football | Wednesday, August 23, 2023 12:30 PM (Revised at: Wednesday, August 23, 2023 12:37 PM)

The Expert’s Acca: From South America to Sweden, via Hartlepool

Sam Ingram

The Expert’s Acca: Expert Tips and Predictions From bettingexpert This Weekend

We’re back, and this time we head to the fifth-tier in England, a hammer blow in Allsvenskan, Ligue 1, Serie A, and a few more in search for expert tips and predictions for the weekend ahead.

Elsewhere, Matt Kirby makes his debut Expert Tips appearance, Scott Thornton has a prop selection for us (shock), Tom Winch sticks with a familiar Montpellier play in France, Nathan Joyes finds solace in Argentina, and Jack Wright serves up a non-biased Norwich City selection.

In This Article:

Sam Ingram’s Best Expert Tip and Prediction For This Weekend
Jack Wright’s Best Free Tip and Prediction For This Weekend
Matthew O’Regan’s Best Free Tip and Prediction For This Weekend
Nathan Joyes’ Best Free Tip and Prediction For This Weekend
Scott Thornton’s Best Free Tip and Prediction For This Weekend
Tom Winch’s Best Free Tip and Prediction For This Weekend
Daniele Fisichella’s Best Free Tip and Prediction For This Weekend
Steve Wyss’ Best Free Tip and Prediction For This Weekend
Matt Kirby’s Best Free Tip and Prediction For This Weekend

OGC Nice vs Lyon: Home-schooled and outfought, again?

France, Ligue 1, Sunday, 27th August, 19:45 (UK)

Lyon were taught a lesson in front of home fans on the weekend – home-schooled, if you like – when Montpellier made the short two-hour train ride north.

The hosts crumbled. And this followed a loss to Strasbourg on match day one and questionable preseason preparations, losing 4/5 fixtures and sneaking in an 89th-minute penalty winner against 18/1 home opposition De Treffers (I’ve got no idea, either).

To compound Lyon’s misery further, Alexandre Lacazette wasn’t awarded a free-kick in the 80th minute, and neither was Rayan Cherki straight after, leading to the former Arsenal man picking himself off the ground and taking a swipe at an opposing player. Straight red. OGC Nice will plan for Lyon’s trip without their goal scoring captain up top—big blow.

Lyon will need to muster something a little more pleasing to the eye than their 0.36xG against Montpellier when travelling to the South of France this weekend. Equally, the 2.92xGA can’t continue to rear its head either.

I fear for Lyon. Laurent Blanc’s stuttering outfit may be in for a testing afternoon if they start as they did in the first half against Montpellier (0-2 down, 2-9 on shots, and 0-4 match shots on target).

OGC Nice will be intent on putting last weekend’s frustrations to bed. They had the better chances away to Lorient but couldn’t make them count. That’s two points in two for Les Aiglons, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them notch their first win of the season on Sunday. A draw feels like an excellent result for Lyon here – accomplish that, and we’ll only lose half our stakes.

Expert: Sam Ingram
Selection: OGC Nice -0.25 Asian Handicap
Best Odds: 1.87
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

Huddersfield vs Norwich City: Take Jonny Rowe to have a go

England, Championship, Saturday 26th August, 15:00 (UK)

Despite an unbeaten pre-season and some shrewd pick-ups in the (free) transfer market, most judges had Norwich down for a season of turgid struggle. Mid-table at best, with nothing but an outside chance of breaking into the play-offs.

Head Coach David Wagner needed a strong start with his new additions, such as Ashley Barnes, Shane Duffy and Jack Stacey, needing to hit the ground running. Requiring last season’s Player of the Year, Gabriel Sara, to pick up from where he left off. An academy-raised starlet bursting onto the scene would be the icing on the cake.

To do this, the ex-Huddersfield boss warned his squad they would “suffer” during a first pre-season under him. That included triple daily training sessions at 8am, 11am, and 4pm to reach the physical levels required.

It has certainly paid dividends in the early throes of the campaign. Barnes has a goal and assists to his name; Duffy appears to be implementing his directive to improve a weak mentality within the group, with Stacey impressing down the right wing. He is credited with one assist but has played leading roles in at least two other goals.

As for that final layer on the cake, well, that has been, without question, provided by Jonny Rowe. He boasts a goal in each of his three Championship appearances this season, as well as the winning strike deep in injury time at QPR in the Carabao Cup.

The 20-year-old is the first Norwich City player to score in the first four games of a season for 96 years. Furthermore, his opening three league goals came via left foot (vs Hull), head (vs Southampton) and right foot (vs Millwall).

Equally, four different players from four different parts of the team have assisted the goals. Dimitri Giannoulis from left back, central midfielder Sara via a corner, right back Kellen Fisher, and centre-forward Barnes. It’s evident that the Academy product is showing great movement and linking up well in a variety of situations.

Rowe has hit 11 shots across his four appearances this season in all competitions, with a shot on target in each. Opponents Huddersfield are yet to win this season and have conceded the fifth-highest number of shots with 48 in three games, 17 of which came in their only home fixture so far against Leicester. Town have conceded five goals, but their xGA of 5.7 is the third worst in the Championship.

Looking at the performance of left-sided forwards against Neil Warnock’s side this season only emphasises that the odds for a Jon Rowe shot on target with bet365 are far too big. Across the four games played so far this term, the opponent in that position has fired 12 shots with five on target – at least one in each of the fixtures, with Bali Mumba, Samuel Silvera and Stephy Mavididi all scoring from there.

An in-form and confident Rowe can certainly terrorise the Terriers.

Expert: Jack Wright
Selection: Jon Rowe Over 0.5 Shots On Target
Best Odds: 1.83
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

Hartlepool vs AFC Fylde : Goals up North

England, National League, Saturday 26th August, 17:30 (UK)

Victoria Park and the National League hosts a potentially mouth-watering clash in Hartlepool vs AFC Fylde.

After his controversial sacking from York, Hartlepool swooped to appoint John Askey as their manager. He was unable to steer the Monkey Hangers to safety. The hierarchy decided to maintain faith in the 58-year-old, and this faith looks well-placed thus far.

Despite a 3-2 opening-day defeat to Barnet, Hartlepool sit in fourth place, winning the next three games. 2-1 and 3-1 home victories against Gateshead and Maidenhead were followed up by a 3-2 win at Southend.

AFC Fylde topped the National League North with 95 points last season and have started this season in an entertaining fashion, scoring eight goals and conceding ten in their first four games.

The Coasters fought back to draw 2-2 at Maidenhead in the season opener before losing 4-2 to title favourites Chesterfield. Late drama ensued at home to Kidderminster, where all three goals in a 2-1 victory for AFC Fylde came after the 79th minute.

More late drama came in the 3-2 loss to Wealdstone, with 86th and 99th-minute goals for Wealdstone condemning AFC Fylde to a defeat.

Over 2.5 goals have landed in 100% of games for both teams, with over 3.5 landing in 75%.

Expert: Matthew O’Regan
Selection: Over 2.75 Goals
Best Odds: 1.92
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

San Lorenzo vs Belgrano: San Lorenzo on the nose

Argentina, Copa De La Liga Profesional, Saturday 26th August, 18:30

San Lorenzo responded with their disappointing exit in the Copa Sudamericana with a steady 1-0 victory away to Lanus.

Back in front of their own fans, they aren’t used to losing. San Lorenzo has tasted defeat just once in their last 14 matches. Defeating the likes of Sao Paulo, Rosario, Platense and Boca while holding River Plate to a scoreless draw shows how strong they are at Estadio Pedro Bidegain.

Their opponents, however, couldn’t be in worse form on the road. Having not tasted victory since April, Belgrano has lost six of their last seven matches since. In those seven matches, they’ve scored a grand total of zero goals.

San Lorenzo beat Belgrano with ten men away from home in June before beating them rather comfortably 2-0 in front of their own fans in May.

Since Belgrano is unbeaten in their last three matches, and with San Lorenzo nicking victories by small margins, the home side has been underestimated. Belgrano are a shadow of themselves on the road, which is why I’m confident San Lorenzo can get the job done at 1.80.

Expert: Nathan Joyes
Selection: San Lorenzo Win
Best Odds: 1.80
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 8/10 (TRACKED BET)

Chelsea vs Luton: The Blues to lay siege to Luton’s goal

England, Premier League, Friday, 20:00

Chelsea are still searching for their first Premier League win under Mauricio Pochettino. They were beaten 3-1 by West Ham last weekend after a promising display against Liverpool on the opening weekend. They managed 17 shots against David Moyes’ side, and they should rack them up against Luton.

Rob Edwards’ side were scheduled to play Burnley last weekend but were unable to due to delays on their ground renovation. They were hammered by Brighton in their only league match so far. The Seagulls had 27 shots in that one.

These sides met at Stamford Bridge in the FA Cup in 2021. Frank Lampard was boss at the time, and Chelsea had 21 shots and 67% possession. Luton occupies the same division nowadays, but the Blues’ talented side should still have more than their fair share of attempts.

Luton have conceded an average of 21 shots per game across their last five away matches, where they have been priced at 7.50 or greater in the 1X2 market. Chelsea’s last five matches at Stamford Bridge, where they have been priced between 1.20 and 1.30, have seen them average 19.4 shots.

Expert: Scott Thornton
Selection: Over 19.5 Shots For Chelsea
Best Odds:1.83
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 7/10 (TRACKED BET)

Montpellier vs Reims: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it

France, Ligue 1, Sunday 27th August, 14:00 (UK)

Montpellier did the job for us last weekend, so it’ll be rude not to get involved with them once again; they host Will Still’s Reims on Sunday afternoon at Stade de la Mosson.

The home side have started the season strongly; they’ve scored six times in their opening two outings which includes a 4-1 hammering of Lyon. Mousa Al-Tamari bagged a brace, whilst Akor Adams and Arnaud Nordin also found the back of the net.

Reims appeared to give up towards the end of the 22/23 campaign; they won just once in their final nine matches but arrived here fresh off a home win against Clermont which saw goals come from Marshall Munetsi and new signing Mohamed Daramy.

Montpellier have seen four and five goals in their matches so far, they’ve yet to keep a clean sheet, and I don’t see them keeping one in this clash. I’m expecting their league matches to be thoroughly entertaining throughout the campaign, their attack is impressive, and the new additions seem to have settled in quickly.

The goal line appeals in this one. If we see at least three goals, we’ll receive a profit. Der Zakarian’s side are favourites to claim all three points, but I believe backing goals is the way to go in this clash.

Expert: Tom Winch
Selection: Over 2.75 Goals
Best Odds: 1.97
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 8/10 (TRACKED BET)

Napoli vs Sassuolo: Victor Oshimen to continue his run

Italy, Serie A, 27th August 2023, 7.45pm (UK)

It wasn’t a vintage debut from Napoli, as it took a good chunk of the first half for the Champions of Italy to hit their stride. The absence of Kvaratskhelia was noticeable, and in midfield, new signing Jens Cajuste did not look in tune with Stanislav Lobotka.

But after conceding from the spot, the Azzurri started to enjoy more possession in Frosinone’s half, and their win looked inevitable. Job done with goals from Victor Oshimen and good performances from Matteo Politano and Giacomo Raspadori.

Rudi Garcia’s side may need to add a couple of players in midfield if they want to seriously compete in Europe, but, at the moment, their starting XI is the strongest in Italy.

For Sassuolo, everything revolves around Domenico Berardi, their all-time goalscorer (133 goals), who did not feature in the last two games because of disciplinary actions linked to a potential move to Juventus.

Without Berardi, the Neroverdi look very tame, and their recent record is poor: last season, they played 12 games without their captain, losing six (including both games against Napoli, 4-0 at the Maradona and 2-0 at home), winning five (against Torino, Salernitana, Verona, Cremonese and Juventus) and drawing 0-0 against Cremonese.

In their 2-0 defeat against Atalanta, Sassuolo created close to nothing (xG 0.38, the second lowest of the first round), and everything points towards another heavy beating.

Victor Oshimen loves playing against them; he scored four of Napoli’s 12 goals in the last three matches.

Expert: Daniele Fisichella
Selection: Over 2.5 Goals and Victor Oshimen To Score Anytime
Best Odds: 2.41
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 8/10 (TRACKED BET)

Varnamo vs Halmstad: Varnamo to deliver another hammer blow to free falling Halmstad

Sweden, Allsvenskan, Sunday 27th August, 14:00 (UK)

Both teams currently have 25 points, but it’s fairly obvious the two clubs are heading in completely opposite directions. Varnamo are an inconsistent team but has won three of their last six matches and should settle around a comfortable mid-table spot.

The alarm bells are ringing for Halmstad, though. After a decent start to the season and a great unbeaten run of 8 straight games between May and July, they have now lost four consecutive league fixtures with a 2:14 goal differential.

Things started to go wrong when they lost 0-5 at home to rock-bottom Varbergs, a result so bad that goalkeeper Malkolm Nilsson Safqvist took a break from football due to mental health reasons. That sort of situation is always difficult for any squad to handle. Halmstad got promoted into the Allsvenskan this year, and a mid-season slump can be quite familiar with a team like this.

Their underlying metrics are very poor, and they have the worst xGA of any team in the league, along with the second-worst XG. Varnamo should not be an even money shot to beat them at home. They are a well-managed club with far more momentum right now. Halmstad is feeling the heat, and it is extremely difficult to see where their next point, let alone victory, is coming from.

Expert: Steve Wyss
Selection: Varnamo to win
Best Odds: 1.95
Bookmaker: William Hill
Stake: 7/10 (TRACKED BET)

Wigan vs Barnsley: Home goals to flow

England, League One, Saturday, August 26th, 15:00 (UK)

After starting the season on -8, Wigan are already back into the positive. The Latics have been excellent in winning three of their four league games (D1) and maintained their unbeaten start with a 4-0 demolition at Bolton. They’d find themselves at the top of the table without the deduction!

Shaun Maloney’s side have scored nine times in League One – an average of 2.25 per game. Only opponents Barnsley can match them, but the Tykes are flattered after scoring seven in their opening game.

Wigan average 14 shots per 90, with their nine goals coming from 17 shots on target. After shots totals of 24, 14 and 11 in their last three, you can expect plenty of home efforts with Callum Lang in the thick of the action.

The visitors are a Barnsley side who have lost consecutive home games 3-1 and conceded twice to League Two Tranmere in the EFL Cup before losing on penalties.

The Tykes face an average of 15 shots per game. In contrast, no League One side has allowed more shots on target than Barnsley’s 25, which should lead to Wigan chances.

Charlie Wyke has had a bright start and tops League One’s scoring charts with five goals, while fellow forward Stephen Humphrys netted twice last weekend. So, with Wigan netting on multiple times in three of their four league outings, take that trend to go in once more.

Expert: Matt Kirby
Selection: Over 1.5 Wigan goals
Best Odds: 2.00
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 7/10 (TRACKED BET)

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