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Football | Wednesday, June 5, 2024 1:03 PM (Revised at: Friday, June 14, 2024 2:35 PM)

Poland vs Netherlands Prediction: Euro 2024 Team News and Lineups Preview

Poland vs Netherlands Prediction: Euro 2024 Team News and Lineups Preview
Orange Pics BV / Alamy Stock Photo: Cody Gakpo of Netherlands dribbles past goalkeeper Angus Gunn of Scotland

Welcome to our Poland vs Netherlands prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. The opening match of Group D in Euro 2024 gets underway at the Volksparkstadion in Hamburg. Ronald Koeman’s Dutch outfit take on a Polish side who are the current favourites to finish bottom of the standings. 

Both teams would love to get off to a winning start and our expert Steve Wyss previews the game looking for some of the best Early Bird betting angles. 

And if you want to check out Steve’s Group Preview, click here.

Last updated: June 14th, 2024.

Player to watch: Cody Gakpo

Cody Gakpo was easily the Netherlands’ standout player in the World Cup in Qatar. It got him a move to the big time – Merseyside – where he now calls Premier League football his home. The experience gained this season should be invaluable to Gakpo at tournaments such as this. He has been deployed on the wing, in midfield, and as a False Nine under Jurgen Klopp.

That might have hindered the 25-year-old’s progress and numbers at Liverpool, but we certainly started to see flashes nearer the end of the campaign that was more reminiscent of his time in the Netherlands and his eye-catching performances in Qatar.

Netherlands player Cody Gakpo

In attack for the Netherlands, Xavi Simons will likely start alongside Gakpo and offer width in line-breaking ability alongside Gakpo, who will both sit just behind/either side of Memphis Depay who will gladly take on leading-man duties at the focal point of the Dutch attack in a 3-4-3 setup under manager Ronald Koeman.

Now in his second stint as manager, Koeman will be hopeful that utilising Gakpo off his favoured left will see him add to his 16 goals in 53 games for Liverpool in all competitions this term, just over one in three, as he locks down a spot out wide in a solid-looking Dutch outfit.

  • Nation: The Netherlands 
  • Club: Liverpool
  • Position: LW/Striker
  • Selection: Cody Gakpo Anytime
  • Bookmaker: Skybet
  • Odds: 3.00 [This section is an addition from the bettingexpert team and not Steve Wyss]

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Bettingexpert’s Free Euro 2024 Betting Guide is out NOW!

The bettingexpert Euro 2024 Betting Guide


Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:

  • Match Result (1X2)
  • Handicap Betting
  • Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)

Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:

  • 8 historical tournament analysis articles
  • 24 team-by-team articles
  • BETSiE projections for every team and group
  • Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes

For a free copy of the Euro 2024, click the button below:

Download the guide

Poland vs Netherlands Prediction 1: Dutch quality can lead them to a convincing win

Euro 2024, Sunday June 16th, 14:00 (UK)

The limitations of the Netherlands and their manager might be exposed in the latter stages of this tournament, but despite many talking about this potential group of death, they should, logically, progress to the next round with relative ease. Facing France in matchday two will be tricky but it should add some extra incentive that the team in orange need to start with a victory. I believe that Poland are not on the same level and we could see a comfortable win for The Netherlands. 

The qualifying campaign saw them lose twice to France, but last summer, they put up a decent fight in the Nations League playoffs. They lost to Italy in a tight game before succumbing after extra time vs Croatia. Poland is not at the level of those nations, and qualifying would suggest they have taken a step backwards since the World Cup. They laboured to this tournament and struggled in a qualifying group containing the likes of Moldova, Albania and Czech Republic, eventually needing penalties to see off Wales in the playoff.

Poland reached the last 16 of the World Cup in Qatar but were far from convincing and the usual trend is that they flatter to deceive in major tournaments. The Netherlands should win and win well here which is why I like them on a -1 Asian handicap. All three of their wins at the World Cup in Qatar were by a two goal margin and in a match which might have decent goalscoring potential I’ll back them to deliver. 

  • Poland vs Netherlands Prediction 1: Netherlands -1 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 2.15
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 8/10

Poland vs Netherlands Prediction 2: Value in backing high scoring bonanza

This is a match in which I fancy quite a few goals to be scored, although I prefer to attack the over 3.5 line with a lower stake. This may well be the sort of contest that is either a completely damp squib or might kick off into something spectacular. In theory, the personnel on show and the general style of both teams should yield goal potential. The Dutch are known down the years for playing positive and attacking football and have talents such as Xaxi Simons and Cody Gakpo, who will offer plenty of flair and pace in the final third of the field.

Poland is a slightly different case, but any team that has Robert Lewandowski in it deserves some respect. Their qualifying campaign record can’t be taken fully at face value due to the change of manager mid-way through proceedings. The Poles will be keen to put on more of a show, especially with the tournament very close to their homeland. The defence wasn’t a great strength in qualifying, with only clean sheets against the Faroes and one against Albania. 

The Netherlands found themselves exposed at times in the last couple of years. That has mostly happened against good sides, but their style can lead to the defence being blown open far too easily. I would rather take over 3.5 goals at a higher price in case Poland throws in an absolute stinker where they offer nothing. The over 2.5 line is also perfectly acceptable, but in this instance, I’m value hunting.

  • Poland vs Netherlands Prediction 2: Over 3.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 3.40
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 3/10

Poland vs Netherlands Prediction 3: Netherlands can impose themselves throughout the whole match

Considering I expect them to go well in this match and win comfortably, then I think there’s legs in backing the Netherlands to score in both halves. There is some logic to this pick, and the stands out price as big as 2.62 helps, making for especially great appeal. If we consider the fact that they are a significant favourite around the 1.60 mark and between a -0.75 and -1 Asian Handicap, then I think it’s fair to expect a strong Dutch performance with goalscoring potential.

In six of their last nine wins, the Netherlands have scored in both halves. When they go well, they tend to dominate straight from the off. Apart from against the Faroe Islands, Poland kept just one clean sheet in qualifying and conceded several goals against the Czech Republic and even Moldova. The last time that they were seen in competitive tournament action, France comfortably dismantled them with a lights-to-flag win. If the Netherlands are similarly convincing, then there’s every chance they can score at least one goal in each half. 

  • Poland vs Netherlands Prediction 3: Netherlands to Score in Both Halves (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 2.62
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 5/10

Poland vs Netherlands Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, June 3rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Poland vs Netherlands Team News and Possible Lineups: Competition for places in the Dutch defence

Poland are expected to line up in a 3-5-2 formation which manager Michal Probierz has preferred since taking over at the helm. There is some competition for places, especially at the back but he should go with a back three which includes Jan Bednarek and Jakub Kiwior. The Netherlands are expected to employ a 3-4-2-1 system. The likes of Micky Van de Ven and Matthijs de Ligt could contend for a spot in defence, whilst Wout Weghorst is expected to lead the line upfront. 

Poland possible starting lineup:
Szczesny, Bednarek, Dawidowicz, Kiwior, Frankowski, Piotrowski, Slisz, Zielinski, Zalewski, Swiderski, Lewandowski

Netherlands possible starting lineup:
Verbruggen, De Vrij, Van Dijk, Dumfries, Schouten, De Jong, Blind, Simons, Gakpo, Weghorst

Euro 2024 Match Stats: Dutch looking to return to former glories in this event

  • This is the fifth consecutive European Championship that Poland have qualified for. They have only made it out of the group stage once, back in 2016
  • Netherlands won this competition in 1988 but haven’t reached the semi finals since 2004
  • The two teams faced each other in the 2020 and 2022 Nations League with the Netherlands winning 3 of the 4 clashes and one draw. 
  • Neither team topped their qualifying group and Poland needed the playoffs to ensure their berth at this tournament.
  • Exactly half of Poland’s games at the UEFA European Championship have finished level (7/14), the highest  ratio of draws for any side to have played in more than one edition of the tournament.
  • The Netherlands have scored on average 1.67 goals per game at the UEFA EURO (65 goals in 39 games),  the highest ratio of any team at the tournament.
  • Robert Lewandowski is Poland’s highest ever goalscorer at the UEFA European Championship, netting five  of their 11 goals overall in the competition. He’s scored four of their last five goals at the tournament,  including each of the last three.

Poland Group D Euro 2024 Fixtures: Austrian Game To Decide Qualification

  • Vs Netherlands (N)
  • Vs Austria (N)
  • Vs France (N)

Netherlands Group D Euro 2024 Fixtures: Tasty clash against France up next

  • Vs Poland (N)
  • Vs France (N)
  • Vs Austria (N)

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