ahead

• Vs Barcelona, Champions League (A)
• Vs Inter (A)
• Vs Atalanta (H)
• Vs Monza (A)
• Vs Frosinone (H)

Torino Fixtures: three home matches including the derby

• Vs Udinese (A)
• Vs Monza (H)
• Vs Empoli (A)
• Vs Juventus (H)
• Vs Frosinone (H)

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