The Cards Column Tips: MD20 Player Cards, Team Bookings and Referee Data

The Cards Column went three out of three for a full house before Christmas. Matt Kirby is back to preview the latest round of fixtures, bringing you the latest referee data, appointments, and a trio of card-related tips in the Premier League and the Championship.

• Wolves vs Everton: Over 3 Cards and Each Team Second-Half Card
• Birmingham vs Bristol City: George Tanner To Be Booked
• Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd: Both Teams to Receive 2+ Cards

Odds via bet365 as of 16:30, 27th December, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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The Data from the Premier League and the Championship: Team Bookings and Referee Data

Rob Jones has a Premier League middle after his controversial second yellow to Willy Boly in Nottingham Forest’s defeat to Bournemouth. There’s another chance in the top flight for Sam Barrott, who looks set for promotion to Select Group 1.

In the Championship, Scott Oldham is the standout name. He’s in charge of Stoke’s visit to Watford, in what will be the official’s third taste of the second tier after two trial games in 2022/23. Meanwhile, after her Premier League debut, Rebecca Welch oversees Preston v Sheffield Wednesday.

One of the big games in the Championship sees West Brom welcome Leeds to The Hawthorns. The reverse fixture in August saw nine yellow cards. Select Group 1 ref Graham Scott is in charge. He’s shown three reds in eight games this season and averages 5.9 cards per 90.

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The Data from League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data

Dale Baines gets his second game in League Two when he referees managerless Salford against Grimsby. Select Group 2 ref Bobby Madley is also in League Two.

Elsewhere, it’s Swindon face Forest Green. When the sides met in August, the game produced 105 booking points. Scott Simpson oversees that one, averaging six cards per 90 this season.

Card-happy refs Ollie Yates, Ben Toner, and Stephen Martin have games to look out for.

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Wolves vs Everton: Return to Molineux for cards

England, Premier League, Saturday, December 30th, 15:00 (UK)

After the Christmas Eve treat that saw Wolves beat Chelsea in a game with eight cards, it’d be rude not to return to Molineux.

Gary O’Neil’s side average 2.7 per home game and were 4-1 winners at Brentford on Wednesday. While Everton average 2.2 per away match. The Toffees picked up four cards in their defeat against champions Man City in the week.

While those home/away averages total 4.9 cards, we’ve also got the top-two teams for fouls committed. Old Gold tops that chart at 13.1 per 90, with Everton not far behind (12.6).

Thomas Brammall is the referee. He averages 23.2 fouls per game and has shown 4+ cards in 64% of his games. But his last five games have caught the eye with card totals of 5, 1, 5, 8 & 6.
The last three of those have seen 2+ cards to each team – that’s 1.83 here, while Bramall has shown 3+ cards to both sides in his last two.

However, I’m trusting the old favourite of over 3 cards and each team to receive a card in the second half. That’s 1.80 using the Bet365 bet builder, which seems to add up nicely using the card and foul data.

These sides met in matchweek three with seven cards in the game. That was a 4-3 split to Wolves, with both sides seeing two or more after half-time. There were six cards in last season’s meeting at Molineux, with a card each in the second half.

Everything seems to point to cards, with some higher lines potentially worth a play. A quick look on 365 shows over two cards to each team is 5.00, which would hold some appeal.

• Selection: Over 3 Cards & a Card to Each Team in the Second Half
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

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George Tanner To Be Booked: Dembele to trouble Tanner

England, Championship, Friday, December 30th, 19:45 (UK)

My player pick comes from the Championship on Friday night when Bristol City are the visitors to a beleaguered Birmingham.

The Blues slipped to a 3-1 defeat here at St. Andrew’s against Stoke on Boxing Day, which has seen them plummet to the bottom six of the Championship. Meanwhile, Bristol City caught the eye with their away win at Watford.

One man keeps catching the eye for Rooney’s side, and that’s Siriki Dembele. The tricky winger draws an average of 1.7 fouls per game and attempts 2.6 dribbles per 90. Those who line up against him generally find themselves busy.

Look through recent Birmingham games and you’ll see a few right-backs having their names taken when opposing Dembele.

In their last six, Rotherham’s Lee Peltier, Plymouth’s Joe Edwards, and Stoke’s Junior Tchamadeu have all been cautioned. That’s 50% of players in that position, albeit across a small sample.

That could mean that George Tanner is the man dealing with Dembele, which means he’s the one I’ll take for a booking. The Robins right-back has four cards to his name this season, with his most recent card coming against Hull on the Friday before Christmas.

Tanner isn’t the most prolific fouler, but given his direct opponent, the 5.00 for a card does hold some weight. He puts himself about looking through his numbers, with tackle counts of 10, 0, 3, 3, 4, 2 & 5 across his last seven starts.

Referee Geoff Eltringham has shown four or more cards in 10 of his 14 middles this season, which aids the argument for cards. One was Bristol City’s goalless draw at QPR that saw four cards – two to each team.

With Rooney after a response from his players, Dembele is the one most likely to get them on the front foot. All that leads me to Tanner bringing him down and picking up his fifth caution at a decent price.

• Selection: George Tanner to be Booked
• Best Odds: 5.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

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Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd: Tempers to run high at the City Ground

England, Premier League, Saturday, December 30th, 17:30 (UK)

Let’s turn the clock back to August when these two sides met at Old Trafford. Nottingham Forest took an early two-goal lead before Man Utd hit back to win 3-2.

That game saw referee Stuart Attwell kept very busy. He dished out four yellows to each side, as well as giving Joe Worrall his marching orders in the 67th minute. Ten cards in total – a 6-4 split to Forest.

And since Forest returned to the top flight, the card counts in these head-to-heads have been 3-1 to United, 2-2, and that 6-4 to Forest clash earlier this season.

Despite the change in head coach at Forest, the cards have still flowed. Nuno Espirito Santo has replaced Steve Cooper, but Nuno’s first two games have seen three cards to each team – that follows the Bet365 card rules to which I build the data charts.

With that in mind, both teams to receive 2+ cards at 2.10 on Bet365 is an angle that could be the way to play this one. And this fits with the fact that Forest and Man Utd both average 2.4 cards per 90 this season.

Tim Robinson has the whistle for this one. He’s not been the most frequent card issuer this season, with nine of his 16 games seeing 4+ cards. While he’s shown two-plus cards to each side in just five overall.

Robinson’s sole Forest game was their 1-0 win at Chelsea. That saw seven cards – a 4-3 split to the Tricky Trees. Again, that gives the belief that we could see the same here.

These sides have identical records when it comes to picking up 2+ cards in home/away games and overall across the season:

• Forest 2+ cards in seven of nine at home
• United 2+ cards in seven of nine away games
• Both Forest and United have seen 2+ cards in 14 of their 19 PL matches

I would have preferred a more card-happy referee, but Robinson has shown at times he can show them. With all the numbers above, some of you might want to go for higher lines:

• Over 2 cards to each team is 11/2 with Bet365 – landed in both of Nuno’s games in charge of Forest
• Over 3 cards to each team is 25/1 with the same bookie – a repeat of the Old Trafford thriller

If we get something like they served up in August, you hope the referee has enough ink in his pen to take all the player names.

• Selection: Both Teams to Receive 2+ Cards
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

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SAFER GAMBLING

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