football | Thursday, September 29, 2022 2:19 PM (Revised at: Friday, September 30, 2022 2:12 PM)

The Line’s Off Oct 1st-2nd: 3 Shots Lines the Bookies have Wrong this Weekend

Scott Thornton

The Line’s Off Oct 1st-2nd: The Shots Line

Domestic leagues return this week after the international break, and this period of the season will prove to be crucial. The winter World Cup will grind things to a halt ahead of the New Year so teams will want through this hectic period of games to give themselves the best chance of achieving their aims come May.

I’ve looked at the shots markets ahead of the weekend’s matches in order to find some value.

In this article:

Shots Market Preview
Arsenal vs Tottenham Preview & Best Bet
West Ham vs Wolves Preview & Best Bet
Man City vs Man Utd Preview & Best Bet

Shots Market Preview

There are a number of interesting matchups this weekend as the season resumes. As always, the shots markets give us a great opportunity to find some value. Lots of UK bookmakers have them priced up and ready to go. There are a few standouts that I’ll discuss in this preview.

I have scoured the data and used a model for predicting the number of shots each team will have to assess where the best bets of the weekend are. The model factors in a team’s recent form, quality of opposition, averages over longer periods and previous meetings between the sides.

The number of shots a team has can be quite unpredictable. Goals change games, especially early on, but this method has proven to be profitable long term.

Arsenal vs Tottenham Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, October 1st, 12:30 (UK)

Arsenal spent the international break top of the table after some stellar performances in their opening matches. However, there are some question marks about Arteta’s men after they were beaten at Old Trafford. The next couple of games will give them the perfect opportunity to showcase that they are serious contenders this season.

Arsenal have had a heap of shots in their recent home matches, and I expect that to continue here. Tottenham will provide a stern test for Arsenal, but Conte’s men are often happy to invite pressure.

The model predicts that Arsenal will have 17.95 shots in this game. Arsenal have had 22, 22 and 19 shots in their three home matches so far, while Spurs have conceded 16, 17 and 14 shots in their three away matches.

Arsenal vs Tottenham Best Bet

Arsenal to have over 14.5 shots with Unibet looks to be a good bet here. Arteta’s men look much improved this season, and a win here would really lay down a marker in terms of them being genuine title contenders. The betting model’s predicted line is also comfortably above the required mark for the net to land.

Selection: Over 14.5 Arsenal Shots (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.75 (Unibet)
Stakes: 8/10

More Arsenal vs Tottenham Tips

West Ham vs Wolves Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, October 1st, 17:30 (UK)

West Ham won a lot of plaudits last season but they have started this campaign poorly. They face a Wolves side that has also struggled to get going so far this season. The loser will find themselves in the bottom three.
Bruno Lage’s side have created a lot of chances despite the poor start. They have racked up the shots in the league so far, especially away from home. Wolves have managed 15, 20 and 17 shots in their three away matches, and they should get a decent number here.

Wolves had 14 shots at the London Stadium last season, and the model predicts that the visitors will have 14.31 shots here. Barring an early goal, I’m expecting Bruno Lage’s side to create a good number of opportunities this weekend.

West Ham vs Wolves Best Bet

Over 10.5 shots for Wolves is priced at 1.80 with bet365. This has landed in three of Wolves’ four trips to West Ham since being promoted. It has also landed in seven of the eight meetings between the sides since 2018.

Selection: Over 10.5 Wolves Shots (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.80 (bet365)
Stakes: 8/10

More West Ham vs Wolves Tips

Man City vs Man United Preview

England, Premier League, Sunday, October 2nd, 14:00 (UK)

Man City come into the derby as hot favourites. They are fancied by almost all to lift the title again this season. Erik Ten Hag’s United side have recorded a couple of decent wins in their recent matches, but they will spend much of Sunday’s clash on the backfoot as City pile on the pressure.

Guardiola’s side should have a lot of attempts in this one. They have had 24 and 23 shots in the last two meetings between these sides at the Etihad. City are also averaging 19.3 shots per game in their last 10 home league matches.

The model predicts that City will exceed the 20 shot mark here. Liverpool and Arsenal had 17 and 16 shots when they went to Old Trafford this season; illustrating that United haven’t mastered the art of keeping their opponents under wraps just yet.

Man City vs Man Utd Best Bet

Over 18.5 shots for Pep’s team is priced at 2.00 with bet365. Erling Haaland will be a significant threat to United’s backline. City have hit the required mark for this bet to land with relative ease in the last three league meetings at the Etihad.

Selection: Over 18.5 Man City Shots (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.00 (bet365)
Stakes: 7/10

Odds via bet365 & Unibet as at 13:00 September 29th 2022. Odds may now differ.

More Man City vs Man Utd Tips

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