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Here she is; BETSiE and her Championship projections and table prediction now have a home on bettingexpert in a bid to help our readers predict Europe’s most unpredictable division, England’s second tier.
What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.
The Latest BETSiE Championship Projections
Coventry (28.4%) are slight underdogs against Sheffield United, while Norwich (42.8%) face a tough test against West Brom (29.6%). Leeds (72.8%) remain dominant against Swansea, while Sunderland (54.5%) look strong against Millwall.
Plymouth (98.3%) and Luton (70.0%) are in deep relegation trouble, with both fighting for survival.
Leeds are overwhelming title favorites (69.3%), projected to secure automatic promotion. Sunderland and Burnley battle for playoff spots, while Derby (39.5%) and Luton (70.0%) face the drop. Matchday 38 promises key twists in the Championship race.
BETSiE’s Projected Championship 2024/25 Table Prediction
| # | Club | W | D | L | GF | GA | XPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leeds | 28.7 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 92.6 | 30.0 | 98.5 |
| 2 | Sheffield Utd | 29.1 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 65.3 | 35.5 | 96.3 |
| 3 | Burnley | 24.5 | 17.5 | 4.0 | 61.1 | 17.3 | 91.0 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 22.8 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 66.4 | 44.8 | 82.5 |
| 5 | Coventry | 20.6 | 10.0 | 15.4 | 67.3 | 57.4 | 71.9 |
| 6 | West Brom | 16.3 | 20.1 | 9.5 | 58.5 | 42.9 | 69.1 |
| 7 | Bristol City | 16.4 | 17.1 | 12.6 | 57.6 | 52.4 | 66.1 |
| 8 | Middlesbrough | 18.0 | 11.0 | 16.9 | 67.2 | 58.0 | 65.2 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wed | 17.3 | 10.9 | 17.7 | 65.2 | 69.8 | 62.9 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 17.9 | 9.2 | 19.0 | 51.5 | 49.8 | 62.7 |
| 11 | Watford | 17.9 | 9.1 | 19.0 | 56.9 | 61.2 | 62.7 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15.5 | 15.2 | 15.3 | 70.6 | 62.1 | 61.6 |
| 13 | Millwall | 15.2 | 14.4 | 16.4 | 43.9 | 48.2 | 60.1 |
| 14 | Preston | 13.1 | 19.2 | 13.7 | 48.6 | 52.8 | 58.6 |
| 15 | QPR | 13.8 | 14.4 | 17.8 | 52.0 | 58.0 | 55.8 |
| 16 | Swansea | 14.9 | 10.2 | 21.0 | 46.8 | 58.2 | 54.8 |
| 17 | Hull | 13.0 | 13.3 | 19.7 | 48.4 | 55.7 | 52.4 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 13.3 | 11.0 | 21.7 | 55.2 | 73.6 | 50.8 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11.5 | 14.2 | 20.3 | 50.4 | 72.0 | 48.7 |
| 20 | Oxford Utd | 11.4 | 14.0 | 20.6 | 44.6 | 67.4 | 48.2 |
| 21 | Stoke | 11.4 | 14 | 20.7 | 46.1 | 63.3 | 48.1 |
| 22 | Derby | 12.2 | 10.3 | 23.5 | 47.2 | 60.8 | 46.8 |
| 23 | Luton | 11.5 | 10.2 | 24.3 | 42.4 | 70.2 | 44.7 |
| 24 | Plymouth | 8.5 | 13.8 | 23.7 | 47.1 | 91.3 | 39.3 |
Gearing Up For A Playoff Push: Just Nine Points Between 5th and 9th
BETSiE projects a third-place finish for the Clarets, 5.3 points away from Sheffield United in the second automatic promotion spot. Burnley’s 12-game jaunt of successive clean sheets recently came to a grinding halt at the hands of a limp Cardiff comeback with the Welsh outfit 0-2 down. Eleven goals conceded in 38 matches has been the bedrock of Burnley’s points haul to this point. With the signing of Marcus Edwards from Sporting Lisbon and the return of Manuel Benson from injury, it feels like an injection of fresh blood that can tip the scales in the Clarets’ favour when a Championship fixture looks to be sliding towards another 0-0, something that has reared its head in eleven outings already.
Very comfortably in fourth, 10.6 points ahead of fifth spot, it’s Regis Le Bris’ Sunderland. The Black Cats have a very real shot at Premier League football in 2025/26. Enzo Le Fee was plucked from Roma in January, largely thanks to a pre-existing relationship with Regis Le Bris that was struck up in Ligue 1, a long way away from Sunderland. Le Fee joined a Sunderland setup where Wilson Isidor has made the most seamless switch from Zenit in Russia, adding to a youthful but very capable squad in the North East.
Not Lampard’s First Wembley trip
No Championship side has returned more points than Coventry City over the last ten fixtures (24). Frank Lampard’s Sky Blues are equal with Leeds United in the ten-game form table as they barge their way into fifth spot in the division. The new management team in that part of the world has flipped Coventry’s season on its head following Mark Robins vacating the club after 2803 days and two promotions in charge at the club.
BETSiE has Coventry projected for a fifth-placed position by the time the music stops after 46 fixtures. Next, in the sixth and final playoff spot, West Brom sits 2.8 points behind the Sky Blues and just three points in front of Bristol City.
Can the Baggies, harness momentum and stay close to those in front of them? Going off their performance versus Leeds United at Elland Road, yes, they can. West Brom were bright and worked through Leeds’ press as well as any side we’ve seen at Elland Road this campaign. Only two teams have generated more Expected Goals against Leeds at home than West Brom (0.77xG) in 2024/5: Luton Town and Oxford United. If Mowbray’s men can serve up a performance like that against a team destined for Premier League football next term, then they can piece together a playoff charge. BETSiE agrees.
Agonisingly close
Norwich City is the club tipped in last place in terms of a top-half finish after a slight, half-hearted promotion push, but again, it’s one that should dwindle away into nothingness in terms of post-season activity. The 61.6 projected points total sees the Canaries fall just behind Watford in 11th. Both Blackburn Rovers and Sheffield Wednesday are predicted to squabble over 9th and 10th, just outside of the playoff picture, with the former needing to adapt to new management and a differing style of play. Valerien Ismael lands in Blackburn for his fourth Championship job, with question marks rightly surrounding Rovers’ trajectory from here on out, given the stage of the season and circumstances around John Eustace fleeing the club for a relegation dogfight with Derby County.
Michael Carrick’s Middlesbrough, a team that finished four points shy of Norwich’s 73-point total in sixth last season, is in 8th. A five-game losing stretch for Boro throughout February has somewhat derailed promotion hopes. However, after their head-turning blunt run and Emmanuel Latte Lath leaving for the MLS, they’ve now bounced back to winning ways with back-to-back victories and just one defeat in five. Perhaps we shouldn’t be too quick to write off the Riverside faithful?
Ahh, Bristol City. BETSiE projects that the Robins will come the closest, but with no cigar. City have been in the second tier for the tenth consecutive season. Their highest finish in that time was eighth. BETSiE fancies them to go one better this time around. Can they go one better and sneak past West Brom? We shall see.
Projected Championship Matchday 39 Goal Totals: March 28th – April 2nd
| HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
| Burnley | Bristol City | 1.43 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 2.17 |
| Cardiff | Sheffield Wed | 1.37 | 1.31 | 0.06 | 2.68 |
| Derby | Preston | 0.93 | 1.12 | -0.19 | 2.05 |
| Hull | Luton | 1.21 | 0.90 | 0.31 | 2.1 |
| Leeds | Swansea | 2.10 | 0.58 | 1.52 | 2.68 |
| Middlesbrough | Oxford Utd | 1.64 | 0.68 | 0.95 | 2.32 |
| Norwich | West Brom | 1.31 | 1.04 | 0.27 | 2.36 |
| Portsmouth | Blackburn | 1.23 | 1.36 | -0.12 | 2.59 |
| Sheffield Utd | Coventry | 1.62 | 1.21 | 0.42 | 2.83 |
| Stoke | QPR | 1.15 | 1.12 | 0.03 | 2.27 |
| Sunderland | Millwall | 1.45 | 0.72 | 0.73 | 2.17 |
| Watford | Plymouth | 1.70 | 0.94 | 0.76 | 2.64 |
Championship table prediction abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.
Championship Matchday 39 Projections: March 28th – April 2nd
| HOME | AWAY | Home Win % | Draw % | Away Win % |
| Burnley | Bristol City | 53.7% | 27.1% | 19.2% |
| Cardiff | Sheffield Wed | 38.5% | 25.9% | 35.6% |
| Derby | Preston | 29.9% | 30.2% | 39.9% |
| Hull | Luton | 43.1% | 29.4% | 27.4% |
| Leeds | Swansea | 72.8% | 18.2% | 9.0% |
| Middlesbrough | Oxford Utd | 60.4% | 24.3% | 15.3% |
| Norwich | West Brom | 42.8% | 27.6% | 29.6% |
| Portsmouth | Blackburn | 33.9% | 26.4% | 39.7% |
| Sheffield Utd | Coventry | 47.1% | 24.5% | 28.4% |
| Stoke | QPR | 36.5% | 28.6% | 34.9% |
| Sunderland | Millwall | 54.5% | 26.9% | 18.6% |
| Watford | Plymouth | 55.3% | 24.0% | 20.7% |
Championship table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.
League Finish Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 Finish | Playoffs | Top 6 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 69.3% | 97.0% | 3.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sheffield Utd | 27.8% | 82.6% | 17.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Burnley | 2.9% | 20.2% | 79.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sunderland | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Coventry | 0.0% | 0.0% | 81.4% | 81.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| West Brom | 0.0% | 0.0% | 60.4% | 60.4% | 99.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Bristol City | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% | 96.9% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Middlesbrough | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.1% | 17.1% | 94.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Sheffield Wed | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 76.6% | 23.4% | 0.0% |
| Blackburn | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 79.1% | 20.9% | 0.0% |
| Watford | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 75.4% | 24.6% | 0.0% |
| Norwich | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 72.5% | 27.5% | 0.0% |
| Millwall | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 48.9% | 51.1% | 0.0% |
| Preston | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 34.7% | 65.3% | 0.0% |
| QPR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.7% | 87.3% | 0.2% |
| Swansea | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 94.0% | 0.6% |
| Hull | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 97.3% | 3.4% |
| Portsmouth | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 99.2% | 8.2% |
| Cardiff | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 23.8% |
| Oxford Utd | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 27.7% |
| Stoke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 28.3% |
| Derby | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 39.5% |
| Luton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 70.0% |
| Plymouth | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 98.3% |
What is BETSiE and Her Championship Projections?
BETSiE projects the entire Championship season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into each Championship fixture and offers a prediction and goal total, plus the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing upcoming fixtures.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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