football | Friday, June 25, 2021 11:00 AM (Revised at: Monday, January 24, 2022 12:44 PM)

Euro 2021 Croatia vs Spain Bet Builder Tips

Daniel Jenkins

Croatia take on Spain at the Parken Stadium in Copenhagen for a place in the quarter finals. It’s a big test for both nations after a stop-start group stage.

CROATIA VS SPAIN ODDS TO PROGRESS	ODDS	PROBABILITY
CROATIA odds to progress	3.75	26.7%
SPAIN odds to progress	1.25	80.0%

Odds at bet365 at 13:00 on 25th June 2021. Odds may now differ

Croatia left it late in the groups. It was a case of waiting until things clicked for manager Zlatko Dalic. His side struggled in their opening match with England. Croatia improved on that 1-0 loss with a 1-1 draw against Czech Republic. They sealed second place with a 3-1 victory over Scotland.

Spain’s group followed a familiar pattern. They had a disappointing start with a goalless draw with Sweden. Things improved in matchday 2 when Poland held La Roja to a 1-1 draw. Spain finally came good in their final match of the group stage. The 5-0 victory over Slovakia sealed their place in the knockouts but not top spot. That sets this match up.

Croatia versus Spain is becoming a European Championship staple. The two sides met in the group stage of both Euro 2016 and Euro 2012. Spain won in 2012 on their way to the title but Croatia were victorious four years later.

This looks to be a match based on ball possession. Spain have the highest average possession in the competition so far. They kept it 69.3% of the time in the groups. That’s almost 9% more than any other side. Croatia moved the ball well too, keeping it for 55.2% of their group matches. Both sides were in the top 10 nations for pass completion percentage.

Spain were superior to their opponents at creating chances. La Roja created an average of 16.0 shots per game, the third-highest figure in the competition. 10.0 of those chances were in the penalty area, far higher than the 4.3 penalty box chances Croatia created on average per match.

La Roja had an xGF of 9.57 and an xGA of 2.59. That’s an xGD of +5.98 compared to Croatia’s figure of -2.18.

This explains why Croatia are the big outsiders to win this one. Luka Modric and co are 3.75 to qualify and win their first=ever knockout tie in this competition. It’s 1.25 for Spain to qualify for the last eight.

Croatia vs Spain Betting Stats & Facts

Spain beat Croatia 6-0 in the UEFA Nations League back in September 2018. It remains their heaviest ever defeat in an international match
Spain haven’t won a knockout match at a major tournament since they lifted the title at Euro 2012
Croatia have made it to the knockout stage of the European Championships for the fourth time. They lost their first knockout match on each of the other three occasions
Luka Modric became the oldest player to score for Croatia at the Euros when he found the net against Scotland in matchday 3. The midfielder also holds the title as the youngest Croatian goalscorer in this competition after scoring at Euro 2012
All six of Spain’s goals in the group stages were scored by different players

Croatia vs Spain Bet Builder Tips

Spain to Win to Nil
Most Goals to be Scored in 2nd Half
Dejan Lovren to be Booked

Croatia vs Spain Bet Builder is available on bet365 at odds of 21.00.

Odds from bet365 at 13:00 on 25 June 2021. Odds may now differ

Expect Spain to win this match fairly comfortably. The xG for both teams should catch up with them which would allow La Roja to seal a place in the last eight. Backing the most goals to be scored in the second half seems like a good bet too.

Dejan Lovren is likely to receive a booking. The Croatian centre back has already been booked twice in this competition. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him booked again with Spain’s agile attackers.

Get more tips for this match on our Croatia vs Spain tips page