The Cards Column Tips: MD18 Player Cards, Team Bookings and Referee Data

Get ready for a pre-Christmas helping of football, starting on Thursday with a game in the Premier League and League One – The Cards Column brings you the latest referee data and appointments ahead of all the action.

Three bets feature – all across the top flight – with the televised action in the spotlight. Both match picks won last weekend, so will it be more of the same our expert, Matt Kirby?

• West Ham vs Man Utd: Over 3 Cards & Each Team to Receive A Second-Half Card
• Liverpool vs Arsenal: Wataru Endo To Be Booked
• Wolves vs Chelsea: Over 1 Wolves Card & Over 2 Chelsea Cards

Odds via bet365 as of 20:00, December 20th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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The Data from the Premier League and the Championship: Team Bookings and Referee Data

It’s been in the news, but Rebecca Welch becomes the first female referee in the Premier League. She oversees Fulham v Burnley. There’s a return to top-flight action for Darren England.

David Coote had a busy afternoon last Sunday in Brentford’s defeat to Aston Villa. He’ll be hoping for a quieter afternoon on Christmas Eve. Elsewhere, Thomas Kirk makes his Championship debut when Norwich welcome Huddersfield to Carrow Road.

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The Data from League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data

Fans of the MLS will recognise a name in League Two. Alex Chilowicz has swapped the States for England, and we’ll see him officiating in Leagues One & Two. He starts with Sutton vs Mansfield.

Sam Allison warms up for his Premier League debut with a League Two clash at Forest Green. While high card issuers Seb Stockbridge and Declan Bourne both have games.

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West Ham vs Man Utd: The Christmas cards are out!

England, Premier League, Saturday, December 23rd, 12:30 (UK)

Let’s start with the Saturday lunchtime game from London Stadium, where it’s eighth against seventh.

West Ham put Wolves to the sword with a comfortable 3-0 win last Sunday, while Man Utd earned a battling point against Liverpool at Anfield. The narrative will be about David Moyes getting one over his former employer.

When the appointments came out I spotted Simon Hooper on this one. Now we’re reaching the midway stage of the season, it’s fair to say Hooper has increased his card count this time around. So far, he’s averaging 5.8 cards, and this looks like a game in which he can maintain that figure.

With that in mind, I’m rolling out the old favourite – over three cards and each team to pick up a card in the second half. It comes out at 2.00 using the Bet365 bet builder.

Hooper has given 4+ cards in 85% of his league games this season. And in those matches where he’s shown four or more, he’s dished out two to each team in 73%. To me, the ref seems happier to reach into his pocket this time around.

Now, let’s look at the home/away records for both sides. The Hammers average 2.8 per home game, while United average 2.4 per road trip. So, that matches up with the expectancy of cards in this one.

Both meetings finished 1-0 to the home sides last season, which takes you towards a tight, low-scoring contest. The match at Old Trafford did see four cards, with both sides seeing a caution after the break.

And it’s worth saying that Hooper has landed this bet in a couple of his recent middles, including Liverpool’s win at Sheffield Utd and the feisty Man City vs Spurs game.

You have to return to the opening weekend of fixtures for Hooper in charge of either of these sides. He oversaw Man Utd’s controversial home win over Wolves, showing five cautions.

The equation seems pretty straightforward. We’ve got two sides that average over 2 cards per game and a referee averaging 5.8 cards per game. That means we can take the cards to be out just in time for Christmas.

• Selection: Over 3 Cards & Each Team to Receive A Second-Half Card
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

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Wataru Endo To Be Booked: No Endo of fouls

England, Premier League, Saturday, December 23rd, 17:30 (UK)

Who’ll be top at Christmas? That’s what is at stake when Liverpool welcome Arsenal to Anfield on Saturday evening. Heading into this round of fixtures, the Gunners sit pretty like the angel at the top of the tree, but by the time this kicks off, Aston Villa could have overtaken them both.

A winner in this one will put themselves into pole position for this busy programme, so with two attack-minded teams, we could see plenty of Chris Kavanagh.

The referee has had a good run of games and is now averaging four cards per 90, making him one of the lower issuers. But in these big games, he does tend to show them.

Kavanagh oversaw Arsenal’s visit to Chelsea, which saw six cautions. Then last month, he took charge of Liverpool’s trip to Man City – which saw four more.

One of the names he took at the Etihad was Wataru Endo, who only featured for a five-minute cameo.

I know I mentioned Endo at the end of last weekend’s player pick, and he did get booked, so I’m going to have to tip him properly in this one. The defensive midfielder has seen three yellows in his last five appearances in the league.

Two of these cards have been when Endo has played the full 90, while that aforementioned cameo at City. In all, his three cards have come across 233 minutes of football. That’s a card every 78 minutes since the end of last month.

Endo was priced at 5.00 last weekend against Man Utd. Maybe the bookies have caught on because he’s slightly shorter this time at 4.75. But that card record speaks for itself.

In those three starts recently, his foul counts have been 2, 3 & 4. Meanwhile, he started against Brentford last month and made four more fouls. He certainly can catch the referee’s attention in this one making that 4.75 worth a play.

• Selection: Wataru Endo to be Booked
• Best Odds: 4.75
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

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Wolves vs Chelsea: The nightmare before Christmas

England, Premier League, Sunday, December 24th, 13:00 (UK)

We’ve got Premier League football on Christmas Eve for the first time since 1995 when Wolves welcome Chelsea to Molineux.

I’ve had this game on the radar for a few weeks, as we have the perfect storm for cards, and the appointment makers at the PGMOL have given us a decent referee.

Let’s start with fouls. Wolves top the charts in the Premier League (13.2), with Chelsea in third (12.3). This could mean a stop-start game with us hearing plenty of David Coote’s whistle.

Mauricio Pochettino’s side sit second in the yellow card count (50), with Wolves not far behind in joint-third on 46. What’s more, both sides have seen three reds each.

Fouls look great, as do the cards, so over to referee Coote. He’s overseen two games across the PL and Championship since returning from VAR duty at the U17 World Cup, showing 17 yellows and two reds. Ten of those cautions and both reds came in that explosive game between Brentford and Aston Villa last Sunday.

Coote took charge of Chelsea earlier in the season, showing six cards in their trip to Bournemouth – five of those went the way of Blues players.

Given all the numbers, combine over 1 Wolves card and over 2 Chelsea cards to get a 2.15 bet.

Chelsea average 3.6 cards per away game – the joint-most in the league. They’ve seen 3+ cards in six of their eight away games and across 12 overall.

Wolves, meanwhile, average 2.6 cards per home league game. Gary O’Neil’s side have picked up 2+ cards in 13 of 17 league games, including in five of eight at home. Some of their booking points totals at Molineux have seen them hit 50, 65 and 75.

Everything looks set for a fiery game in the Black Country. When the sides met here last season, Wolves ran out 1-0 winners in a game that saw seven cards. The split in that one was Wolves 2-5 Chelsea – same again, please!

• Selection: Over 1 Wolves Card & Over 2 Chelsea Cards
• Best Odds: 2.15
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

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