Football 
Horse Racing BETSiE Bundesliga Projections
We’ve decided to let the cat, BETSiE, and her Bundesliga projections and table prediction out of the bag here at bettingexpert in a bid to assist our readers when it comes to predicting the Bundesliga in Germany.
What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.
The Latest BETSiE Bundesliga Projections
This weekend’s Bundesliga fixtures promise an engaging mix of matches as teams vie for vital points. Augsburg is favoured at home against Holstein Kiel, with a 52.4% chance of victory. Borussia Monchengladbach welcomes Hoffenheim in a game expected to be competitive. The hosts have a slight edge with a 49.3% win probability. Dortmund is heavily favored to win against Wolfsburg, with a 64.1% likelihood, underscoring their attacking prowess.
Freiburg faces a tough challenge against Bayer Leverkusen, who have a 48.4% chance of clinching an away win. Heidenheim and Bochum promise a closely matched encounter, with Heidenheim holding a 47.1% probability of victory.
Mainz hosts Eintracht Frankfurt in a match that’s expected to be tightly contested, with both teams displaying near-equal chances. In one of the weekend’s highlights, Bayern Munich is favored over RB Leipzig with a 54.4% likelihood of an away win.
St. Pauli faces Stuttgart with the visitors having a 43.4% probability of success, while Union Berlin is slightly favored against Werder Bremen at home. These fixtures offer a mix of potential upsets and expected victories in the Bundesliga action.
Projected Bundesliga Matchday 32 Goal Totals: May 2nd-4th
| Home | Away | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | Holstein Kiel | 1.35 | 0.77 | 0.59 | 2.12 |
| B. Monchengladbach | Hoffenheim | 1.82 | 1.38 | 0.44 | 3.2 |
| Dortmund | Wolfsburg | 2.23 | 1.11 | 1.13 | 3.34 |
| Freiburg | Bayer Leverkusen | 0.88 | 1.32 | -0.44 | 2.2 |
| Heidenheim | Bochum | 1.57 | 1.21 | 0.36 | 2.78 |
| Mainz | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.63 | 1.54 | 0.08 | 3.17 |
| RB Leipzig | Bayern Munich | 1.2 | 1.86 | -0.66 | 3.06 |
| St. Pauli | Stuttgart | 1.17 | 1.39 | -0.22 | 2.56 |
| Union Berlin | Werder Bremen | 1.43 | 1.23 | 0.2 | 2.66 |
Bundesliga table prediction abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.
Bundesliga Matchday 32 Projections: May 2nd-4th
| HOME | AWAY | Home Win % | Draw % | Away Win % |
| Augsburg | Holstein Kiel | 52.4% | 25.6% | 22.0% |
| B. Monchengladbach | Hoffenheim | 49.3% | 20.3% | 30.4% |
| Dortmund | Wolfsburg | 64.1% | 17.3% | 18.6% |
| Freiburg | Bayer Leverkusen | 26.0% | 25.6% | 48.4% |
| Heidenheim | Bochum | 47.1% | 22.3% | 30.6% |
| Mainz | Eintracht Frankfurt | 41.3% | 20.9% | 37.7% |
| RB Leipzig | Bayern Munich | 25.4% | 20.2% | 54.4% |
| St. Pauli | Stuttgart | 32.8% | 23.8% | 43.4% |
| Union Berlin | Werder Bremen | 43.1% | 23.3% | 33.7% |
Bundesliga table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.
BETSiE’s Projected Bundesliga Table Prediction
| # | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | pts |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 25.0 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 97.4 | 32.0 | 65.4 | 81.6 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 20.4 | 10.8 | 2.8 | 70.1 | 37.9 | 32.2 | 72.0 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 17.5 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 67.2 | 45.8 | 21.4 | 60.1 |
| 4 | Freiburg | 34 | 16.0 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 47.6 | 51.1 | -3.5 | 54.8 |
| 5 | Dortmund | 34 | 15.7 | 6.5 | 11.8 | 66.0 | 52.4 | 13.6 | 53.6 |
| 6 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 14.1 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 52.5 | 46.6 | 5.8 | 53.1 |
| 7 | Mainz | 34 | 14.2 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 52.3 | 43.1 | 9.2 | 51.3 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 12.1 | 52.1 | 58.1 | -6.1 | 50.1 |
| 9 | B. Monchengladbach | 34 | 14.0 | 5.5 | 14.5 | 55.5 | 56.5 | -1.0 | 47.4 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 34 | 12.2 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 36.4 | 45.2 | -8.8 | 47.3 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 34 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 13.0 | 60.3 | 54.9 | 5.4 | 45.5 |
| 12 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 13.3 | 57.6 | 53.1 | 4.5 | 42.9 |
| 13 | Union Berlin | 34 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 14.0 | 34.9 | 48.4 | -13.4 | 40.5 |
| 14 | St. Pauli | 34 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 17.4 | 29.4 | 40.5 | -11.1 | 34.5 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 16.7 | 43.4 | 63.7 | -20.3 | 32.7 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 21.2 | 36.8 | 64.2 | -27.4 | 28.9 |
| 17 | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 20.7 | 47.7 | 79.5 | -31.8 | 24.5 |
| 18 | Bochum | 34 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 21.4 | 33.5 | 67.6 | -34.1 | 24.4 |
Bundesliga League Finish Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 4 | Top 5 | Top Half | Bottom Half | Relegation | Relegation |
| Bayern Munich | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.0% | 99.0% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Freiburg | 0.0% | 41.6% | 68.5% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dortmund | 0.0% | 31.1% | 63.4% | 99.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| RB Leipzig | 0.0% | 19.9% | 42.2% | 99.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mainz | 0.0% | 6.1% | 18.4% | 97.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Werder Bremen | 0.0% | 2.2% | 7.3% | 86.4% | 13.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| B. Monchengladbach | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 48.9% | 51.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Augsburg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 39.6% | 60.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stuttgart | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.3% | 75.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wolfsburg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 96.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Union Berlin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| St. Pauli | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Hoffenheim | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 8.2% |
| Heidenheim | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 15.4% | 75.4% |
| Holstein Kiel | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 93.4% | 6.5% |
| Bochum | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 91.1% | 8.9% |
WHAT IS BETSiE and Her Bundesliga Projections?
BETSiE projects the entire Bundesliga season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Bundesliga fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Bundesliga season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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