BETSiE Bundesliga Projections

We’ve decided to let the cat, BETSiE, and her Bundesliga projections and table prediction out of the bag here at bettingexpert in a bid to assist our readers when it comes to predicting the Bundesliga in Germany.

What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.

The Latest BETSiE Bundesliga Projections

This weekend’s Bundesliga fixtures promise an engaging mix of matches as teams vie for vital points. Augsburg is favoured at home against Holstein Kiel, with a 52.4% chance of victory. Borussia Monchengladbach welcomes Hoffenheim in a game expected to be competitive. The hosts have a slight edge with a 49.3% win probability. Dortmund is heavily favored to win against Wolfsburg, with a 64.1% likelihood, underscoring their attacking prowess.

Freiburg faces a tough challenge against Bayer Leverkusen, who have a 48.4% chance of clinching an away win. Heidenheim and Bochum promise a closely matched encounter, with Heidenheim holding a 47.1% probability of victory.

Mainz hosts Eintracht Frankfurt in a match that’s expected to be tightly contested, with both teams displaying near-equal chances. In one of the weekend’s highlights, Bayern Munich is favored over RB Leipzig with a 54.4% likelihood of an away win.

St. Pauli faces Stuttgart with the visitors having a 43.4% probability of success, while Union Berlin is slightly favored against Werder Bremen at home. These fixtures offer a mix of potential upsets and expected victories in the Bundesliga action.

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Projected Bundesliga Matchday 32 Goal Totals: May 2nd-4th

Home	Away	HGF	AGF	GD	GT
Augsburg	Holstein Kiel	1.35	0.77	0.59	2.12
B. Monchengladbach	Hoffenheim	1.82	1.38	0.44	3.2
Dortmund	Wolfsburg	2.23	1.11	1.13	3.34
Freiburg	Bayer Leverkusen	0.88	1.32	-0.44	2.2
Heidenheim	Bochum	1.57	1.21	0.36	2.78
Mainz	Eintracht Frankfurt	1.63	1.54	0.08	3.17
RB Leipzig	Bayern Munich	1.2	1.86	-0.66	3.06
St. Pauli	Stuttgart	1.17	1.39	-0.22	2.56
Union Berlin	Werder Bremen	1.43	1.23	0.2	2.66

Bundesliga table prediction abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.

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Bundesliga Matchday 32 Projections: May 2nd-4th

HOME	AWAY	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %
Augsburg	Holstein Kiel	52.4%	25.6%	22.0%
B. Monchengladbach	Hoffenheim	49.3%	20.3%	30.4%
Dortmund	Wolfsburg	64.1%	17.3%	18.6%
Freiburg	Bayer Leverkusen	26.0%	25.6%	48.4%
Heidenheim	Bochum	47.1%	22.3%	30.6%
Mainz	Eintracht Frankfurt	41.3%	20.9%	37.7%
RB Leipzig	Bayern Munich	25.4%	20.2%	54.4%
St. Pauli	Stuttgart	32.8%	23.8%	43.4%
Union Berlin	Werder Bremen	43.1%	23.3%	33.7%

Bundesliga table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.

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BETSiE’s Projected Bundesliga Table Prediction

#	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	pts
1	Bayern Munich	34	25.0	6.5	2.5	97.4	32.0	65.4	81.6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	34	20.4	10.8	2.8	70.1	37.9	32.2	72.0
3	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	17.5	7.7	8.9	67.2	45.8	21.4	60.1
4	Freiburg	34	16.0	6.7	11.2	47.6	51.1	-3.5	54.8
5	Dortmund	34	15.7	6.5	11.8	66.0	52.4	13.6	53.6
6	RB Leipzig	34	14.1	10.7	9.2	52.5	46.6	5.8	53.1
7	Mainz	34	14.2	8.7	11.1	52.3	43.1	9.2	51.3
8	Werder Bremen	34	14.1	7.7	12.1	52.1	58.1	-6.1	50.1
9	B. Monchengladbach	34	14.0	5.5	14.5	55.5	56.5	-1.0	47.4
10	Augsburg	34	12.2	10.8	11.0	36.4	45.2	-8.8	47.3
11	Stuttgart	34	12.2	8.7	13.0	60.3	54.9	5.4	45.5
12	Wolfsburg	34	11.1	9.6	13.3	57.6	53.1	4.5	42.9
13	Union Berlin	34	10.2	9.8	14.0	34.9	48.4	-13.4	40.5
14	St. Pauli	34	8.9	7.7	17.4	29.4	40.5	-11.1	34.5
15	Hoffenheim	34	7.7	9.6	16.7	43.4	63.7	-20.3	32.7
16	Heidenheim	34	8.1	4.7	21.2	36.8	64.2	-27.4	28.9
17	Holstein Kiel	34	5.6	7.7	20.7	47.7	79.5	-31.8	24.5
18	Bochum	34	5.9	6.7	21.4	33.5	67.6	-34.1	24.4

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Bundesliga League Finish Probabilities

Club	Win League	Top 4	Top 5	Top Half	Bottom Half	Relegation	Relegation
Bayern Munich	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Bayer Leverkusen	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt	0.0%	99.0%	99.9%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Freiburg	0.0%	41.6%	68.5%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Dortmund	0.0%	31.1%	63.4%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
RB Leipzig	0.0%	19.9%	42.2%	99.5%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
Mainz	0.0%	6.1%	18.4%	97.5%	2.5%	0.0%	0.0%
Werder Bremen	0.0%	2.2%	7.3%	86.4%	13.6%	0.0%	0.0%
B. Monchengladbach	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	48.9%	51.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Augsburg	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	39.6%	60.4%	0.0%	0.0%
Stuttgart	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	24.3%	75.7%	0.0%	0.0%
Wolfsburg	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.0%	96.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Union Berlin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
St. Pauli	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	1.0%
Hoffenheim	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	8.2%
Heidenheim	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	15.4%	75.4%
Holstein Kiel	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	93.4%	6.5%
Bochum	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	91.1%	8.9%

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WHAT IS BETSiE and Her Bundesliga Projections?

BETSiE projects the entire Bundesliga season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

• Goals For / Against
• Shots For / Against
• Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Bundesliga fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Bundesliga season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.

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