Scott Thornton’s Premier League Props: Six Best Bets

Scott Thornton has six prop bets for this weekend’s Premier League matches spread across three dates.

Saturday’s early game sees Everton host Arsenal. Later that day, we have Crystal Palace vs Brighton to look forward to before Aston Villa take on Nottingham Forest. Fulham vs Liverpool is Sunday’s first game, whetting the appetite for the Manchester Derby. Leicester square off against Newcastle on Monday Night Football. 

• Everton vs Arsenal: Over 32.5 Throws In The Match
• Crystal Palace vs Brighton: Over 12.5 Shots For Crystal Palace
• Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: Under 28.5 Throws In The Match
• Fulham vs Liverpool: Under 25.5 Free Kicks In The Match
• Manchester United vs Manchester City: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match
• Leicester vs Newcastle: Under 9.5 Shots For Leicester

Acca odds: 32.63

Everton vs Arsenal: A Sticky Fixture for the Gunners

England, Premier League, Saturday, 5th April, 12:30 (UK)

Everton put up a fight at Anfield on Wednesday night but they were unable to avoid their first defeat in 10 Premier League matches. David Moyes has enjoyed a triumphant return to the club and the danger of relegation is a distant memory. The Toffees will have no fear when they host the Gunners

Arsenal beat Fulham 2-1 on Tuesday night, but the result wasn’t quite as important as Bukayo Saka’s return. the Gunners’ hopes of catching Liverpool are very slim but the return of Saka gives them hope of Champions League success. Mikel Arteta will have one eye on the game against Real Madrid here so we may see a rotated starting 11.

The Toffees’ matches have seen the second most throws in the division with an average of 37.43 per match. There have been 33 throws or more in of their seven league games at Goodison Park since Moyes took the hot seat. Those matches have seen 38.43 throws on average. 

The Gunners’ matches rank amongst the lowest in the league for throws with an average of 29.87. However, we usually see plenty when they square off against Everton. There have been 33 throws or more in the last five head-to-heads. 

• Selection: Over 32.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Crystal Palace vs Brighton: The Eagles Shot Numbers are Soaring

England, Premier League, Saturday, 5th April, 15:00 (UK)

Crystal Palace were unusually poor as they drew 1-1 against Southampton in their last match. Oliver Glasner’s side had been enjoying an excellent run of form and will be keen to get back to winning ways here. 

Brighton have picked up 24 points from their 11 matches in 2025. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have picked up more. The Seagulls’ unbeaten run came to a crashing halt on Wednesday as they were hammered 3-0 by Aston Villa. They cannot afford another lacklustre display in a game that means so much to the supporters. 

The Eagles have shown plenty of attacking intent at Selhurst Park. They have had 13 shots or more in their last nine home matches across all competitions with an average of 16.44 per game. Palace have faced the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea and Aston Villa during that run.

The Seagulls are conceding an average of 12.27 shots per away game this season, which is just below the required mark for this bet to land. However, they allowed Palace to have 13 shots in the reverse fixture.

• Selection: Over 12.5 Shots For Crystal Palace (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: Passive Forest to Aid Villa Trend

England, Premier League, Saturday, 5th April, 17:30 (UK)

Aston Villa recorded an impressive 3-0 win away at Brighton in their last match. Marcus Rashford continued his purple patch by opening the scoring. Marco Asensio was also dangerous when he came on.  The Villains need to continue their winning run if they are to break into the top four. 

Anthony Elanga scored a fantastic goal to help Nottingham Forest beat Manchester United 1-0 in their last game. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side defended well as they absorbed an onslaught from United. They are now well-placed to qualify for the Champions League. 

Unai Emery’s side’s matches have seen the fewest throws in the league with an average of 26.43. The team are accomplished in possession and are willing to patiently play through their opponents. This has seen the throw counts dwindle. 

Nottingham Forest have the lowest possession stats in the division and will allow Villa to knock the ball around here. Nuno’s men also have the highest PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action). Their passive approach to the game means we should see very few throws here. There were just 16 when they played Villa earlier in the season.  

• Selection: Under 28.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Fulham vs Liverpool: Low Foul Counts When These Two Square Off

England, Premier League, Sunday, 6th April, 14:00 (UK)

Fulham succumbed to a 2-1 defeat at the Emirates midweek. The defeat has left them in 9th place, just five points off 5th. Marco Silva needs to rally his troops after a disappointing run of results. His team have won just one of their last five matches across all competitions. 

Arne Slot looks set to win the Premier League in his first season in charge of Liverpool. They have a comfortable lead over Arsenal and their elimination from the Champions League means fixture congestion won’t be an issue. The Reds could only manage a 2-2 draw when they faced Fulham earlier in the season. 

The Cottagers’ matches average just 21.2 fouls per game, the fifth-fewest in the Premier League and 0.07 less than Liverpool matches. The averages suggest we should see around three offsides. Therefore, our tip for this match is under 25.5 free kicks in the match. This bet has won in Fulham’s last nine competitive matches. 

Liverpool’s recent clashes with Fulham also yield promising numbers. There have been 25 free kicks or less in their last five league meeting with an average of 16 fouls and 5.4 offsides. 

• Selection: Under 25.5 Free Kicks In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Manchester United vs Manchester City: A Cagey Derby

England, Premier League, Sunday, 6th April, 16:30 (UK)

Manchester United’s dismal campaign continued midweek as they were beaten at the City Ground. The Red Devils will almost certainly have their worst-ever season in the Premier League. Ruben Amorim is unable to get United’s attack firing but he has beaten Pep Guardiola twice already this season. 

Pep Guardiola’s side are battling to finish in the Champions League places. They sit in 4th after their routine 2-0 win over Leicester midweek. The FA Cup is Manchester City’s only remaining chance of silverware but playing in Europe’s elite club competition is more important ahead of the transfer window.

The Red Devils have looked toothless going forward under Amorim. Their league matches under the Portuguese boss have seen an average of 24.5 shots. United have played City twice this season. Those matches have seen 20 and 17 attempts.

Under 25.5 shots has won in eight of Manchester City’s last nine Premier League matches. Those games have seen 22.11 shots on average. Pep has sought to shore things up defensively and his team aren’t quite as menacing as a result. 

• Selection: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Leicester vs Newcastle: The Magpies to Outsmart the Foxes

England, Premier League, Monday, 7th April, 20:00 (UK)

Ruud Van Nistelrooy has been unable to have an impact since joining Leicester. The Foxes have lost 16 of their last 17 matches in the Premier League. The woeful run of results has left them 12 points from safety. A return to the Championship looks inevitable at this stage. 

There were no signs of a hangover from their EFL Cup triumph midweek as Newcastle beat Brentford 2-1. The win leaves them just a point behind Manchester City in the battle for a place in the top four. The Magpies are aiming to qualify for the Champions League.

Leicester are averaging the fewest shots per game in the Premier League with 8.8. They have had nine shots or less in seven of their last eight matches across all competitions with an average of just 6.88 shots per game. 

Newcastle have a good record against Leicester. They have lost just one of the last six meetings between the teams. More importantly, the Foxes have failed to hit the 10-shot mark in any of those games. 

• Selection: Under 9.5 Shots For Leicester (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 08:33, April 3rd, 2025. Odds may now differ.

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