A Winning Bet in 77% of Potter’s League Matches at West Ham

Goals have been scarce in West Ham’s matches since Graham Potter took the reins in January. The Hammers’ matches have seen the fewest goals in the Premier League over that period.

Scott Thornton looks at how punters should approach Potter’s side’s matches ahead of this week’s clashes with Wolves and Bournemouth. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Potter Struggles to Find That Magical Balance 

Everton matches have seen the fewest goals over the course of the whole season with an average of 2.34. However, the Toffees’ matches have been more goal-friendly since David Moyes took charge, with their league matches under the Scotsman seeing an average of 2.80 goals. West Ham are now the go-to team for unders backers. Since Potter took charge, their matches have seen an average of 2.11 goals per game.

Shoring up the defence was a priority for Graham Potter. Julen Lopetegui struggled to tighten things up at the back. The Basque coach wanted his West Ham team to control possession in a bid to remain defensively solid, but his team averaged just 46%. They were also extremely vulnerable immediately after losing possession, meaning they conceded an average of 1.95 goals per league game under Lopetegui. 

Graham Potter has come in and found the remedy for West Ham’s defensive plight. The Englishman has settled on a formation that includes three centre-backs in his last eight league games in charge of the Hammers. Max Kilman, a key player in the heart of the defence, is certainly confident that the new structure gives the team a solid base. As a result, West Ham have conceded an average of 1.11 goals per league game under Potter. This drops to just one goal per game if we exclude his first game in charge against Fulham in which they used a back four. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have conceded fewer than one goal per game over the course of the season.

Becoming solid defensively has come at a cost. West Ham have Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus in attack but neither has proved effective in this new system. Since Potter took charge of the team in January, they have scored an average of one goal per league game. Only Leicester (0.22 per game) and Ipswich (0.89 per game), two sides who are destined to return to the Championship, have netted fewer. 

West Ham’s struggles in attack and improved defence means it’s time to back against goals when they take to the field. 

Head-to-Heads Show Promise

West Ham face Wolves in their next Premier League match. BETSiE, our in-house projection model, is having a hard time splitting these two teams and predicts it will be the third lowest-scoring game on matchday 30. 

Under 2.5 goals has landed in seven of West Ham’s last eight league outings. Those games have seen an average xG of 2.09, indicating that the lack of goals is no fluke. The Hammers’ 2-1 defeat against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge is the only one of those matches that has exceeded 2.5 expected goals.

Goals have also been hard to come by in Wolves’ home matches of late. Vitor Pereira took over from Gary O’Neil in December. He has managed six Premier League matches at Molineux and those have seen an average of 2.17 goals. Our bet has won in four of those six matches. Under 2.5 goals has also won in two of the last three competitive meetings between these sides at this ground. 

Just four days later, West Ham host Bournemouth as the hectic fixture schedule continues. Tired legs could contribute to another low-scoring game. The Cherries’ matches have seen the seventh-fewest goals in the league with an average of 2.9 but their recent head-to-heads with the Hammers show more promise for those betting on under 2.5 goals. The bet has won in five of the last six meetings between the sides with those matches averaging 2.17 goals. 

Graham Potter continues to struggle to find the balance between attack and defence. Their woes in front of goal look set to continue until the boss can bolster his squad in the summer transfer window. Until then, West Ham fans will have to get used to a lack of goals. 

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