Scott Thornton’s Top Five Ante-Post Outright Bets

Scott Thornton brings you his top five ante-post outright bets as we gear up for another busy season of action across Europe. We have picks from the Premier League, Championship, Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga. 

In Germany, Bayer Leverkusen are hoping to make it back-to-back wins in the Bundesliga but bet365 are offering a bet with an insurance policy. Erol Bulut is hoping to build on a successful first season as Cardiff boss in our second bet. Can Tottenham retain bragging rights over Chelsea? That’s the burning question we are ask in the Premier League. Our remaining tips aim to find value from the best of the rest in both Spain and Germany.

In this article:

• Bayer Leverkusen To Win the Bundesliga Without Bayern
• Cardiff To Finish Top Half
• Tottenham To Finish Above Chelsea
• Juventus To Win Serie A Without Inter Milan
• Atletico Madrid To Win La Liga Without Real Madrid and Barcelona

2024/25 Season Preview on The Football Betting Pod: Abundant Ante-Post Angles

We’re back, as host Daniel Jenkins is joined by bettingexpert Football Editor, Sam Ingram, and bettingexpert contributor, Jack Wright, who serve up fifteen selections between them.

The pair take a forensic look at the ante-post outright betting markets with the aim of serving up a number of value selections ahead of the return of domestic football in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two.

Bayer Leverkusen to Win the Bundesliga Without Bayern Munich: Alonso Had the Midas’ Touch

Germany, Bundeslliga.

Bayer Leverkusen’s loss in the Europa League final against Atalanta prevented them from going unbeaten across all competitions for the entire year. They still managed to win the DFB Pokal and won their first-ever Bundesliga crown at a canter, so it’s surprising to see them so generously priced for the league for this upcoming season. 

Xabi Alonso’s future was the source of much speculation last season with several clubs rumoured to be interested in his signature. This Bayer Leverkusen side played swashbuckling football and showed the tenacity to fight back when their unbeaten run looked in jeopardy. They won 28 and drew 6 of their matches in the Bundesliga.

No fluke in Leverkusen

The underlying data shows the 40-point increase on the previous season was no fluke. Leverkusen’s xG of 82.01 was the second-highest in the German top flight. That translated to them conceding the fewest goals in the league with an average of just .071. By comparison, Bayern Munich conceded an average of 1.32 goals per game. Stuttgart and RB Leipzig boasted the joint second-best defensive record, conceding an average of 1.15 goals per game. 

Leverkusen also look set to avoid their squad being gutted in the summer transfer window. There is an expectation that Jonathan Tah will join Bayern before the window closes but Florian Wirtz and several other key players are going nowhere. Wirtz ranked in the top 2% for shot-creating actions and assists per 90 minutes played last season. He scored 11 and assisted 11 in the Bundesliga.

Alonso has also been given some new talent to work with. Qualification to the Champions League has loosened the pursestrings so Leverkusen have brought in Aleix Garcia, Martin Terrier, Jeanuel Belociaan, Iker Bravo and Matija Marsenic to bolster their squad. The talented squad and manager combination should mean that a drop-off is unlikely so we are backing them to win the Bundesliga excluding Bayern here. Those who like something at a little longer odds should be tempted to retain the title. 

• Ante-Post Selection 1: Bayer Leverkusen To Win the Bundesliga Without Bayern
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Cardiff to Finish Top Half: Bluebirds Flying High

England, Championship.

The Championship is a famously difficult league to predict and this year is no different. Cardiff are the third favourites to go down with bet365 but they are also priced at just 7.00 to break into the top six. The playoffs are a lofty ambition for Erol Bulut but we are backing them to finish in the top half this campaign. 

Cardiff have enjoyed two seasons in the Premier League in the last 10 but they are some way off returning to the top tier of English football. The Bluebirds looked as though they could be involved in a relegation scrap at one stage last season but Bulut was able to steer them to 12th in the table.

The Bluebirds scored an average of 1.15 goals per game in the Championship last season but they have brought in some exciting talent to add to their attacking threat. Anwar El Ghazi is the latest player they have brought in. The former Aston Villa winger was available on a free transfer after his contract was terminated by Mainz but he could have a profound impact in the second tier. Wilfried Kanga, Chris Willock and Calum Chambers have also been signed. 

Prior to Bulut’s arrival, Cardiff had been trending towards the bottom three in the previous two seasons. The Turkish manager has galvanised the squad and adopted an aggressive playing style that suits the Bluebirds. Cardiff could make a push for the playoffs if the new singings make an impact. Another crucial factor will be Aaron Ramsey staying fit.

• Ante-Post Selection 1: Cardiff To Finish Top Half
• Best Odds: 2.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Tottenham To Finish Above Chelsea: Blues’ Woes to Continue?

England, Premier League.

Chelsea have endured a disastrous period since Roman Abramovich departed the club. The new ownership consortium, spearheaded by Todd Boehly, have been busy in the transfer market and spent lavish sums on some of the most highly-rated young players in world football but that hasn’t yielded results on the pitch. Therefore, we are banking on them finishing below Tottenham once again, much to the dismay of the Blues faithful.

Mauricio Pochettino appeared to be turning things around last season but the Chelsea board opted to part ways with the manager in the summer. The Blues wound up finishing 6th last season, just three points behind Tottenham despite spending much of the season in the bottom half of the table. 

Maresca through the door

Enzo Maresca was the man appointed to replace Poch. He guided Leicester back to the Premier League last season but it did look as though they could bottle a massive lead at one stage. Chelsea’s 4-1 defeat at the hands of Celtic in pre-season set some alarm bells ringing so questions remain the suitability of the new man.

Ange Postecoglou has been a hugely popular figure since taking the Tottenham hot seat. His team were sitting pretty at the top of the league a couple of months into last season. They eventually missed out on Champions League football but Tottenham’s future under the Australian looks promising. 

Spurs have taken a more measured approach to squad building than Chelsea but they have still been busy in the transfer market. Archie Gray looks a good purchase and he, along with Lucas Bergvall, will add some much-needed depth to the midfield. 

• Ante-Post Selection 1: Tottenham To Finish Above Chelsea
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stake: 5/10

Juventus to Win Serie A Without Inter Milan: Motta to Make an Impact

Italy, Serie A.

Juventus finished 3rd in Serie A last season after a disappointing run of form since the turn of the year. They had looked on course to finish as runners-up behind Inter Milan but the season was still considered a success with the Old Lady securing a return to the Champions League. The poor end to the season saw Massimiliano Allegri pay with his job. The veteran coach had more than his fair share of detractors at the club thanks to his defensive approach. Juve will be hoping to kick on this season with Thiago Motta, one of the most talented young managers in Europe, at the helm. 

Motta steered Bologna to 5th place and Champions League qualification last season. However, the allure of Juventus was too great to resist. There is an expectation that his Juve side will be more dominant in possession and play more free-flowing football than they did under his predecessor. Bologna averaged 58.34% possession in Seria A last season, only Inter had more. Juventus, on the other hand, had an average possession of less than 50%.

Juventus have overhauled their midfield with the acquisition of Douglas Luiz and Kephren Thuram. Michele Di Gregorio and Juan Cabal have also been brought in but the club is poised to do more business. 

The Old Lady names a severely weakened side in their first friendly against Nurnberg so we haven’t had the chance to see what they can do under the new boss just yet. Nevertheless, Bologna’s performances last season are reason to be optimistic and Motta should be able to get a tune out of this talented group.

• Ante-Post Selection 1: Juventus To Win Serie A Without Inter Milan
• Best Odds: 3.00 
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Atletico Madrid to Win La Liga Without Real Madrid and Barcelona: Simeone Expecting improvement

Spain, La Liga.

Atletico Madrid have established themselves as the third-biggest team in Spain under Diego Simeone. They have captured two La Liga titles over the past decade but had to settle for a 4th place finish behind Girona last season. Simeone will be hoping his side can be more competitive in the title race this time around. 

Under Simeone, Atleti are known for their solid defence and last season was no different. Their xGA of 43.46 was the third lowest in Spain’s top flight and not considerably worse than Real Madrid’s xGA of 39.29. In fact, Atletico Madrid were the only side to beat Carlo Ancelotti’s side in La Liga last season.

Robin Le Normand has been brought in to add further steel to an already solid Atletico Madrid defence. Alvaro Morata has departed but Simeone preferred the likes of Correa and Depay in attack towards the end of last season. 

Girona finished 3rd and five points ahead of Atletico Madrid last season but the club owned by City Football Group have lost several key players this summer. Savinho returned to Troyes before being sold to Manchester City. Aleix Garcia has also left the club. The transfer fee for the latter has been reinvested in the playing squad but it’s difficult to see them reaching the standards they set in the last campaign.

• Ante-Post Selection 1: Atletico Madrid To Win La Liga Without Real Madrid and Barcelona
• Best Odds: 2.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Scott Thornton’s Top Five Ante-Post Outright Bets Odds via bet365 as at 11:10, 2nd August 2024 – odds for best bets may now differ.

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