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Football | Tuesday, June 4, 2024 12:43 PM (Revised at: Saturday, June 15, 2024 7:08 AM)

Spain vs Croatia Prediction: Early Bird Euro 2024 Team News and Lineups Preview

Spain vs Croatia Prediction: Early Bird Euro 2024 Team News and Lineups Preview
Aflo Co. Ltd. / Alamy Stock Photo: Dani Omo of Spain and Alvaro Morata of Spain celebrate a goal

The two-time winners will debut on Saturday 15th June in Berlin, and with that, here’s our early look at a Spain vs Croatia prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview, courtesy of one of our European football experts, Daniele Fisichella

Prediction: Spain 2-0 Croatia

Group B is the toughest at Euro 2024, with three nations, including Italy, ranked in the world’s top 10 by FIFA, plus Albania, the surprise package of the qualifiers. Will there be a shock elimination? 

And if you want to check out Daniele’s Group Preview, click here.

Last updated: June 14th, 2024.

Player to watch: Alvaro Morata

Alvaro Morata is marmite, people either love or hate him, there’s not many in between. He’s one of those strikers when he’s through on goal you often really don’t fancy his chances. He’ll be down the middle of a Spanish team littered with top level creative outlets. They’ll provide the opportunities for Morata – he just needs to put it in the back of the net.

Looking at his season in Spain in 2023/24, Morata has 15 goals from 13.78xG in La Liga for Atleti, scoring five goals in eight Champions League starts. He’s had a good season. Not unbelievable, but 20+ goals at that level is not to be sniffed at. He’ll travel to Germany fancying his chances of getting on the scoresheet on multiple occasions.

Alvaro Morata of Spain celebrates a goal

Spain’s last 50 goals at the Euros have all been scored from inside the box. Their last goal from distance was Raul’s strike against Slovenia in the group stages of the 2000 edition. You’d imagine it’ll be more of the same as Spain passes their opponents to death game by game. Morata will be the main beneficiary inside that 18-yard-box, scoring four goals in six appearances in the qualifying stages.

Only Cristiano Ronaldo (8) and Antoine Griezmann (7) have scored more goals than Álvaro Morata (6) across the last two Euros tournaments – you’d be brave to back against him finding the net on multiple occasions once more.

  • Nation: Spain
  • Club: Atletico Madrid
  • Position: Striker
  • Selection: Alvaro Morata Anytime
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Odds: 2.87 [This section is an addition from the bettingexpert team and not Daniele Fisichella]

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Bettingexpert’s Free Euro 2024 Betting Guide is out NOW!

The bettingexpert Euro 2024 Betting Guide


Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:

  • Match Result (1X2)
  • Handicap Betting
  • Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)

Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:

  • 8 historical tournament analysis articles
  • 24 team-by-team articles
  • BETSiE projections for every team and group
  • Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes

For a free copy of the Euro 2024, click the button below:

Download the guide

Spain vs Croatia Prediction 1: renewed enthusiasm and two quick wingers

Euro 2024, Group B, Match Day 1, Saturday 15 June, 17:00 (UK)

Spain have gone through a rough patch in recent times, having played their last major final at Euro 2012. 

The exits against Russia and Morocco, in the last two World Cup have been a major blow to Spain’s belief and confidence in their style of play, but manager Luis de la Fuente has been able to breath fresh enthusiasm in a side that won the Nations League in 2022 and then topped their qualifying group for the Euros. 

La Roja have only lost one, 2-0 against Scotland, of their last 10 official games, and are considered the favorites (odds of 1.91) to win Group B. 

Up front Alvaro Morata, Dani Olmo and Joselu all had good seasons at club level and should guarantee the goals that will help Spain to qualify. 

The novelty is represented by the presence of two quick wingers, like Athletic Bilbao’s Nico Williams and teenager Lamine Yamal, who could add that much needed cutting-edge to a side that, as always, is built to dominate the possession.

Spain’s weak spot remains the defence, but, given how strong they’re in midfield, it will be tough,for any opposition, to get many scoring chances against them.

  • Spain vs Croatia Prediction 1: Spain Win (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.75
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 3/10

Spain vs Croatia Prediction 2: a last hurrah for the ‘golden generation’

Croatia have not been at their best during the qualifying campaign as they were defeated twice by Wales and Turkey, and finished runners-up behind Vincenzo Montella’s side. 

This will be the last major tournament for the majority of their star players, Luka Modric, Ivan Perisic and Marcelo Brozovic above all, many of whom don’t regularly play anymore for top sides in Europe. 

But Croatia, who since they were recognised as a country has qualified for seven of the last eight tournaments, are known as the masters of tight margins and a team that is always able to raise their level for the big occasions. 

Under manager Zlatko Dalic they’ve played a World Cup and a Nations League final (lost against Spain, on penalties), and finished third in Qatar, where they’ve only won two games within 90 minutes. 

Although Hoffenheim’s striker Andrej Kramarić averages almost a goal every three matches with the national side, Croatia continue to look a touch light up-front. 

Perhaps their best hope of squeezing through the group will be represented by playing slow-tempo and making the games as scrappy as possible. 

  • Spain vs Croatia Prediction 2: Both Teams To Score – No (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.80
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 1/10

Spain vs Croatia Prediction 3: the masters of tight margins

Will Euro 2024 prove to be a tournament too many for Croatia’s fading stars? The last group match against Italy will probably be decisive, and for their debut against Spain, it might well be the case of damage limitation. 

In fact, not only Spain are the only team in Group B that won their qualifying group, but only a year ago, they defeated both Italy and Croatia in the Nations League final four.

Excluding the friendlies, Spain have lost just one of their last 14 matches, but haven’t topped their group in the last two editions of the Euros. 

On the other hand Croatia have topped their group twice, in 2016 and 2018, in the last four major tournaments, and have only, within 90 minutes, lost three out of 22 games since Euros in France. 

  • Spain vs Croatia Prediction 3: Spain or Draw and Under 3 Goals (Bet Builder) (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.95
  • Bookmaker: bet365 
  • Stake: 6/10

Spain vs Croatia Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:15, June 3rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Spain vs Croatia Euro 2024 Team News and Possible Lineups: No Gavi, but plenty of talent for de la Fuente

Spain will miss their most talented player, Gavi, who suffered an ACL injury during the qualifiers. They will play with a back-four with Champions League winner Carvajal alongside Le Norman, Laporte and Gaya. 

The midfield remains La Roja’s best asset, along with Rodri, Pedri, and Fabian Ruiz. Up front, Atletico Madrid’s striker Alvaro Morata will be supported by Nico Williams, and there will be one of Ferran Torres and Lamine Yamal. 

There’s plenty of experience in Croatia’s camp; in fact, in their most recent game, seven players had more than 50 caps. Luka Modrić, Marcelo Brozović and Mateo Kovačić, with Kramarić up front, will lead the side. At the back, City’s Joško Gvardiol and Levekusen’s full-back Stanisic are the standout players. 

Spain possible starting lineup:
Unai Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Gaya; Fabian Ruiz, Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Morata, Ferran Torres.

Croatia possible starting lineup:
Livakovic; Juranovic, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Stanisic; Kovacic, Brozovic, Modric; Pasalic; Petkovic, Kramaric.

Euro 2024 Match Stats: a modern classic of European football

  • This will be the 11th meeting between Spain and Croatia and the third at the European Championship.
  • Spain have won six matches, Croatia two and there have been two draws.
  • The most recent contest, the Nations League final, ended 0-0 in Rotterdam 
  • Croatia have only lost, within 90 minutes, three out of 23 games since Euro 2016 in France. 
  • Shoot-outs excluded, Spain have lost only two of their last 22 matches at the UEFA EURO (W13 D7), it was  against Croatia and Italy in the 2016 edition. They have reached the knockout stages in six of their last  seven appearances, the only exception coming in 2004.
  • Croatia have reached the semi-finals in 50% of their FIFA World Cup appearances (3/6) whilst they  are yet to reach the final four at the UEFA EURO (0 semi-finals in 6 appearances).
  • Spain and Croatia’s last encounter at the Euros produced eight goals (5-3 a.e.t. to Spain in 2021), the highest scoring game in the tournament this century and second-highest overall after the nine-goal encounter between France and Yugoslavia in 1960 (4-5).

Spain Group B Euro 2024 Fixtures: A repeat of the 2012 final next

  • Vs Italy
  • Vs Albania

Croatia Group B Euro 2024 Fixtures: Ending the group stage against the holders

  • Vs Albania
  • Vs Italy

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