BETSiE Championship Projections

Here she is; BETSiE and her Championship projections and table prediction now have a home on bettingexpert in a bid to help our readers predict Europe’s most unpredictable division, England’s second tier.

What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.

The Latest BETSiE Championship Projections

This weekend’s English Championship fixtures offer a thrilling mix of contests as teams jostle for crucial points. Bristol City is slightly fancied at home against Preston in a monumental final day clash, boasting a 44.1% chance of securing a victory. Burnley appears set for success against Millwall, with a commanding 59.0% likelihood of winning as Millwall attempt to sneak into a playoff spot.

Coventry hosts Middlesbrough in a closely contested match, with Coventry holding a slight edge at 46.5%. Derby faces Stoke in a competitive matchup, with the visitors having a slight 32.5% chance edge as both attempt to swerve relegation.

Norwich is favourably positioned against an already-relegated Cardiff side with a 49.5% likelihood of victory, while Plymouth faces a daunting task against Leeds, who hold a dominant 75.9% win probability at Home Park.

Portsmouth’s clash with Hull is evenly matched, though Hull has a slight edge. Sheffield United is well-positioned for a win against Blackburn, with a 55.9% chance. Sunderland is expected to outperform QPR with a 52.2% chance of victory, while Swansea is favoured against Oxford United with 53.5%. Watford’s encounter with Sheffield Wednesday is tightly contested, with the hosts having a slight edge.

Finally, West Brom is favoured to secure all three points against Luton despite the visitors’ recent uptick and need to win.

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BETSiE’s Projected Championship 2024/25 Table Prediction

Updated: April 29th 2025

#	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	pts
1	Leeds	46	28.8	13.1	4.1	95.5	29.7	65.8	99.4
2	Burnley	46	27.6	16.2	2.2	67.5	15.7	51.9	99.0
3	Sheffield Utd	46	28.6	7.2	10.2	63.6	35.8	27.8	90.9
4	Sunderland	46	21.5	13.3	11.2	59.5	43.8	15.6	77.8
5	Bristol City	46	17.4	16.3	12.3	58.3	54.0	4.3	68.6
6	Coventry	46	19.5	9.2	17.3	63.7	59.3	4.4	67.6
7	Millwall	46	18.2	12.2	15.6	46.7	47.5	-0.9	66.7
8	Blackburn	46	19.2	8.2	18.6	52.8	48.6	4.2	65.8
9	Middlesbrough	46	18.3	10.2	17.5	65.3	55.7	9.6	65.2
10	West Brom	46	14.5	19.3	12.2	53.3	44.8	8.5	62.7
11	Swansea	46	17.5	9.3	19.2	49.4	53.7	-4.3	61.9
12	Sheffield Wed	46	15.4	12.3	18.4	60.2	69.3	-9.1	58.3
13	Watford	46	16.4	8.3	21.4	53.3	61.2	-7.9	57.4
14	Norwich	46	13.5	15.3	17.3	68.5	67.0	1.5	55.7
15	Portsmouth	46	14.4	11.3	20.4	58.2	71.2	-13.0	54.4
16	QPR	46	13.2	14.3	18.5	52.8	64.5	-11.6	53.9
17	Oxford Utd	46	13.2	13.3	19.5	46.7	63.4	-16.7	52.9
18	Stoke	46	12.3	14.3	19.4	45.9	63.0	-17.1	51.3
19	Derby	46	13.4	10.3	22.3	49.0	56.9	-7.9	50.4
20	Preston	46	10.3	19.3	16.4	47.0	58.3	-11.3	50.2
21	Luton	46	13.2	10.3	22.5	42.8	65.3	-22.5	50
22	Hull	46	12.4	12.3	21.4	44.2	54.2	-10	49.4
23	Plymouth	46	11.1	13.1	21.8	50.7	88.5	-37.8	46.4
24	Cardiff	46	9.3	17.3	19.5	47	70.5	-23.5	45

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Gearing Up For A Playoff Push: So Close Between 5th and 9th

BETSiE projects a second-place automatic promotion finish for the Clarets, five points away from Sheffield United in third. Burnley’s 12-game jaunt of successive clean sheets recently came to a grinding halt at the hands of a limp Cardiff comeback with the Welsh outfit 0-2 down. With the signing of Marcus Edwards from Sporting Lisbon and the return of Manuel Benson from injury, it feels like an injection of fresh blood that can tip the scales in the Clarets’ favour when a Championship fixture looks to be sliding towards another 0-0, something that has reared its head in eleven outings already.

Very comfortably in fourth with a large gap between fifth, it’s Regis Le Bris’ Sunderland. The Black Cats have a very real shot at Premier League football in 2025/26. Enzo Le Fee was plucked from Roma in January, largely thanks to a pre-existing relationship with Regis Le Bris that was struck up in Ligue 1, a long way away from Sunderland. Le Fee joined a Sunderland setup where Wilson Isidor has made the most seamless switch from Zenit in Russia, adding to a youthful but very capable squad in the North East.

Not Lampard’s First Wembley trip

BETSiE has Frank Lampard’s Coventry projected for a fifth-placed finish by the time the music stops after 46 fixtures. However, they’re not a million miles away from those below them. The new management team in that part of the world has flipped Coventry’s season on its head following Mark Robins vacating the club after 2803 days and two promotions in charge at the club.

Next, in the sixth and final playoff spot, Bristol City sits just behind Coventry and in front of Middlesbrough. Ahh, Bristol City. BETSiE projects that the Robins will stealthily sneak into the picture. City have now been in the second tier for the ten consecutive seasons. Their highest finish in that time was eighth. BETSiE fancies them to outmanoeuvre that league-high this time around. Can they go one better and reach the Premier League? We’ll see.

Agonisingly close

Norwich City is tipped just miss out on a top-half finish after a slight, half-hearted promotion push, but again, it’s one that should dwindle away into nothingness in terms of post-season activity. Swansea, West Brom and Blackburn Rovers under new management are predicted to squabble over the stretch of the table outside of playoff contention. Valerien Ismael lands in Blackburn for his fourth Championship job, with question marks rightly surrounding Rovers’ trajectory from here on out, given the stage of the season and circumstances around John Eustace fleeing the club for a relegation dogfight with Derby County.

Michael Carrick’s Middlesbrough, a team that finished four points shy of Norwich’s 73-point total in sixth last season, has flattered to deceive for an extended spell, with their season on course for another stay in the Championship in 2025/26. A five-game losing stretch for Boro throughout February has somewhat derailed promotion hopes after their head-turning blunt run and Emmanuel Latte Lath leaving for the MLS. 

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Projected Championship Matchday 46 Goal Totals: April 26th

HOME	AWAY	HGF	AGF	GD	GT
Bristol City	Preston	1.33	1.04	0.29	2.37
Burnley	Millwall	1.52	0.65	0.87	2.17
Coventry	Middlesbrough	1.66	1.31	0.35	2.97
Derby	Stoke	1.04	0.93	0.1	1.97
Norwich	Cardiff	1.46	0.95	0.5	2.41
Plymouth	Leeds	0.74	2.50	-1.76	3.23
Portsmouth	Hull	1.19	1.18	0.01	2.36
Sheffield Utd	Blackburn	1.58	0.82	0.76	2.39
Sunderland	QPR	1.45	0.84	0.61	2.29
Swansea	Oxford Utd	1.36	0.7	0.66	2.06
Watford	Sheffield Wed	1.30	1.22	0.09	2.52
West Brom	Luton	1.26	0.80	0.46	2.07

 

Championship matchday prediction abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.

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Does BETSiE cover any other leagues in the EFL? Yes, Click the graphics below!

The Championship isn’t the only league BETSiE dares to navigate from the The English Football League. Although notoriously hard to bet on, BETSiE runs simulations for every single game on all 46 matchdays of both League 1 and League 2 below:

League One: Birmingham’s crown and a relegation dogfight

League Two: Does anyone want the win League Two?

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Championship Matchday 45 Projections: April 26th

HOME	AWAY	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %
Bristol City	Preston	44.1%	26.1%	29.8%
Burnley	Millwall	59.0%	24.7%	16.4%
Coventry	Middlesbrough	46.5%	22.6%	30.9%
Derby	Stoke	37.8%	29.7%	32.5%
Norwich	Cardiff	49.5%	25.2%	25.3%
Plymouth	Leeds	9.5%	14.6%	75.9%
Portsmouth	Hull	36.9%	26.5%	36.5%
Sheffield Utd	Blackburn	55.9%	24.1%	20.0%
Sunderland	QPR	52.2%	25.5%	22.3%
Swansea	Oxford Utd	53.5%	26.9%	19.6%
Watford	Sheffield Wed	39.4%	25.4%	35.2%
West Brom	Luton	47.9%	27.9%	24.3%

 

BETSiE abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.

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BETSiE Championship Projections: League Finish Probabilities

Club	Win League	Top 2 Finish	Playoffs	Top 6 Finish	Top Half Finish	Bottom Half Finish	Relegation
Leeds	83.4%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Burnley	16.6%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sheffield Utd	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sunderland	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Bristol City	0.0%	0.0%	86.4%	86.4%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Coventry	0.0%	0.0%	63.6%	63.6%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Millwall	0.0%	0.0%	12.6%	12.6%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Blackburn	0.0%	0.0%	13.9%	13.9%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Middlesbrough	0.0%	0.0%	23.4%	23.4%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
West Brom	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Swansea	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sheffield Wed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	61.9%	38.1%	0.0%
Watford	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	38.1%	61.9%	0.0%
Norwich	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
Portsmouth	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
QPR	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
Oxford Utd	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
Stoke	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	1.7%
Derby	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	4.3%
Preston	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	15.2%
Luton	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	34.5%
Hull	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	44.3%
Plymouth	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Cardiff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%

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What is BETSiE and Her Championship Projections?

BETSiE projects the entire Championship season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

• Goals For / Against
• Shots For / Against
• Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into each Championship fixture and offers a prediction and goal total, plus the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing upcoming fixtures.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.

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