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Analysis | Monday, May 13, 2024 9:53 AM (Revised at: Thursday, June 13, 2024 10:16 AM)

Euro 2024 Group B Prediction: Betting Tips Preview

Euro 2024 Group B Prediction: Betting Tips Preview
PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo: Italy's Leonardo Bonucci celebrating with the trophy after winning the UEFA Euro 2020 Final

Welcome to our Euro 2024 Group B prediction and betting tips preview, where we analyse each one of the four teams included in what has been described as the ‘group of death’. 

In fact, the holders, Italy, have been drawn together with the Nations League winner, Spain, and 2022 World Cup bronze medalist Croatia. Albania is, on paper, the group’s weakest side but underestimate them at your peril. Interestingly, Sylvinho’s men have had a better qualifying campaign than the Azzurri and the Croats and are a young and courageous side. 

Group B’s six games will each be played in a different city, with the opening fixture, Spain vs Croatia, scheduled for Saturday 15 June at the Olympiastadion of Berlin. Our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has dissected for us each team’s strengths and weaknesses and picked two value bets from Group B. 

And (spoiler alert!) he’s not confident the Azzurri will hold on to their European champions crown…

Bettingexpert’s Free Euro 2024 Betting Guide is out NOW!

The bettingexpert Euro 2024 Betting Guide


Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:

  • Match Result (1X2)
  • Handicap Betting
  • Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)

Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:

  • 8 historical tournament  analysis articles
  • 24 team-by-team articles
  • BETSiE projections for every team and group
  • Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes

For a free copy of the Euro 2024, click the button below:

Download the guide

Euro 2024 Group B Overview Prediction: a tough draw for the holders

Euro 2024, June 15th – July 14th

2021 winners Italy have been placed in the ‘group of death’ in virtue of their qualification as runners-up behind England. 

The Azzurri, who failed to make it to the last two World Cups, would have certainly liked to avoid three-time winners Spain and Croatia, although both these sides, just like Italy, are going through a transition period.

Spalletti Drafted In

After Roberto Mancini resigned in the middle of the qualifying campaign, Luciano Spalletti was called to quickly fix a situation that was heading towards a disaster. 

The former Napoli manager has achieved his short-term target. 

The Azzurri picked up four out of six points against Ukraine and have only lost one (3-1 against England at Wembley) of the seven games they’ve played under the new boss.

Now Spalletti’s most difficult task is to restore that pride and enthusiasm that carried Italy towards a very unpredictable success at the last Euros. 

Italy has had big issues at creating and scoring chances due to the lack of world-class forwards. 

They have quality in abundance in midfield, with the likes of Nicolò Barella and Jorginho, but a lot will depend on the form of Federico Chiesa and Nicolò Zaniolo, the two players whose accelerations can change games in a flash. 

Goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma and right-back Giovanni Di Lorenzo are the only ones left from the defence that won the Euros three years ago as Italy hopes Scudetto winner Alessandro Bastoni and Atalanta’s Giorgio Scalvini will be able to fill the boots of Chiellini and Bonucci. 

Spain, under manager Luis de la Fuente, is still trying to find their own identity, but, on paper, looks like the most talented team.

They’ll certainly be without their best man, Gavi, who suffered a serious knee injury back in November 2023, but can count on the international experience of players like Rodri and the unpredictability of Barça’s teenager Lamine Yamal as well as Nico Williams from Athletic Bilbao. 

A Tough One to Predict 

La Roja are the favourite (odds of 1.91) to finish top, but this is probably one of the toughest groups to predict. 

Up front Alvaro Morata, Dani Olmo and Joselu all had good seasons at club level and should guarantee the goals that will help Spain to qualify for the knockout stage. 

Although they’ve only conceded five goals in qualifiers, Spain’s weak spot remains the defence, where Robin Le Normand (Real Sociedad) and former Manchester City’s Ameryc Laporte, now playing in Saudi Arabia, should be the starting centre-backs. 

Croatia had a tough qualifying campaign as they lost two games and finished behind Turkey. 

Since they were recognised as a country, Croatia has qualified for seven of the last eight tournaments but this will be the last participation for their golden generation (Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovc and Ivan Perisic). 

Manager Zlatko Dalic, who has led the team to a World Cup and a Nations League final, hopes he’ll be able to squeeze the last drops of energy and magic from his star players. 

The Croats are one of the most competitive sides in international football and real masters of managing tight margins in games. 

They finished third at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, yet they won only two games within 90 minutes.  

Sylvinho Leading Albanian Charge

Albania is at its second-ever appearance at the Euros and has been the great story of the qualifiers.  

They are managed by Sylvinho, who took the job last September and managed to finish ahead of the Czech Republic and Poland. 

The former Arsenal and Barcelona defender, who worked for three years as Brazil assistant coach, changed the team’s formation to a more attacking 4-2-3-1 and encouraged the FA to scout around the world to find players, of Albanian descent, eligible to represent the national side.

Thanks to clever scouting Albania enrolled North Macedonian-born Jasir Asani, who plays in Japan, and has already scored three goals in 11 appearances, as well as defender Ivan Balliu, a Barcelona youth-product, who represented Spain up to under-17 level, and he’s now playing for Rayo Vallecano. 

Given that Group B includes three teams in the top 10 of the FIFA World Ranking, Albania might need a miracle to qualify for the next stage. 

But a team with experienced defenders like Berat Djimsiti and Elseid Hysaj as well as Inter’s Kristjan Asslani and Fulham’s Armando Broja can’t be underestimated. 

Euro 2024 Group B Prediction 1: the Azzurri can finish top

Spain are the only team in Group B that won their qualifying group.

Let’s face it, against the likes of Scotland, Norway and Georgia, Luis de la Fuente’s men did not have an impossible task in hand. 

Yet after a bad start to their campaign, with a 2-0 defeat at Hampden, La Roja picked themselves up and won the remaining seven fixtures. 

Spain is certainly a team in transition and lacks some of the superstars that featured in past tournaments. 

However they remain, at least on paper, one of Europe’s top four sides and only a year ago were crowned Nations League champions as they defeated two of the teams they’ll play in this group, Italy and Croatia (albeit only on penalties). 

Excluding the friendlies, Spain have lost just one of their last 14 matches, but haven’t topped their group in the last two editions of the Euros.  

Spain are fourth favorite to win the tournament (odds of 9.00) and the Azzurri are right behind with odds of 15.00. 

Despite Italy avoiding the play-off only in virtue of a better goal scoring record than Ukraine, they remain a very good side, full of young players already established at a good level that can only improve with time. 

Both sides are rebuilding their identity and whereas Spain have been more consistent in terms of results, Italy have tasted success in a major tournament more recently. 

The Italians have got an easier start of the Euros as they’ll face Albania on 15 June, whereas Spain’s debut is against Croatia. 

Starting with three points could be massive in such a tight group, especially as Spain vs Italy will be the second game on 20 June in Gelsenkirchen. 

A repeat of the Euro 2021 semi-final, won on penalties by the Azzurri, could seal the first spot in Group B.

  • Group B Prediction 1: Group Forecast: Italy 1st, Spain 2nd (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 4.50
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 6/10

Euro Group B Prediction 2: No medals for Spalletti’s men

Qualifying to the knockout round of a competition where only eight of 24 participating teams are eliminated in the first phase should be a very achievable target for a team of the caliber of Italy. 

But in tournament football being able to rest players on the third match of the group, or being drawn in the Round of 16 against a weaker team, can make a huge difference. 

Therefore, assuming Italy will top Group B, they’ll have a good chance to win their Round of 16 tie. 

At both Euro 2016 and 2016, four out of the six group winners advanced to the quarter-finals. 

But of the four teams that failed to qualify three were underdogs, such as Hungary, Croatia and Ukraine, and the only surprise was represented by France being knocked out on penalties by Switzerland in 2021. 

Normally big teams that win the groups also win the first knockout game, and this could be the case also for Spalletti’s men. 

The Italians have only lost, inside 90 minutes, one (the 2012 final against Spain) of their last nine knockout games at the Euros. 

In spite of their absence from the last two World Cups, nobody would want to face the current holders in a winner-takes-it-all tie. 

Some of Italy’s best players might not have a lot of experience with the national side, but they’ve learned their ropes in knockout matches thanks to Serie A team’s recent excellent records in European competitions. 

In fact, Italy is almost re-experiencing its 80s-90s’ golden era’ with Fiorentina and Atalanta reaching the Conference League and Europa League finals this season, after that last year, three teams (Inter, Roma and Fiorentina) got till the end in the major tournaments. 

Can Italy win the Euros again? Extremely unlikely. 

In the quarter-finals, they could potentially face the hosts, Germany, a team that is perhaps on the same level as the Azzurri but that could represent the real surprise and the value bet (it pays 3.75 for Julian Naglesmann’s team to reach the final), of these Euros. 

  • Group B Prediction 2: Stage of Elimination: Italy Quarter-Finals (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 3.75
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 4/10

Euro 2024 Group B Prediction odds via bet365 as at 15:50, May 9th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

The Predicted Group B Standings

A group with three teams in the top 10 of the FIFA ranking is always going to be tough to predict. 

Equally it is hard to imagine the winner of Euro 2024 will come out from the ‘group of death’ and it’s also possible that all four teams will end up taking points out of each other. 

Albania have demonstrated during the qualifying campaign they are no pushovers, whereas this one might prove to be a tournament too many for Croatia’s fading stars. 

Since the Euros were extended to 24 teams in 2016, achieving three points has been enough to qualify as one of the four best third-place teams. 

Eight years ago, Portugal qualified in France, thanks to three draws, and then went on to win the tournament. 

Unless Albania get heavily beaten in the first two games by Italy and Croatia, they’ll still be in with a chance to advance to the Round of 16 when they play Spain on 24 June in Düsseldorf.

Group B Standings Prediction

  1. Italy
  2. Spain
  3. Croatia
  4. Albania

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