football | Thursday, October 13, 2022 1:40 PM (Revised at: Friday, October 14, 2022 2:37 PM)

Premier League Best Bets Oct 14th-16th: 4 Value Picks this Weekend

Daniel Jenkins

Premier League Best Bets: October 14th-16th

The Premier League best bets return ahead of a busy week of action in the English top flight. There are massive matches at both ends of the table with last season’s top 2 facing off at Anfield. The Premier League best bets conclude with that crucial match but we begin the action with the Friday night game.

In this article:

Brentford vs Brighton Preview & Best Bet
Wolves vs Nottingham Forest Preview & Best Bet
Southampton vs West Ham Preview & Best Bet
Liverpool vs Manchester City Preview & Best Bet

Brentford vs Brighton Preview

Friday, October 14th, 20:00 (UK)

Brentford host Brighton on Friday night with both clubs looking to get back to winning ways. The Bees have taken just one point from three matches, conceding eight goals in the process. The smashing 5-2 victory over Leeds is their only league win since beating Manchester United 4-0 back in August. Still, Thomas Frank’s side have won the xG battle in six of their nine matches thus far. Things will even out soon.

It was always going to be a difficult start for Roberto De Zerbi at Brighton. Replacing a successful manager in a successful team is never easy but the fixtures made things worse. The Seagulls faced Liverpool away and Tottenham at home in De Zerbi’s first two matches in charge. They’ll face Manchester City and Chelsea before October has finished. Those matches sandwich some more winnable games against Nottingham Forest and up first, Brentford.

The Seagulls have lost only one of their six most recent competitive games against Brentford. They’ll feel more confident coming into this one.

Brentford vs Brighton Best Bet

But I’m backing the Bees here. I think it’s only a matter of time until the underlying data catches up with Thomas Frank’s side. They’ve lost only two of their last nine home league matches and one of those was that 3-0 demolition at the hands of Arsenal last month.

I’m expecting both sides to find the net in this match but the Bees just have more goals in them. The draw no bet market offers odds of around 2.22 when looking at the hosts. That provides plenty of value.

Selection: Brentford Draw no Bet (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.22 (SBK)
Stakes: 7/10

More Brentford vs Brighton Tips

Wolves vs Nottingham Forest Preview

Saturday, October 15th, 15:00 (UK)

Wolves host Nottingham Forest for a match that will have massive implications on the bottom of the table. Both sides are stuck in the bottom 3 but a win for either side could change that.

It’s the first time they will have met in a league match since a Championship fixture back in January 2018. Wolves have had the better of this contest with seven wins and two draws from their last 13 meetings. That includes the most recent fixture of all, a 4-0 win for Wolves in the League Cup last season.

But a lot has changed since then. Wolves’ search for a new manager goes on following the reported failed pursuit of the former Spain, Real Madrid and Sevilla head coach, Julen Lopetegui. It’s been far from an ideal few weeks for Wolves who have lost three consecutive matches without scoring a goal.

Many had expected Forest to be going through a similar process but they’ve decided to stick with manager Steve Cooper and the early signs have been encouraging. That 1-1 draw with Aston Villa was their first Premier League point since August. It’s been coming.

Forest’s xG stats have been encouraging in recent weeks despite their final results. They’ve generated a total of 4.22 xG in their last four matches and allowed 4.14 xGA. Forest earned just one point in that time and conceded 11 goals so it’s fair to say that the data is kinder than the table. Still, data won’t secure their Premier League survival so Cooper must start picking up points soon. A trip to a side that has scored one goal in five matches is a good opportunity.

Wolves vs Nottingham Forest Best Bet

I expect Forest will get something from this match. The bookies have given them +.75 goals in the Asian handicap market which feels a tad generous. Wolves have struggled for goals and a home match against a side that has conceded 22 times in nine matches will feel like respite. Confidence isn’t a switch that can be turned on and the data is in Forest’s favour here.

Selection: Nottingham Forest +0.75 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.99 (bet365)
Stakes: 8/10

More Wolves vs Nottingham Forest Tips

Southampton vs West ham Preview

Sunday, October 16th, 14:00 (UK)

Problems are emerging at Southampton after a strong start to the season. The Saints took seven points from what appeared to be five difficult opening fixtures. They beat Chelsea 2-1 but have since lost their last four Premier League games. They now host a West Ham side going in the opposite direction.

The Hammers have won two consecutive Premier League games for the first time since January. Key players are returning to form but they’ve been aided by the quality of forward Gianluca Scamacca who has bagged two in his last two.

They come into this match as the slight favourites but with a good record against the Saints. West Ham haven’t lost on any of their last four league visits to St. Mary’s. It’s two wins and two draws for the Hammers. They’re in better form having won the xG battle in each of their last six Premier League games.

Southampton vs West Ham Best Bet

I expect that to continue and for West Ham to take the three points here. They’re finding form after a stuttering start and look good value to start picking points up soon. Another three here looks good value at low stakes given the odds.

Selection: West Ham to Win (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.48 (Unibet)
Stakes: 5/10

More Southampton vs West Ham Tips

Liverpool vs Manchester City Preview

Sunday, October 16th, 16:30 (UK)

This is the big one. Last season’s top 2 face off in a box office clash at Anfield. It doesn’t look as if Liverpool will be joining Manchester City in the top two of the Premier League this season given they are already 13 points behind their rivals. Still, this is a chance to eat away at that advantage – even if few expect them to.

The Reds experienced just their second Premier League defeat in 2022 last weekend as Arsenal maintained their status as early-season pace-setters. It was a damaging defeat for Liverpool but they restored confidence in midweek. A 7-1 win in a Champions League match is always eye-catching – even given the quality gulf between themselves and Rangers. Three goals for Mohamed Salah will give him confidence. The Egyptian has tormented Manchester City in recent years, scoring four in his five appearances against them for Liverpool at Anfield.

Manchester City’s recent form makes a neat contrast. They’ve been racking up points with a talismanic forward firing in the goals. City will instead be looking to ignore a disappointing European clash in midweek in which the said forward failed to play. It speaks volumes to Erling Haaland’s start at Manchester City that his weekly goal return of one is worth mentioning. 20 in your first 13 appearances for a club will do that.

Liverpool vs Manchester City Best Bet

Manchester City are the massive favourites at around 1.80 to win with most bookmakers. It’s a rare occurrence considering their record at Anfield. City have taken just nine points from their last 19 Premier League trips to Liverpool. Although admittedly, four of those have come from their two most recent visits.

The bookies really don’t fancy this injury-hit Liverpool side. Trent Alexander-Arnold and Luis Diaz were the unfortunate casualties from that 3-2 defeat at the Emirates last weekend. However given the form the English right-back has been in, some may see that as a positive – however unfairly.

The Reds certainly have a better chance of getting something from this match than the odds suggest. A lot of punters are agreeing after that midweek win. Their odds have shortened in recent days and may continue to do so. I’m backing Liverpool to get at least a point out of this one.

Selection: Liverpool or Draw Double Chance (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.10 (10Bet)
Stakes: 8/10

Best odds available as at 13:30 on October 13th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

More Liverpool vs Manchester City Tips

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Best bets are our best value football picks. Our tipsters employ their knowledge and identify the best value bets. Our best bets span a wide range of markets, ranging from 1X2, goals over/under to the Asian handicap. Stay up to date with bettingexpert to follow up on the latest best bets.