football | Thursday, February 16, 2023 3:57 PM (Revised at: Saturday, February 18, 2023 9:36 AM)

Premier League Best Bets: Feb 18th - Value Picks for Three Matches this Saturday

Daniel Jenkins

Premier League Best Bets: Saturday, February 18th

England’s top flight continues and we’ve got Premier League best bets for three matches this Saturday. Our attention turns to some of the biggest clubs in the land. Fresh after Arsenal 1-3 Manchester City, we look at both of the top 2 and how they’ll cope after what must have been a taxing match for the players in midweek.

In this article:

Aston Villa vs Arsenal Preview & Best Bet
Chelsea vs Southampton Preview & Best Bet
Nottingham Forest vs Man City Preview & Best Bet

Aston Villa vs Arsenal Preview

Saturday, February 18th. 12:30 (UK)

Aston Villa host a wounded Arsenal team that now sits in 2nd spot after that 3-1 defeat to Manchester City in midweek. This always looked like it would be a difficult fixture for the Gunners. Arsenal generally don’t handle the early Saturday kickoffs well – even more so when it kicks off a little over 60 hours after a massive game with the title holders Manchester City.

There is also the added subplot of a former Gunners manager facing off against his old club. Unai Emery left the Emirates back in November 2019. He’s back in the Premier League and is ready to continue his record of having never lost against the Gunners. He’s drawn three and won one of his previous fixtures against Arsenal with PSG and in the Europa League with Villarreal back in 2020/21.

Aston Villa vs Arsenal Best Bet

I’ve had this bet pencilled in for several weeks. This was always going to be a difficult fixture for Arsenal so there is plenty of potential value in here. The Gunners have lost two of their last three trips to Villa Park which doesn’t bode well.

As previously mentioned, they don’t like the early kick off. I went back and looked at their record in 12:30 Premier League kick offs. The Gunners have had 13 under Mikel Arteta and won only six of them. Their PPG in 12:30 games is 1.61 compared to 1.85 for the rest of the matches.

Villa are an unpredictable team, especially at home but with a former manager – and goalkeeper – eager to impress, they look good value to get something here.

Selection: Aston Villa +0.5 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.05 (bet365)
Stakes: 6/10

More Aston Villa vs Arsenal Tips

Chelsea vs Southampton Preview

Saturday, February 18th. 15:00 (UK)

Next we travel to Stamford Bridge for another big six side in a slump. It looks as if Graham Potter’s Chelsea revolution will be a slow burn. The Blues look bereft of ideas right now whether they’re playing in the Premier League or Europe.

It’s clear what the immediate problem is. Chelsea just can’t score. A 1-0 defeat to Borussia Dortmund in midweek means they’ve now found the net just once in their last four matches in all competitions. That can be extended even further. The Blues have averaged a total of 0.46 goals per game in their last 13 fixtures in all competitions. That’s extraordinary for a club that has spent so much money on attacking players in the last nine months.

It’s a new era for Southampton following the departure of Nathan Jones. The prickly Welshman’s appointment certainly did not go to plan. He’s one of the few mid-season managerial changes in the Premier League that did not see an immediate improvement in results. Perhaps the caretaker manager Ruben Selles can help guide the club to a much-needed turnaround in form.

Chelsea vs Southampton Best Bet

The Saints look great value here. Southampton have an impressive record against the Blues with just three defeats in their last eight Premier League meetings. They beat Thomas Tuchel’s side in the reverse fixture back in August.

This is not the same Chelsea side. The bookmakers are expecting a big Chelsea win with the Asian handicap line set at -1.25. That feels ludicrous given the Blues have scored more than one goal in only one of their last 13 Premier League games. The new manager’s bounce must also be taken into account here with a Saints side that must be eager to impress whoever takes a permanent seat in the dugout.

Selection: Southampton +1.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.01 (bet365)
Stakes: 9/10

More Chelsea vs Southampton Tips

Nottingham Forest vs Man City Preview

Saturday, February 18th. 15:00 (UK)

The new league leaders Manchester City aim to continue their signature second half of the season chokehold on the title. Last season they went top for the first time on matchday 15 and stayed there until the end. The season before, it was matchday 20 when they first went top and stayed there. In this campaign, they waited until matchday 23 before reaching the summit. If they want to stay there, they need to keep winning matches starting with this one.

It’s a difficult one on paper. Nottingham Forest have shown their quality in recent months, especially at home. Steve Cooper’s side haven’t lost any of their last seven Premier League matches at home. They’ve faced Liverpool, Chelsea and Brentford in that time. It was 6-0 to the hosts when these sides met at the Etihad back in August but one suspects that this one will be a fair deal closer.

Especially after Manchester City’s exploits in midweek. They’ll have all of two hours more rest than their title rivals, Arsenal when this one kicks off. They would also fall behind the Gunners should they get something from their match at Villa Park.

Nottingham Forest vs Man City Best Bet

I’m not being bold enough to suggest that Manchester City will lose this match. Forest are strong at home and while the 1.5 Asian handicap is tempting, it wouldn’t be a surprise if City – and Erling Haaland fresh off his drought ender in midweek – push away from Forest.

Instead, I’m looking at BTTS. Forest have scored in all but one of their home matches in the Premier League this campaign. The goal line is set at 3 so the bookies are clearly expecting a few. Forest may feel that they have nothing to lose here and take a leaf out of the book of rivals like Brentford and Everton. Frustrate and counter City and there are goals to be had against this defence. With that in mind, BTTS looks a good bet.

Selection: Yes on Both Teams to Score (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.16 (Unibet)
Stakes: 7/10

Best odds available as at 15:45 on 16th February 2023. Odds may now differ.

More Nottingham Forest vs Man City Tips

WHAT ARE FOOTBALL BEST BETS?

Best bets are our best value football picks. Our tipsters employ their knowledge and identify the best value bets. Our best bets span a wide range of markets, ranging from 1X2, goals over/under to the Asian handicap. Stay up to date with bettingexpert to follow up on the latest best bets.