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Analysis | Thursday, May 9, 2024 2:03 PM (Revised at: Thursday, June 13, 2024 10:39 AM)

Euro 2024 Group D Prediction: Betting Tips Preview

Euro 2024 Group D Prediction: Betting Tips Preview
PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo: Soccer - Friendly - England v France

Here we have it, bettingexpert’s Euro 2024 Group D prediction and betting tips preview. One of the big tournament favourites, France, are locked in one of the most high profile groups at Euro 2024. They face the Netherlands, Austria, and Poland. 

The Group Stage matches start on 16th June with Poland vs Netherlands in Hamburg. Football expert, Steve Wyss, looks at all the teams in-depth and finds some betting angles for those involved. 

Bettingexpert’s Free Euro 2024 Betting Guide is out NOW!

The bettingexpert Euro 2024 Betting Guide


Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:

  • Match Result (1X2)
  • Handicap Betting
  • Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)

Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:

  • 8 historical tournament  analysis articles
  • 24 team-by-team articles
  • BETSiE projections for every team and group
  • Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes

For a free copy of the Euro 2024, click the button below:

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Euro 2024 Group D Overview Prediction: Les Bleus the star side in competitive group

UEFA European Championships 2024, June 14th-July 14th 2024

Group D contains the highest-ranked European side in the world. France are #2 in the FIFA world rankings list and enter the tournament as the general second favourites. They are expected to go deep into the tournament and are the most likely group winners. Joining them in this group are the Netherlands, who have a world ranking of #7, Austria #25 and Poland #28. On the face of things, then, this would appear to be one of the hardest and most competitive groups at Euro 2024.

Group of ‘D’eath?

France head into the tournament led by Didier Deschamps for what will be his sixth consecutive major tournament. The former Marseille and Juventus legend has racked up over 150 matches in charge of his country, the highlight of which was winning the 2018 World Cup in Russia. Deschamps has one final hurdle to climb, and that is lifting the Euro championship. France were runners up in their own tournament in 2016 before suffering an exit to Switzerland on penalties back in 2021 when heavy favourites. It is easy to see why they are fancied to do well this summer. They are led by a proven and experienced manager and have one of the best squads in the entire world. Nearly every position is loaded with an abundance of quality, and they are spearheaded by Kylian Mbappe, who is arguably the best player on the planet. Mbappe is the bookmakers’ favourite to be the player of the tournament and joint-favourite to be the top scorer. At the time of writing, Les Bleus had nearly 20 players valued over £40 million, with Real Madrid midfielders Aurelien Tchouameni and Eduardo Camavinga both standing out as key players in the spine of the team.

Many will expect the Netherlands to offer the biggest challenge to France. Both sides were in the same qualifying group, and France beat them comfortably on each occasion, including a 4-0 drubbing in Paris. Former Everton and Barcelona manager Ronald Koeman is in charge for a second spell at national team level, and the jury is out. Koeman is expected to have the Dutch in a 3-4-1-2 type of system. Koeman never had the chance to lead the Netherlands into the Euro 2020 tournament because he accepted the Barcelona job instead. 

He’s back in charge of a unit which reached the quarter-finals of the World Cup in Qatar. He has an exciting bunch of young, talented players to lean on, such as Xavi Simons, Matthijs de Ligt and Cody Gakpo. Mixed in with some proven performers like Virgin van Dijk and Nathan Ake, then, the nation will expect them to reach at least the quarter-finals again. However, there is a reason why the Dutch are generally 7th or 8th favourites to win Euro 2024. So far, under Koeman’s second tenure in charge, they have come unstuck whenever they’ve faced remotely good opposition. Defeats to France (twice), Croatia, Italy and Germany must be of concern. This might be a tournament where they find some others just too good.

Dark Horse territory?

Austria are priced at 80/1 to win the tournament and could be labelled a dark horse by many pundits. They haven’t qualified for a World Cup since 1998, but this will now be their third consecutive appearance at the European Championships. ‘Das Team’ will aim to at least equal their run in the previous tournament, which saw them beaten after extra time by eventual winners Italy in the last 16. Manager Ralf Rangnick was recently in the news for turning down Bayern Munich, and there is no doubt with him in charge, they have an astute tactician who will change between variations of 4-4-2, 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. 

Austria won 6 out of 8 qualifying games and only finished one point behind Belgium. At the time of writing Rangnick has won 11 of his last 14 games in charge. Perhaps this team might play better than what the squad suggests on paper. Austria does have injury problems, though. Both Xaver and Alexander Schlager could miss the tournament. David Alaba and Sasa Kalajdzic are coming off torn ACLs. The likes of Phillip Lienhard and Kevin Danso, along with Max Wober, have also been carrying injuries. A lot might rest on the shoulders of Kondrad Laimer and Marcel Sabitzer, who have enjoyed good seasons with their respective clubs. Perhaps a last-16 berth might be the most that Rangnick can get out of this squad. 

Poland were disappointing in qualifying and only progressed to the tournament via the playoffs on penalties vs Wales. This is likely to be Robert Lewandowski’s final swansong at a major international tournament. He will be 36 in August and is set to go over the 150 cap mark for Poland at Euro 2024. At the time of writing, he has 82 goals for his country from 148 apps. It was a miserable qualifying group for Poland, where Fernando Santos was sacked after just six games. 

They failed to beat Moldova, and two of their three wins were against the Faroes. Michal Probierz is now in charge but faces an arduous task. He will need to lean on the likes of Piotr Zielinski, Jakub Kiwior and goalkeeper Marcin Bulka in addition to Lewandowski, of course. They could get inspired by being so close to home, though, and Lewa will be fired up for one final tournament.

Euro 2024 Group D Prediction 1: France should be favourites to win the tournament and offer value

For most of the run-in towards this tournament, England and France have shared joint favouritism to win Euro 2024. We are now at the stage where Les Bleus are a whole notch higher at 4/1, and this just feels wrong. These two sides have the best squads on the continent, or maybe even the world, but quite why England is so short in places is mystifying. Gareth Southgate’s men have yet to lift a major trophy and, until they get over the line, aren’t really a backable prospect.

France, under Didier Deschamps, is a proven team in major tournaments. He’s reached three finals in five events and won the World Cup 2018. The only real failure that Les Bleus had was losing to Switzerland in the delayed Euro 2020 tournament in the last 16.

Perennial Challengers

Apart from that, they have been perennial challengers, and don’t underestimate the fact that they won one of these tournaments. Deschamps is perfect with squad management, and there always seems to be the perfect balance within the French camp, which is a far cry from some previous French sides, who used to bicker and fall out.

England have probably got shorter due to the club form of key players such as Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden. If both England and France win their groups, which is a very realistic scenario, then they will be on a collision course to meet in the semi-finals. Could England gain revenge for France beating them in Qatar? At such a crunch stage of the tournament, you would have to back Les Bleus’ experience and winning mentality. France has all bases covered and, at the time of writing, only has one injury to worry about, which is the ACL tear of defender Lucas Hernandez. 

There is a very strong argument to make that France should be the outright favourite to win the tournament. At the very least, they should still be joint-favourites. They can deliver as a team but also rely on individual brilliance if needed. The value is there at 4/1 on Les Bleus lifting the trophy and for Deschamps to seal what has been a remarkable run as national team manager. 

  • Group D Prediction 1: France to Win Euro 2024 (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 5.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 5/10

Euro 2024 Group D Prediction 2: Poland to prop up the group standings

There is a chance that Poland could be inspired by being close to home, but based on what we saw of them in the qualifying campaign, there isn’t much for the other teams to fear. The Poles made it out of the Group stage at the World Cup in Qatar but were not very impressive and were convincingly beaten by France in the last 16. They failed to even beat Moldova in their qualifying group and dropped a lot of shocking points unexpectedly. A change of manager might help ‘The Eagles,’ but this looks like a stale side that can no longer really rely on Robert Lewandowski to bail them out of trouble. 

Poland has been drawn into a tough group, making their qualification prospects quite challenging. The Netherlands and France, two powerhouses, are expected to dominate, and Poland has shown no signs in the past couple of years that they can compete with such top nations. The crucial match in the group, likely to decide 3rd and 4th place, is Poland vs Austria, scheduled for matchday two at the Olympiastadion in Berlin. 

Poland can be backed at 1.80 to finish at the bottom of the group, which looks like a price that is more than acceptable to me. This is realistically a straight fight between themselves and Austria. Something is going badly wrong if France or the Netherlands are in danger of being cellar dwellers. Based on the qualifying campaign and the tactical acumen of Ralf Ragnick, I have to think that Austria have the edge. Austria are also the more likely side to nick something of the two stronger teams as well.

  • Group D Prediction 2: Poland to Finish Bottom of Group D (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.80
  • Bookmaker: Betvictor
  • Stake: 6/10

Euro 2024 Group D Prediction odds via betvictor as at 09:00, May 9th 2024. Odds may now differ.

The Predicted Group D Standings

France are the clear class act and should logically be winning all three group games. They are vastly superior to Austria and Poland, whilst in qualifying they proved too much for the Dutch. Second place might be up for grabs but Austria’s injury situation could prove detrimental. 

It looks like the second group game between Austria and Poland might determine who potentially qualifies for the Last 16 and who finishes bottom of the standings. Ultimately, Ralf Rangnick might have the better tactical acumen and Austria more momentum to avoid the basement. 

Group D Standings Prediction

  • France
  • Netherlands
  • Austria
  • Poland

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