BETSiE Has Man United On Course For Worst Season Since 1988/89

As Liverpool at Anfield edges closer on the horizon this weekend, and following a limp showing in the Champions League, we thought it may be the best time to ask the question: how bad could this already historically poor Premier League season get for Man United?

With the help of BETSiE, football editor Sam Ingram looks ahead at United’s projected top-flight campaign. Not only that, but we ask Mikael Silvestre his thoughts on Erik ten Hag’s position following a festive period with no European football to look forward to.

In this article:

• BETSiE Predicts Points Return Probabilities
• BETSiE Predicts the Premier League Table
• Man United in the Premier League Era
• Mikael Silvestre on Erik ten Hag
• Man United Crashes Out of Champions League
• Safer Gambling

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BETSiE Predicts Points return probabilities

As you can see, BETSiE predicts that Man United will finish ninth with 56.5 points, accompanied by a goal difference of -4. That would be the fewest points earned by a Man United side since the 51 points in 1988/89.

And it’s no surprise. After all, there are only three teams in the leading divisions in Germany, Spain, England and Italy who have lost more games than Man United in 2023/24; Burnley, Union Berlin, and Almeria.

Points total	Probability	Last time	2pts for win era
60 pts or more	30.23%	1966/67	x
59 pts or less	69.77%	1990/91
58 pts or less	63.81%	2021/22
57 pts or less	57.20%	1951/52	x
56 pts or less	50.56%	1986/87
55 pts or less	43.62%	1958/59	x
54 pts or less	37.29%	NA
53 pts or less	31.05%	1963/64	x
52 pts or less	25.16%	1947/48	x
51 pts or less	20.15%	1988/89
50 pts or less	15.72%	1949/50	x
49 pts or less	11.79%	NA
48 pts or less	8.70%	1989/90
47 pts or less	6.15%	1976/77	x
46 pts or less	4.27%	1952/53	x
45 pts or less	2.85%	1978/79	x
44 pts or less	1.96%	1925/26	x
43 pts or less	1.24%	1970/71	x
42 pts or less	0.70%	1977/78	x
41 pts or less	0.43%	1928/29	x
40 pts or less	0.27%	1926/27	x

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BETSiE Predicts: The 2023/34 Premier League Table

Updated: 11th December 2023

SITION	CLUB	GAMES	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	POINTS
1	Arsenal	38	24.3	7.7	6.0	75.1	34.7	40.4	80.7
2	Manchester City	38	23.9	7.3	6.7	83.8	37.9	46.0	79.2
3	Liverpool	38	23.0	8.5	6.4	80.3	42.0	38.3	77.6
4	Aston Villa	38	21.6	6.7	9.8	75.3	50.7	24.6	71.4
5	Newcastle	38	20.2	6.4	11.4	78.4	48.4	30.0	67.1
6	Tottenham	38	18.6	7.7	11.7	72.2	57.4	14.7	63.5
7	Brighton	38	16.1	9.9	12.0	68.9	61.3	7.7	58.3
8	Chelsea	38	16.6	8.4	13.0	70.0	55.7	14.4	58.1
9	Manchester Utd	38	17.3	4.7	16.0	53.3	58.2	-4.9	56.5
10	Brentford	38	14.5	9.0	14.5	59.0	53.1	5.9	52.5
11	West Ham	38	14.3	7.7	15.9	57.9	68.8	-10.9	50.7
12	Fulham	38	13.0	8.1	16.9	55.0	62.2	-7.2	47.1
13	Bournemouth	38	12.7	8.8	16.4	53.3	66.9	-13.6	47.0
14	Everton	38	15.6	7.0	15.4	52.9	52.6	0.3	43.8
15	Wolverhampton	38	11.5	8.8	17.8	49.2	65.2	-16.0	43.2
16	Crystal Palace	38	10.6	9.2	18.2	41.1	57.8	-16.6	41.0
17	Nottingham	38	9.3	10.4	18.4	41.5	62.0	-20.5	38.2
18	Burnley	38	7.0	7.0	24.0	37.9	72.8	-34.9	28.0
19	Luton	38	6.3	7.3	24.4	39.7	78.9	-39.2	26.2
20	Sheffield Utd	38	5.3	6.2	26.6	29.9	88.4	-58.5	21.9

 

BETSiE’s take on how Man United’s season will end up is a stark contrast to years gone by, finishing 25 points off the eventual Premier League champions.

Don’t just take our word for it, have a look at how Man United have conducted themselves in the Premier League era table below…

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Man United’s Final Standings in the Premier League era

Season	Games	Wins	Draws	Losses	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2023-24 (projected)	38	17.3	4.7	16	53.3	58.2	-4.9	56.5
2022-23	38	23	6	9	58	43	15	75
2021-22	38	16	10	12	57	57	0	58
2020-21	38	21	11	6	73	44	29	74
2019-20	38	18	12	8	66	36	30	66
2018-19	38	19	9	10	65	54	11	66
2017-18	38	25	6	7	68	28	40	81
2016-17	38	18	15	5	54	29	25	69
2015-16	38	19	9	10	49	35	14	66
2014-15	38	20	10	8	62	37	25	70
2013-14	38	19	7	12	64	43	21	64
2012-13	38	28	5	5	86	43	43	89
2011-12	38	28	5	5	89	33	56	89
2010-11	38	23	11	4	78	37	41	80
2009-10	38	27	4	7	86	28	58	85
2008-09	38	28	6	4	68	24	44	90
2007-08	38	27	6	5	80	22	58	87
2006-07	38	28	5	5	83	27	56	89
2005-06	38	25	8	5	72	34	38	83
2004-05	38	22	11	5	58	26	32	77
2003-04	38	23	6	9	64	35	29	75
2002-03	38	25	8	5	74	34	40	83
2001-02	38	24	5	9	87	45	42	77
2000-01	38	24	8	6	79	31	48	80
1999-00	38	28	7	3	97	45	52	91
1998-99	38	22	13	3	80	37	43	79
1997-98	38	23	8	7	73	26	47	77
1996-97	38	21	12	5	76	44	32	75
1995-96	38	25	7	6	73	35	38	82
1994-95	42	26	10	6	77	28	49	88
1993-94	42	27	11	4	80	38	42	92
1992-93	42	24	12	6	67	31	36	84

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Mikael Silvestre on Erik ten Hag

Before the crunch Bayern Munich match-up at Old Trafford, we asked former Man United defender, Mikael Silvestre, if Erik ten Hag’s job was on the line if the Reds were to fail to qualify for the latter stages of European competition, be it the Europa League or the Champions League.

“I think the pressure on Erik ten Hag is to improve their position in the table, and he is for sure disappointed right now.”

“But there is already pressure, so I don´t think it will change his position regardless if they are qualifying from their group or not.”

“Right now the form of the team tells you that they are not equipped to win any of the competitions, so I don´t think it will put extra pressure on Erik ten Hag.”

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Toothless Man United Crash Out of the Champions League

Manchester United crashed out of Europe with barely a whimper on Tuesday evening. Bayern Munich didn’t need to get out of second gear in what transpired to be a very comfortable outing for Thomas Tuchel’s gang of merry men at Old Trafford, spearheaded by England captain Harry Kane. Only one shot on target troubled Manuel Neuer in net on an evening where nothing short of three points would have granted United safe passage to the knockout stages.

Instead, the thousands in the stands at Old Trafford and the millions behind a television screen were treated to a United performance that severely lacked quality. This is a club with a storied history on the continent. The statue of Charlton, Law, and Best outside of the ground best explains what this institution is about. But you’d have never have guessed. The Manchester United many of us were so familiar with for decades is seemingly now a shrinking violet on the European stage.

There was very little to shout home about in the final third. Rasmus Højlund cut a lonesome figure up top. Think back, and you’ll struggle to recall one effort on goal that remotely threatened to open the scoring for Erik ten Hag’s side.

It’s a tale told too often this season for United. Finishing bottom of a Champions League group involving Copenhagen and Galatasaray is simply not good enough, but their woes don’t stop in Europe. Bournemouth’s 0-3 win in Manchester only a few days ago now stands as United’s most recent and most embarrassing foray into domestic football in recent months.

It’s no wonder why our predictive model banishes Man United into mid-table obscurity by the time May rolls around. There needs to be much on the pitch in terms of output if Erik ten Hag and his players are to change their fortunes. But, right now, it’s difficult to see them challenging the likes of Brighton and Aston Villa higher up the table – imagine saying that in the pub only a few years ago.

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SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.