Football 
Horse Racing BETSiE England League 1 Projections: The Hunt For Automatics
We’ve decided to unveil BETSiE and her England League 1 projections and table prediction here at bettingexpert in a bid to assist our readers throughout the 2024/25 season. Will Wrexham and Stockport make it successive promotions? Can Birmingham bounce back at the first time of asking?
And what is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.
The Latest BETSiE England League 1 Projections
This weekend’s English League 1 fixtures promise plenty of action and potential shifts in the standings. Blackpool is strongly fancied to defeat Bristol Rovers with a 55.6% chance of victory, backed by their potent attack. Bolton looks to capitalise against Stevenage, holding a 50.7% probability of securing a home win.
Cambridge United faces a challenging fixture against Birmingham, who is favoured with a 62.1% likelihood of success. Charlton is well-positioned to overcome Burton at home, boasting a 60.4% chance of claiming the points.
Huddersfield’s matchup against Leyton Orient sees the out-of-form Terriers holding a 55.2% probability of victory. Lincoln’s clash with Wrexham should be closely contested, with the hosts possessing a slight edge at 41.5%.
Mansfield and Northampton both hold almost even chances against their opponents, Exeter and Wigan, respectively, indicating tightly contested matches. Reading versus Barnsley promises to be thrilling, with Reading slightly fancied at 40.3%. Meanwhile, Rotherham has a 47.9% chance to come out on top against Peterborough.
Finally, Shrewsbury faces Crawley in an almost balanced fixture, while Wycombe has a slight edge against Stockport County.
BETSiE’s England League 1 Table Prediction
| # | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 46 | 33.2 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 83.5 | 31.8 | 51.7 | 108.9 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 46 | 26.3 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 66.2 | 35.3 | 30.8 | 90.2 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 46 | 24.4 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 70.4 | 43.2 | 27.2 | 85.5 |
| 4 | Stockport County | 46 | 24.3 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 70.2 | 42.4 | 27.8 | 85.2 |
| 5 | Charlton | 46 | 24.6 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 66.0 | 43.0 | 23.0 | 84.0 |
| 6 | Reading | 46 | 21.4 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 67.8 | 54.8 | 13.0 | 76.4 |
| 7 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 23.2 | 6.2 | 16.6 | 69.2 | 48.9 | 20.3 | 75.9 |
| 8 | Bolton | 46 | 20.5 | 7.2 | 18.3 | 67.5 | 70.0 | -2.5 | 68.8 |
| 9 | Blackpool | 46 | 16.8 | 16.4 | 12.8 | 71.1 | 60.0 | 11.1 | 66.8 |
| 10 | Huddersfield | 46 | 19.6 | 7.2 | 19.2 | 58.9 | 52.2 | 6.7 | 65.9 |
| 11 | Lincoln | 46 | 16.4 | 13.3 | 16.3 | 65.3 | 55.2 | 10.2 | 62.5 |
| 12 | Barnsley | 46 | 16.4 | 10.2 | 19.4 | 66.8 | 72.8 | -6.0 | 59.4 |
| 13 | Rotherham | 46 | 15.5 | 11.2 | 19.3 | 53.9 | 59.5 | -5.6 | 57.6 |
| 14 | Exeter | 46 | 15.3 | 11.2 | 19.5 | 50.1 | 63.6 | -13.5 | 57.0 |
| 15 | Stevenage | 46 | 15.3 | 11.2 | 19.5 | 42.0 | 50.5 | -8.5 | 57.0 |
| 16 | Wigan | 46 | 13.6 | 15.5 | 16.9 | 40.1 | 42.8 | -2.8 | 56.2 |
| 17 | Peterborough | 46 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 19.9 | 67.9 | 78.6 | -10.7 | 53.4 |
| 18 | Northampton | 46 | 12.5 | 14.2 | 19.3 | 48.5 | 66.0 | -17.5 | 51.7 |
| 19 | Mansfield | 46 | 13.9 | 9.5 | 22.6 | 56.3 | 73.5 | -17.2 | 51.3 |
| 20 | Burton | 46 | 11.6 | 13.5 | 20.9 | 49.3 | 65.0 | -15.7 | 48.3 |
| 21 | Crawley | 46 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 24.4 | 56.4 | 83.4 | -27 | 44.4 |
| 22 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 26.6 | 44.3 | 74.1 | -29.8 | 43.9 |
| 23 | Cambridge Utd | 46 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 25.6 | 44.7 | 72.8 | -28 | 38.7 |
| 24 | Shrewsbury | 46 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 28.4 | 41.4 | 78.4 | -37 | 34.4 |
The Quest For Automatics and The Scrap For L1 Survival Is Still Alive
Birmingham coast to a League 1 crown. Wrexham adds another promotion to their Hollywood story. The chasing pack sees Wycombe unable to land a spot in the top two, whilst Steven Schumacher’s Bolton, Nathan Jones’ Charlton, and Dave Challinor’s Stockport County face playoff football in League 1.
The nine Huddersfield defeats up to April 53.6 in this calendar year are deemed fatal by BETSiE. Their top six hopes vacate out of the back door, along with recently departed Michael Duff. Reading FC, despite the circus behind the scenes at the football club, manoeuvre their way into playoff contention, ahead of the Terriers, Bolton, and cruelly, Leyton Orient.
Blackpool, Barnsley and Lincoln make up the top half. Of the remaining top-half fodder, the standout for the top six in the ante-post betting was the Seasiders, who had previously missed out on the playoffs by three points in 2023/24 and commanded a 3.25 price to finish the season in the top six places. After two back-to-back defeats for Neil Critchley’s Blackpool to begin the campaign in August, he was shown the door by Simon Sadler.
Rotherham, in 14th, have endured an abysmal season by their standards. Relegated from the Championship last season, Steve Evans’ task was overseeing a swift return to the second tier. The South Yorkshire club were just 4.00 to be promoted in 2024/25 in the ante-post betting. There will have been many punters who chanced their arm at 12.00 to win League 1, with the noise and incomings coming out of the club in the summer, mainly from Steve Evans.
Further Down the Table…
Further down the table, just below Peterborough’s (17th) disappointing season, Ryan Lowe’s Wigan are projected an 15th-placed finish, seeing his new-ish side leapfrog Northampton after a decent end to the season.
Bristol Rovers, who were 4.33 to be relegated before a ball was kicked in the summer, are the most unfortunate club in the third tier this campaign. BETSiE predicts the Gas won’t pick up enough points in the final five games following Burton Albion’s change in form and fortunes..
Shrewsbury, now without Gareth Ainsworth in the dugout, continue to scrap for their lives at the foot of the table, accumulating seven points across the run-in. Ultimately, it’s not enough, considering Cambridge, Crawley, and Burton, in that order, also pick up enough points to stay away from the foot of the table.
Crawley were 4.50 favourites to finish bottom this campaign under the guidance of club owners WAGMI. The club was stripped of assets, with star players sold once again, but despite that, they’ve proven throughout the campaign that they’re not the worst club in League 1. That, according to the numbers and BETSiE, is Shrewsbury Town.
Projected England League 1 Matchday 46 Goal Totals: May 2nd
| HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool | Bristol Rovers | 2.06 | 1.30 | 0.76 | 3.37 |
| Bolton | Stevenage | 1.54 | 1.00 | 0.55 | 2.54 |
| Cambridge Utd | Birmingham | 0.75 | 1.76 | -1.01 | 2.51 |
| Charlton | Burton | 1.96 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 2.95 |
| Huddersfield | Leyton Orient | 1.91 | 1.18 | 0.74 | 3.09 |
| Lincoln | Wrexham | 1.34 | 1.16 | 0.18 | 2.51 |
| Mansfield | Exeter | 1.61 | 1.10 | 0.51 | 2.72 |
| Northampton | Wigan | 1.50 | 0.99 | 0.51 | 2.49 |
| Reading | Barnsley | 1.79 | 1.76 | 0.03 | 3.55 |
| Rotherham | Peterborough | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 3.4 |
| Shrewsbury | Crawley | 1.38 | 1.39 | -0.01 | 2.76 |
| Wycombe | Stockport County | 1.37 | 1.18 | 0.19 | 2.55 |
BETSiE England League 1 Goal Total abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.
Does BETSiE cover any other leagues in the EFL? Yes, Click the graphics below!
The Championship isn’t the only league BETSiE dares to navigate from the The English Football League. Although notoriously hard to bet on, BETSiE runs simulations for every single game on all 46 matchdays of both the Championship and League 2 below:
Championship:
League Two:
England League 1 Matchday 46 Projections: May 2nd
| Home | Away | Home % | Draw % | Away % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool | Bristol Rovers | 55.60% | 19.8% | 24.6% |
| Bolton | Stevenage | 50.7% | 24.2% | 25.1% |
| Cambridge Utd | Birmingham | 16.0% | 21.8% | 62.1% |
| Charlton | Burton | 60.4% | 20.3% | 19.3% |
| Huddersfield | Leyton Orient | 55.20% | 20.90% | 23.90% |
| Lincoln | Wrexham | 41.50% | 25.4% | 33.1% |
| Mansfield | Exeter | 49.8% | 23.4% | 26.8% |
| Northampton | Wigan | 49.7% | 24.6% | 25.6% |
| Reading | Barnsley | 40.3% | 20.6% | 39.1% |
| Rotherham | Peterborough | 47.90% | 20.70% | 31.40% |
| Shrewsbury | Crawley | 37.70% | 24.00% | 38.30% |
| Wycombe | Stockport County | 41.9% | 25.1% | 33.0% |
England League 1 table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.
BETSiE England League 1 Projections: Finish Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 Finish | Playoffs | Top 6 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wrexham | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wycombe | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stockport County | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reading | 0.0% | 0.0% | 42.8% | 42.8% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leyton Orient | 0.0% | 0.0% | 57.2% | 57.2% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bolton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blackpool | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Huddersfield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lincoln | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Barnsley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 57.6% | 42.4% | 0.0% |
| Rotherham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.3% | 72.7% | 0.0% |
| Exeter | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 96.3% | 0.0% |
| Stevenage | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.9% | 95.1% | 0.0% |
| Wigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 93.7% | 0.0% |
| Peterborough | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Northampton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Mansfield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Burton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Crawley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Bristol Rovers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Cambridge Utd | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Shrewsbury | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE England League 1 projections takes into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE England League 1 projections takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the League One fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the League One season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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