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Mixed martial arts BETSiE England League 1 Projections: The Hunt For Automatics
We’ve decided to unveil BETSiE and her England League 1 projections and table prediction here at bettingexpert in a bid to assist our readers throughout the 2024/25 season. Will Wrexham and Stockport make it successive promotions? Can Birmingham bounce back at the first time of asking?
And what is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.
The Latest BETSiE England League 1 Projections
Birmingham (107.5 pts) are nailed-on champions with a 100% title chance. Wrexham (87.9 pts, 53.9% for top two) edge Wycombe (86.5 pts, 36.3%) in the race for automatic promotion.
Stockport and Charlton are playoff locks, while Reading, Bolton and Huddersfield are still in the mix.
At the bottom, Shrewsbury (100%) and Cambridge (97.2%) are staring at relegation. Crawley (92.7%) are almost gone, while Bristol Rovers (7.3%) and Burton (2.7%) cling to survival hopes.
Huddersfield are heavy favourites to beat Cambridge, and Wrexham are backed to see off Bristol Rovers. With only four games left, BETSiE’s models show every result now could swing the race for promotion or survival.
BETSiE’s England League 1 Table Prediction
| # | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 46 | 32.7 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 84.1 | 33.9 | 50.2 | 107.5 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 46 | 25.6 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 64.6 | 37.1 | 27.5 | 87.9 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 46 | 24.5 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 72.2 | 42.2 | 30.0 | 86.5 |
| 4 | Stockport County | 46 | 23.7 | 12.0 | 10.3 | 68.4 | 41.7 | 26.7 | 83.0 |
| 5 | Charlton | 46 | 23.8 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 63.9 | 42.6 | 21.3 | 82.4 |
| 6 | Reading | 46 | 20.6 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 65.4 | 57.3 | 8.0 | 74.6 |
| 7 | Bolton | 46 | 21.8 | 6.9 | 17.2 | 69.2 | 66.9 | 2.3 | 72.4 |
| 8 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 21.3 | 6.9 | 17.7 | 66.3 | 49.2 | 17.1 | 70.9 |
| 9 | Huddersfield | 46 | 21.0 | 7.9 | 17.1 | 60.3 | 48.4 | 12.0 | 70.8 |
| 10 | Blackpool | 46 | 17.0 | 16.1 | 12.9 | 70.3 | 60.1 | 10.3 | 67.1 |
| 11 | Barnsley | 46 | 17.9 | 9.8 | 18.3 | 67.4 | 69.9 | -2.5 | 63.5 |
| 12 | Rotherham | 46 | 16.8 | 9.9 | 19.3 | 54.9 | 58.6 | -3.7 | 60.4 |
| 13 | Lincoln | 46 | 15.3 | 14.0 | 16.7 | 61.8 | 54.6 | 7.2 | 59.9 |
| 14 | Stevenage | 46 | 15.6 | 11.2 | 19.1 | 43.9 | 50.9 | -7.0 | 58.2 |
| 15 | Exeter | 46 | 15.3 | 11.0 | 19.7 | 49.8 | 63.6 | -13.8 | 56.9 |
| 16 | Peterborough | 46 | 14.6 | 10.1 | 21.3 | 69.0 | 80.9 | -11.9 | 53.8 |
| 17 | Mansfield | 46 | 14.8 | 9.1 | 22.2 | 56.2 | 67.2 | -11.0 | 53.4 |
| 18 | Wigan | 46 | 12.6 | 15.3 | 18.1 | 40.8 | 45.8 | -5.0 | 53.2 |
| 19 | Northampton | 46 | 12.6 | 15.0 | 18.5 | 47.2 | 64.1 | -16.8 | 52.7 |
| 20 | Burton | 46 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 21.3 | 49.7 | 66.6 | -16.9 | 47.6 |
| 21 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 25.9 | 47.1 | 74.6 | -27.4 | 46.6 |
| 22 | Crawley | 46 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 25.7 | 53.9 | 86.9 | -33 | 41 |
| 23 | Cambridge Utd | 46 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 25 | 44.4 | 72.6 | -28.2 | 39.1 |
| 24 | Shrewsbury | 46 | 8.2 | 10 | 27.8 | 41.6 | 76.9 | -35.3 | 34.7 |
The Quest For Automatics and The Scrap For L1 Survival Is Still Alive
Birmingham coast to a League 1 crown. Wrexham adds another promotion to their Hollywood story. The chasing pack sees Wycombe unable to land a spot in the top two, whilst Steven Schumacher’s Bolton, Nathan Jones’ Charlton, and Dave Challinor’s Stockport County face playoff football in League 1.
The nine Huddersfield defeats up to April 53.6 in this calendar year are deemed fatal by BETSiE. Their top six hopes vacate out of the back door, along with recently departed Michael Duff. Reading FC, despite the circus behind the scenes at the football club, manoeuvre their way into 7th, ahead of the Terriers, 0.8 projected points behind Bolton – cruel.
Leyton Orient, Blackpool, Barnsley and Lincoln make up the top half. Of the remaining top-half fodder, the standout for the top six in the ante-post betting was the Seasiders, who had previously missed out on the playoffs by three points in 2023/24 and commanded a 3.25 price to finish the season in the top six places. After two back-to-back defeats for Neil Critchley’s Blackpool to begin the campaign in August, he was shown the door by Simon Sadler.
Rotherham, in 13th, have endured an abysmal season by their standards. Relegated from the Championship last season, Steve Evans’ task was overseeing a swift return to the second tier. The South Yorkshire club were just 4.00 to be promoted in 2024/25 in the ante-post betting. There will have been many punters who chanced their arm at 12.00 to win League 1, with the noise and incomings coming out of the club in the summer, mainly from Steve Evans.
Further Down the Table…
Further down the table, just below Peterborough’s (17th) disappointing season, Ryan Lowe’s Wigan are projected an 18th-placed finish on 53.6 points, seeing his new-ish side leapfrog Northampton, who currently sits in 18th in the real world’s standings.
Bristol Rovers, who were 4.33 to be relegated before a ball was kicked in the summer, are the most unfortunate club in the third tier this campaign. BETSiE predicts the Gas won’t pick up enough points in the final five games following Burton Albion’s change in form and fortunes..
Shrewsbury, now without Gareth Ainsworth in the dugout, continue to scrap for their lives at the foot of the table, accumulating seven points across the run-in. Ultimately, it’s not enough, considering Cambridge, Crawley, and Burton, in that order, also pick up enough points to stay away from the foot of the table.
Crawley were 4.50 favourites to finish bottom this campaign under the guidance of club owners WAGMI. The club was stripped of assets, with star players sold once again, but despite that, they’ve proven throughout the campaign that they’re not the worst club in League 1. That, according to the numbers and BETSiE, is Shrewsbury Town.
Projected England League 1 Matchday 43 Goal Totals: April 18th
| HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | Crawley | 2.14 | 0.71 | 1.44 | 2.85 |
| Bolton | Wycombe | 1.60 | 1.18 | 0.42 | 2.78 |
| Charlton | Northampton | 1.64 | 1.01 | 0.63 | 2.64 |
| Exeter | Burton | 1.48 | 1.13 | 0.36 | 2.61 |
| Huddersfield | Cambridge Utd | 1.92 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 2.84 |
| Leyton Orient | Barnsley | 1.61 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 3.21 |
| Peterborough | Stockport County | 1.30 | 1.41 | -0.11 | 2.71 |
| Reading | Lincoln | 1.57 | 1.30 | 0.27 | 2.87 |
| Rotherham | Mansfield | 2.04 | 1.40 | 0.64 | 3.44 |
| Shrewsbury | Wigan | 1.19 | 1.06 | 0.13 | 2.25 |
| Stevenage | Blackpool | 1.44 | 1.28 | 0.16 | 2.72 |
| Wrexham | Bristol Rovers | 1.75 | 1.03 | 0.72 | 2.77 |
BETSiE England League 1 Goal Total abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.
England League 1 Matchday 43 Projections: April 18th
| Home | Away | Home % | Draw % | Away % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | Crawley | 71.50% | 17.5% | 11.0% |
| Bolton | Wycombe | 47.8% | 23.6% | 28.6% |
| Charlton | Northampton | 52.9% | 23.5% | 23.6% |
| Exeter | Burton | 46.1% | 24.6% | 29.2% |
| Huddersfield | Cambridge Utd | 61.70% | 20.60% | 17.70% |
| Leyton Orient | Barnsley | 38.90% | 22.2% | 38.8% |
| Peterborough | Stockport County | 35.2% | 24.5% | 40.3% |
| Reading | Lincoln | 44.4% | 23.5% | 32.1% |
| Rotherham | Mansfield | 53.2% | 20.3% | 26.5% |
| Shrewsbury | Wigan | 39.70% | 27.40% | 32.90% |
| Stevenage | Blackpool | 41.60% | 24.40% | 34.00% |
| Wrexham | Bristol Rovers | 55.2% | 22.4% | 22.4% |
England League 1 table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.
BETSiE England League 1 Projections: Finish Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 Finish | Playoffs | Top 6 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wrexham | 0.0% | 53.9% | 46.1% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wycombe | 0.0% | 36.3% | 63.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stockport County | 0.0% | 5.9% | 94.1% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlton | 0.0% | 3.9% | 96.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reading | 0.0% | 0.0% | 58.0% | 58.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bolton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.9% | 17.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leyton Orient | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Huddersfield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blackpool | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 99.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Barnsley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 85.4% | 14.6% | 0.0% |
| Rotherham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 45.7% | 54.3% | 0.0% |
| Lincoln | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 42.6% | 57.4% | 0.0% |
| Stevenage | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.4% | 81.6% | 0.0% |
| Exeter | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 94.6% | 0.0% |
| Peterborough | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 98.4% | 0.0% |
| Mansfield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 99.2% | 0.0% |
| Wigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 99.0% | 1.1% |
| Northampton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 1.3% |
| Burton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 33.5%% |
| Bristol Rovers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 64.3% |
| Crawley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 99.1% |
| Cambridge Utd | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 99.6% |
| Shrewsbury | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE England League 1 projections takes into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE England League 1 projections takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the League One fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the League One season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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