On The Beach vs The Motivated

We’re approaching the business end of the season where motivation levels are often skewed between home and away dressing rooms. Let’s take Manchester United and Tottenham, for example. Both clubs have nothing to play for in the Premier League. The Europa League takes focus at both clubs as a realistic qualifying route into European competition next season, whilst their league opponents will likely come up against rotated elevens and second-rate effort.

If you can pinpoint said imbalances in your betting, you might be on to something. Sam Ingram is on hand to run us through a couple of potential standouts from the Easter weekend slate, including a selection in League Two which takes priority (similar to Spurs, in a way).

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Shrimps Facing Exile: Goals in Bromley

If Accrington wins away in Salford and Tranmere beats Doncaster on the weekend, while Morecambe loses to Bromley, then Morecambe will be mathematically relegated with three games left to play.

Morecambe travel to Bromley, a team promoted from the National League last season via Wembley. They’ve done brilliantly this season – in 14th, around mid-table – plenty of points, only ten off the playoffs. Realistically, it’s likely a gap that won’t be closed.

Michael Cheek, Bromley striker, is League Two’s top goalscorer on 21, four ahead of second place. They’ve done really well this season – they were favourites for the drop along with Morecambe, but a National League side hasn’t been promoted and instantly come back down at the first time of asking for a long, long time.

Party Atmosphere At Hayes Lane

Andy Woodman will have his team up for this at Hayes Lane despite the motivation not being as strong to win as it is in the away dressing room. Bromley have returned 28 points at home this season, which is the 20th-best record in the league. On the road, they’ve returned the same amount of points (28), but that’s the 9th-best away form in the division, something which has pushed them into the realms of being safe at this stage. A month or so ago, they looked like contenders for the playoffs after a very strong February.

I’m expecting there to be a bit of a party atmosphere at Hayes Lane for the rest of the season. That should radiate from the players if their mindset is to go out there, have fun, express themselves, and look to create as many opportunities as possible.

After Bromley’s head-turning run in February, they lost to Tranmere 2-1, who were also fighting for their lives. Since then, Bromley have won just once in seven after winning 5/7 games beforehand. More importantly, since the Tranmere defeat, they’ve landed over 2.5 goals in 6/7 of their most recent games. The 1-1 with Newport in that run, the one Unders outlier, saw Bromley have four big chances but fail to convert more than once.

Over 2.5 goals is the market we’ll be taking on Friday afternoon in this one.

In the Away Corner

Lose this game and you’re relegated from the football league. Win this game, and it’s still a very tall ask for a football club that has struggled for so long and one that lost to their relegation-threatened rival Carlisle United last week at home. That was a brutal blow to Morecambe’s survival bid. Carlisle plays Port Vale on Friday, so if Morecambe can get a win here, who knows?

Derek Adams, Morecambe manager, has been around the block. There’s no chance he’ll have given up yet, which is reflected in his comments this week, stating, “We do have belief because we have matched most teams in the league all season, and we need that belief in the next week or so. We still have to win three games to have any opportunity of staying up.”

Morecambe simply have to win. Nothing else will do. Adams had his fair share of significant moments in relegation dogfights, so this situation is not hopeless for him and his players, regardless of how perilous and hopeless many will view Morecombe’s position.

Not Quite Good Enough

They’re in this position because they’re not quite good enough for the level, they don’t score enough goals, they don’t do what’s required to turn performances into points. The concern here is, of course, similar happens again, and Bromley runs out 1-0 winners.

I would lean toward that not happening if we see a level of determination and desire to fend off relegation. We saw in the Champions League with Aston Villa, although clearly quite a different set of circumstances, when that need and hunger is there to win, and you keep knocking on the door, you have a shot at beating the best team in world football. 

Morecambe doesn’t have that in front of them on Friday. Derek Adams’ men have a Bromley side that has been a breath of fresh air for the level, but one that can beat. It’s a team Morecambe can take points off.

We might see an old-fashioned back-and-forth at Hayes Lane where both clubs throw caution to the wind. Not only that, but BETSiE has this game projected as the highest scoring fixture (3.10xG) in League Two for Friday’s schedule.

Faltering Forest Desperate For Points

Are two wins on the bounce against Aston Villa and a stingy Everton side enough to label Monday’s visitors as ‘faltering’? Yeah, I’m not sure about the headline, either. But, facts are facts – losing two consecutive games is a rarity this season. It has happened just twice up to this point for Nottingham Forest, against Newcastle and Arsenal in November and Fulham and Newcastle in February. 

The positive to take from those two instances for Forest supporters is that both times the club has rallied back to piece together a decent run of results. That’s something they desperately need right now in their hunt for Champions League qualification.

Their hosts on Monday Night Football, Tottenham, have nothing left to play for in the Premier League. Spurs are languishing in the bottom half of the table. Relegation is only just out of reach, fortunately for them, and qualifying for Europe via a league finish is even further away. Considering the second-leg of a Europa League quarter-final takes place in Frankfurt on Thursday evening in Germany, it’s safe to say that Ange Postecoglou’s priorities are elsewhere.

Get The Draw On Side

It makes the prospect of Nottingham Forest on the Draw no Bet line (0.0AH) very enticing indeed. They’ve moved from the +0.25AH line they opened at, but still having the draw protection, I’d argue, is worth taking on.

Away from the calendar and club priorities, Forest have the tools to hurt Spurs in transition and on the counter. The pace of Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi versus weary legs in the second-half, might be enough to win the contest for a team consistently undervalued by the bookmakers due to their approach to games and the perceived unflattering data attached. 

Similar to the majority of Forest games this season, Spurs dominated possession in their previous head-to-head (70%) this season. However, it wasn’t enough to get a positive result over the line as the Tricky possession-less Trees won 1-0 and stumped up a healthier underlying total in the process: 1.12xG vs 0.90xG.

Safer Gambling

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