BETSiE La Liga Projections

We’ve decided to release BETSiE and her La Liga  projections and table prediction to the wild here at bettingexpert in a bid to help our readers navigate La Liga as Spain’s top flight progresses through the 2024/25 season.

What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.

The Latest BETSiE La Liga Projections

This weekend’s La Liga fixtures are packed with thrilling contests and opportunities for teams to improve their standings. Atlético Madrid is fancied to win against Alavés, holding a 47.9% chance of success on the road. Espanyol faces a challenging game against Betis, with the visitors slightly backed at 42.1%.

Girona’s match against Mallorca sees the host team with a 44.4% probability of victory, while Las Palmas takes on Valencia with the latter having a 40.1% chance of winning.

Rayo Vallecano is favoured against Getafe, boasting a 47.9% likelihood of a home win. Real Madrid is expected to dominate Celta, with a commanding 70.0% chance of victory.

In a closely matched fixture, Sociedad faces Athletic Bilbao, with visitors slightly coming out on top. Sevilla is expected to secure a win over Leganes, holding a 54.2% chance.

Barcelona is big favourites to win against Valladolid, boasting an 80.4% chance of success. Villarreal is also poised for a home victory against Osasuna, with a 62.9% likelihood. These fixtures promise excitement and potential shifts in the league standings.

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La Liga Projected Matchday 34 Goal Totals: May 2nd-5th

HOME	AWAY	HGF	AGF	GD	GT
Alaves	Atl. Madrid	0.96	1.43	-0.47	2.38
Espanyol	Betis	0.96	1.22	-0.26	2.18
Girona	Mallorca	1.28	0.94	0.34	2.22
Las Palmas	Valencia	1.20	1.34	-0.14	2.54
Vallecano	Getafe	1.33	0.85	0.48	2.18
Real Madrid	Celta	2.22	0.79	1.43	3
Sociedad	Ath Bilbao	0.87	0.96	-0.09	1.83
Sevilla	Leganes	1.54	0.83	0.71	2.38
Valladolid	Barcelona	0.78	2.90	-2.11	3.68
Villarreal	Osasuna	2.18	1.06	1.12	3.24

La Liga table prediction abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.

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La Liga Matchday 34 Projections: May 2nd-5th

HOME	AWAY	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Alaves	Atl. Madrid	25.3%	26.7%	47.9%
Espanyol	Betis	29.0%	28.9%	42.1%
Girona	Mallorca	44.4%	28.3%	27.2%
Las Palmas	Valencia	33.3%	26.6%	40.1%
Vallecano	Getafe	47.9%	28.1%	24.0%
Real Madrid	Celta	70.0%	18.1%	11.9%
Sociedad	Ath Bilbao	31.3%	32.4%	36.3%
Sevilla	Leganes	54.2%	25.6%	20.2%
Valladolid	Barcelona	7.2%	12.4%	80.4%
Villarreal	Osasuna	62.9%	19.7%	17.4%

La Liga table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.

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BETSiE’s Projected La Liga Table Prediction

#	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	pts
1	Barcelona	38	27.2	4.9	5.9	100.4	37.2	63.3	86.6
2	Real Madrid	38	24.9	7.0	6.1	75.5	36.1	39.4	81.7
3	Atl. Madrid	38	21.7	10.2	6.1	64.1	31.6	32.4	75.3
4	Ath Bilbao	38	18.1	13.4	6.5	56.0	30.9	25.1	67.6
5	Villarreal	38	17.4	11.0	9.6	64.8	52.0	12.8	63.3
6	Betis	38	17.0	10.3	10.7	56.6	47.1	9.5	61.2
7	Celta	38	14.7	8.3	14.9	55.5	55.1	0.4	52.6
8	Mallorca	38	13.7	9.2	15.1	36.5	44.7	-8.2	50.3
9	Osasuna	38	11.4	15.2	11.4	45.6	53.9	-8.3	49.5
10	Sociedad	38	13.5	7.4	17.1	36.6	43.1	-6.5	47.8
11	Vallecano	38	11.8	12.4	13.8	40.9	48.0	-7.0	47.8
12	Valencia	38	10.9	13.4	13.7	43.0	54.6	-11.6	46.1
13	Espanyol	38	11.3	10.3	16.4	39.7	49.1	-9.4	44.2
14	Getafe	38	11.2	10.4	16.4	35.2	36.5	-1.3	44.1
15	Sevilla	38	10.8	11.3	15.9	40.9	50.2	-9.4	43.6
16	Girona	38	10.6	9.4	18.0	45.5	58.2	-12.7	41.3
17	Alaves	38	9.7	11.4	17.0	40.4	52.0	-11.6	40.4
18	Las Palmas	38	9.7	9.3	18.9	44.1	59.5	-15.4	38.6
19	Leganes	38	7.6	13.2	17.2	35.9	56.4	-20.5	36.0
20	Valladolid	38	5.1	5.2	27.8	28.6	89.9	-61.2	20.3

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La Liga League Finish Probabilities

Club	Win League	Top 2	Top 4	Top 6	Top Half	Bottom Half	Relegation
Barcelona	89.2%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Real Madrid	10.8%	95.2%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Atl. Madrid	0.0%	4.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Ath Bilbao	0.0%	0.0%	87.2%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Villarreal	0.0%	0.0%	10.0%	99.7%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Betis	0.0%	0.0%	2.9%	98.3%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Celta	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.7%	95.7%	4.3%	0.0%
Mallorca	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	78.0%	22.0%	0.0%
Osasuna	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	69.8%	30.2%	0.0%
Sociedad	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	49.7%	50.3%	0.0%
Vallecano	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	49.8%	50.2%	0.1%
Valencia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	23.9%	76.1%	1.2%
Espanyol	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	10.9%	89.1%	2.7%
Getafe	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	12.1%	87.9%	1.0%
Sevilla	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	92.7%	5.1%
Girona	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	98.1%	18.3%
Alaves	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	99.2%	26.0%
Las Palmas	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	99.8%	57.3%
Leganes	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	88.4%
Valladolid	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%

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What is BETSiE and Her La Liga Projections?

BETSiE projects the entire La Liga season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

• Goals For / Against
• Shots For / Against
• Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the La Liga fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the La Liga season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.

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