BETSiE Serie A Projections

We’ve decided to unveil BETSiE and her Serie A projections and table prediction here at bettingexpert in a bid to help our readers sidestep whatever potholes the Italian top flight serves up throughout the 2024/25 season.

What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.

The Latest BETSiE Serie A Projections

This weekend’s Serie A fixtures present a blend of challenges and opportunities for the teams involved. AS Roma is slightly fancies at home against Fiorentina, with a 50.4% chance of victory, indicating a competitive match-up.

Bologna’s encounter with Juventus promises to be closely contested, as Bologna holds a narrow edge for success, and Juventus has a 35.1% win probability. Cagliari hosts Udinese, with Cagliari holding a modest 41.0% chance of securing a home win.

Lazio is expected to perform well against Empoli, with a 50.0% probability favouring the visitors. Meanwhile, AC Milan is favoured with a 52.0% chance of winning against Genoa. Inter Milan is backed to secure a victory over Verona, boasting a 78.7% likelihood of success, demonstrating their strong form. Napoli is also expected to triumph over Lecce, with a dominant 65.1% chance.

Atalanta is heavy favourites against Monza, with a 71.5% probability of clinching an away win. Finally, Torino is looking to capitalise on their home advantage over Venezia, with a 46.0% chance of victory, vying for crucial points.

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Projected Serie A Matchday 35 Goal Totals: May 2nd-5th

HOME	AWAY	HGF	AGF	GD	GT
AS Roma	Fiorentina	1.41	0.87	0.54	2.28
Bologna	Juventus	1.04	1.02	0.02	2.05
Cagliari	Udinese	1.21	1.03	0.18	2.24
Empoli	Lazio	0.95	1.47	-0.52	2.42
Genoa	AC Milan	0.87	1.47	-0.6	2.35
Inter	Verona	2.34	0.52	1.82	2.86
Lecce	Napoli	0.65	1.77	-1.12	2.42
Monza	Atalanta	0.64	2.08	-1.44	2.73
Parma	Como	0.99	1.37	-0.38	2.36
Torino	Venezia	1.12	0.72	0.4	1.85

Serie A table prediction abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.

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Serie A Matchday 35 Projections: May 2nd-5th

HOME	AWAY	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %
AS Roma	Fiorentina	50.4%	25.7%	24.0%
Bologna	Juventus	36.1%	28.8%	35.1%
Cagliari	Udinese	41.0%	27.1%	31.9%
Empoli	Lazio	25.1%	24.9%	50.0%
Genoa	AC Milan	23.0%	25.0%	52.0%
Inter	Verona	78.7%	14.4%	6.9%
Lecce	Napoli	13.6%	21.3%	65.1%
Monza	Atalanta	10.8%	17.7%	71.5%
Parma	Como	27.8%	25.7%	46.5%
Torino	Venezia	46.0%	29.9%	24.1%

Serie A table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.

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BETSiE’s Projected Serie A Table Prediction

#	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Napoli	38	24.4	9.0	4.6	60.3	27.6	32.8	82.2
2	Inter	38	23.6	8.8	5.5	79.4	35.7	43.7	79.7
3	Atalanta	38	21.4	8.9	7.7	74.2	34.2	40.0	73.1
4	Juventus	38	17.9	15.1	5.0	56.6	34.6	22.0	68.8
5	Bologna	38	17.5	14.2	6.4	56.2	41.1	15.1	66.6
6	AS Roma	38	18.7	10.1	9.3	54.2	36.4	17.8	66.1
7	Lazio	38	18.7	10.0	9.4	62.3	49.6	12.7	66.0
8	Fiorentina	38	18.5	9.1	10.4	57.4	38.3	19.1	64.5
9	AC Milan	38	17.2	9.9	10.9	60.0	41.9	18.1	61.4
10	Torino	38	11.2	14.1	12.7	41.5	43.5	-2.0	47.7
11	Como	38	12.5	10.1	15.4	48.7	52.4	-3.7	47.7
12	Udinese	38	12.4	9.0	16.6	40.5	53.0	-12.5	46.2
13	Genoa	38	9.8	13.1	15.1	31.8	46.3	-14.5	42.5
14	Cagliari	38	9.3	10.1	18.6	39.1	53.7	-14.6	38.0
15	Verona	38	10.1	6.0	21.9	33.7	67.7	-34.0	36.3
16	Parma	38	6.8	14.9	16.3	43.5	59.8	-16.3	35.4
17	Empoli	38	5.6	14.1	18.4	31.9	58.5	-26.6	30.8
18	Lecce	38	6.8	10.0	21.2	27.1	62.1	-35.0	30.5
19	Venezia	38	4.8	14.1	19.1	30.0	53.5	-23.4	28.6
20	Monza	38	2.6	9.8	25.5	28.0	66.7	-38.7	17.7

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Serie A League Finish Probabilities

Club	Win League	Top 2 Finish	Top 4 Finish	Top 6 Finish	Top Half Finish	Bottom Half Finish	Relegation
Napoli	73.1%	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Inter	26.9%	96.8%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Atalanta	0.1%	3.6%	97.5%	99.9%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Juventus	0.0%	0.0%	56.6%	89.3%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Bologna	0.0%	0.0%	16.8%	60.6%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AS Roma	0.0%	0.0%	12.8%	57.7%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Lazio	0.0%	0.0%	10.0%	49.2%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Fiorentina	0.0%	0.0%	6.1%	36.2%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AC Milan	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	7.2%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Torino	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	44.5%	55.5%	0.0%
Como	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	40.5%	59.5%	0.0%
Udinese	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.1%	85.9%	0.0%
Genoa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	99.1%	0.0%
Cagliari	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.1%
Verona	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	2.7%
Parma	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	1.4%
Empoli	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	50.0%
Lecce	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	65.0%
Venezia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	80.9%
Monza	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%

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What is BETSiE and Her Serie A Projections?

BETSiE projects the entire Serie A season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

• Goals For / Against
• Shots For / Against
• Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Serie A fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Serie A season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.

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