football | Friday, December 1, 2023 10:13 AM

The Cards Column Tips, Predictions, and Best Bets: MD14 Player Cards, Team Bookings and Referee Data

Matt Kirby

The Premier League and Championship take centre stage in this week’s Cards Column, with FA Cup second-round action for the lower leagues.

Matthew Kirby brings you the latest referee appointments and data. Plus, he’s lined up two match picks and a player pick to attack.

Hull vs Watford: Both teams 20+ booking points & Watford most booking points
Leeds vs Middlesbrough: Sam Greenwood To Be Booked
Swansea vs Huddersfield: Over 3 cards & each team a card in the second half

Odds via bet365 & Sky Bet as of 19:00, November 30th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

The Data from the Premier League and the Championship: Team Bookings and Referee Data

Man City vs Spurs is the standout fixture this weekend, where Simon Hooper has the responsibility of overseeing matters. His last game involving Spurs saw their opponents (Liverpool) end with nine men.

Chris Kavanagh is in charge of the six-pointer at the bottom of the Premier League, as Burnley host Sheffield United at Turf Moor. And Rob Jones oversees a classic top-flight clash between Newcastle and Man Utd.

James Linington gave a penalty, showed a red card and a total of 105 booking points in midweek. He’ll hope for a quieter game between Millwall and Sunderland. Meanwhile, high-card issuer Stephen Martin has Swansea vs Huddersfield.

Hull vs Watford: Hornets to sting as Tigers bite back

England, Championship, Saturday, December 2nd, 15:00 (UK)

This week’s preview starts with something of a bigger price in this eye-catching Championship clash on the River Humber.

Hull are riding high in sixth and continue to improve under the impressive Liam Rosenior. They dismantled relegation-threatened Rotherham in midweek, but are set for a sterner test against this Watford outfit.

The Hornets find themselves in mid-table. They saw their three-match unbeaten away run end at Leicester in a game where they lost their heads, picking up a huge 95 booking points from the 115 match total.

Now, that does lead me down the cards route in this one at the MKM Stadium, especially since in six of Hull’s last seven home league games, both teams received 20+ booking points.

Watford have seen at least two cards in seven of their eight away league games this term, which makes me think they’ll get a similar amount here. Overall, they average 3.3 cards per away game, which is the most in the second tier. Hull average 2 cards per home game and have had 2+ cards in six of their last seven.

I’m surprised that John Busby has only shown 4+ cards in 62% of his games because he always seems to use them to keep control. And Watford can get things to spill over, so I’m half-expecting to see a fair few cards as Busby’s patience is tested.

While on Busby, it’s worth saying he’s already done two Hull games this season. Those have seen 13 cards in total, an average of 6.5 per 90.

So, given I’m expecting cards, I’m more than willing to add Watford to have the most booking points as a second leg of a Bet Builder on Sky Bet at 9/4 (3.25).

The visiting side has picked up the most booking points at Hull in seven of nine games already this term. In four of those recent six, where each team received 20+ bp, the away side collected the most cards.

The Hornets can add to that figure, especially after picking up the most booking points in their last six road trips. On top of all of that, Watford rank second in the Championship for fouls committed (13.2) compared to Hull’s 8.9, which is the second-fewest.

Oh, and Hull top the charts for fouls won per 90 at this level (14.6), so expect the likes of Jaden Philogene, Scott Twine and Jason Lokilo to draw fouls from this robust Watford side.

Selection: Each team 20+ booking points & Watford most booking points
Best Odds: 3.25
Bookmaker: SkyBet
Stake: 7/10

Sam Greenwood To Be Booked: Someone with a point to prove

England, Championship, Saturday, December 2nd, 15:00 (UK)

It was a bit of a struggle to pick out a player pick this week, but I’ve landed on someone who, according to WhoScored.com, averages the most fouls per game in the Championship.

At 2.1 fouls per 90, Sam Greenwood appears to be the way to go this week. Especially when you factor in that he moved from Leeds to Boro, so the midfielder will definitely have a point to prove on his Elland Road return.

Greenwood is most likely to find himself tracking back to cope with the runs of Dan James. If Crysencio Summerville swaps flanks, then there’s the chance of doing some defensive work up against him as well.

In eight Championship starts and five sub appearances, Greenwood has seen four yellows, so he is one away from reaching the five accumulation for a one-match ban.

Also, he is known for committing plenty of fouls during matches. He gave away six free kicks at Leicester, three against Plymouth and Stoke, as well as a couple in games against Norwich and Bristol City.

So, with his high foul counts in recent matches, there’s a chance he could catch the eye of referee Darren England. With England averaging 6.2 cards per game and these two sides likely to be vying for a top-six spot come May, then there could be tension in this one that sees the returning Greenwood see yellow.

Selection: Sam Greenwood to be booked
Best Odds: 3.25
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 8/10

Swansea vs Huddersfield: Martin to take centre stage

England, Championship, Saturday, December 2nd, 15:00 (UK)

Now, the majority of these picks tend to be team-related. However, with Swansea averaging 2 cards per league game and Huddersfield just 1.8, it’s fair to say that this is a punt based on the referee, Stephen Martin.

Now, the Staffordshire official is averaging a whopping 6.1 cards per league outing this term. And just last weekend, he dished out eight cards in Norwich v QPR – all in the second half.

Martin’s last six league games have seen card tallies of 8, 9, 4, 8, 3 & 8, so they are quite high numbers compared to some of his colleagues on the Select Group 2.

Given that Martin has been partial to his cards, then over 4.5 cards line on Bet365 at 1.83 looks a pretty solid angle. However, I’d prefer to go in a slightly different direction at a bigger price.

The tried and tested route of over 3 cards and a card to each team in the second half certainly appeals at 1.87 (20/23). That’s considering Martin’s average of 6.1 cards per game, which frequently sees him dish out the discipline in the second half.

The arbiter averages 4.7 cards during the second half of his games this season, which appears to be the most of any fellow referee in the Football League.

Looking through Martin’s match list leads me to Swansea’s trip to Blackburn in October, which saw eight cards, with six coming after half-time. If this could follow suit, we could well be on to a nice little play, especially with the Swans drawing the fourth-most fouls in the league.

And last season’s meeting here in April saw referee Matt Donohue show six cautions in a 1-0 win for Swansea. So, if history could repeat itself, then this is an angle I like the look of.

Selection: Over 3 cards & each team a card in the second half
Best Odds: 1.87
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 10/10

SAFER GAMBLING

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