Football 
Horse Racing Why Barça’s goals milestone does not make them a safe bet
According to our in-house tool, BETSiE, Barcelona are the only team in Europe’s top five leagues projected to come close to the 100 goals landmark this season. They currently sit atop the Spanish league with a four-point advantage over Real Madrid and just seven matches remaining.
As the leading bookmakers’ favourites to win the Champions League, goal-machine Barça are likely to capture the interest of punters in the goals market as the season reaches its climax.
But how should you approach betting on the Blaugrana? Our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has crunched the numbers to provide some key insights.
| La Liga – Matchday 32 | Bet 365 Odds |
| Barcelona vs Celta Vigo: Barcelona To Score Over 2.5 Goals | 1.87 |
Europe’s best attack will keep delivering
In Europe’s top five leagues, no team has found the back of the net as often as Barcelona this season. With 84 goals scored in 31 matches, they’re ahead of Bayern Munich (83) and Paris Saint-Germain (80). However, the Catalans have a lower goals-per-game ratio (2.70), having played two more games than Bayern and three more than PSG. Notably, their expected goals (xG) differential stands at +10.4, indicating they’ve outperformed their expected tally so far—higher than PSG’s +5.4.
According to BETSiE, PSG’s total goal tally for the season is projected to fall short of the 100 mark, with an estimated 97.8 goals by the end of the campaign. In their remaining seven La Liga fixtures, Barça are projected to score an average of 2.18 goals per game.
It’s worth noting that Barça faces a challenging schedule ahead, including the iconic El Clasico. However, the first half of the season clearly showed that they can score against even the toughest opponents.
Their upcoming fixtures and the number of goals scored in the reverse fixtures are as follows:
- Celta (H) – 2
- Mallorca (H) – 5
- Valladolid (A) – 7
- Real Madrid (H) – 4
- Espanyol (A) – 3
- Villarreal (H) – 5
- Athletic Bilbao (A) – 2
Total: 28 goals. Average: four goals per game in the reverse fixtures—a tally that would see them comfortably exceed the 100-goal mark in the league.
| BETSIE PROJECTED La Liga table | W | D | L | GF | GA | Points | Chances to win the league |
| Barcelona | 26.5 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 99.3 | 35.9 | 84.7 | 84.4% |
| Real Madrid | 24.3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 77.6 | 37.5 | 80.2 | 14.9% |
| Atletico Madrid | 21.7 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 62.9 | 30.6 | 75.8 | 0.7% |
100 goals don’t always make you champions
Barcelona have surpassed the 100-goal mark in La Liga eight times, winning the Spanish title on seven of those occasions. In the 2013/2014 season, despite netting exactly 100 goals, they finished second to Atletico Madrid.
A similar scenario occurred in the 2009/10 season when Real Madrid scored 102 league goals but failed to secure the title. After 31 matches, Los Blancos had 83 goals—one fewer than Barcelona’s current tally.
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