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| Tuesday, July 5, 2022 12:01 PM (Revised at: Thursday, July 7, 2022 2:15 PM)
Betting On Women's Euro 2022: Data Analysis
Andrew Brocker
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A year ago I wrote of the profitability in backing the draw during the knockout stage of Euro 2021. Heading into that tournament, backing the draw in the knockout stage of men’s Euro tournaments had returned a profit of almost +20% across the five men’s Euro tournaments from 2000 to 2016. A similar trend was identified in backing the draw in the knockout stage of each men’s World Cup from 1998 to 2018.
For those willing to follow this trend, Euro 2021 proved to be a profitable one.
In fact backing the draw at single stakes through the knockout stage of Euro 2021 would have returned a profit of +13.18 units from 15 units staked. At the conclusion of Euro 2021, backing the draw at single stakes through the knockout stages of both Euros and World Cups since 1998 had delivered a return of +28.51%.
| TOURNAMENT | GAMES | DRAWS | PROFIT/LOSS | YIELD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men’s Euro Knockout Stage | 58 | 24 | +21.59 | +37.22% |
| Men’s World Cup Knockout Stage | 90 | 32 | +20.6 | +22.89% |
| Total | 148 | 56 | +42.19 | +28.51% |
With the women’s Euro set to begin this week, I set myself to see if the same trend could be identified through previous tournaments. I also took a look a range of categories including the profitability of backing defending champions, hosts, the profitability of competing nations through previous tournaments as well as Euro 2022 qualification and lastly, a breakdown of team scoring stats historically as well as through qualificaiton.
For this analysis I have collected betting data from the following women’s international football tournaments:
- Euro 2009
- World Cup 2011
- Euro 2013
- World Cup 2015
- Euro 2017
- World Cup 2019
Returns are based on average 1X2 odds adjusted to a margin of 4.5%.
In this article:
- Backing the Draw
- Backing Defending Champions
- Backing Host Nations
- Competing Nations Profitability
- Tournament and Nation Scoring Stats 2009-2019
Backing The Draw
Looking at the previous three Euro tournaments, we can see that backing the draw through the knockout stage has proven to be profitable.
| TOURNAMENT | GAMES | DRAWS | PROFIT/LOSS | YIELD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women’s Euro Knockout Stage | 21 | 6 | +0.769 | +3.66% |
Backing the draw through the 21 knockout stage matches across Euro’s 2009, 2013 and 2017 would have returned you a profit of just under 4%.
Backing the Draw through Women’s World Cups and Euros
But can we identify this trend when we look at World Cups?
The short answer is no.
In fact, backing the draw at single stakes through the knockout stage of the last three women’s World Cups would have seen you suffer a loss of over 6 units from 37 units staked, a return of -17.14%.
| TOURNAMENT | GAMES | DRAWS | PROFIT/LOSS | YIELD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women’s World Cup Knockout Stage | 37 | 8 | -6.342 | -17.14% |
I then decided to take a look at the profitability in backing the draw through the groups stages of these tournaments. Doing so, would have been disastrous with a loss of nearly 28 units from 156 units staked, a return of near -18%.
| TOURNAMENT | GAMES | DRAWS | PROFIT/LOSS | YIELD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women’s Euros Group Stage | 60 | 12 | -6.709 | -11.18% |
| Women’s World Cup Group Stage | 96 | 16 | -21.275 | -22.16% |
| Total | 156 | 28 | -27.984 | -17.94% |
In total, backing the draw at single stakes through each match of the last three Euros and World Cups would have seen you suffer a loss of approaching 34 units from 214 units stakes, a return on investment of -15.68%.
| TOURNAMENT | GAMES | DRAWS | PROFIT/LOSS | YIELD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women’s Euros | 81 | 18 | -5.94 | -7.33% |
| Women’s World Cup | 133 | 24 | -27.617 | -20.76% |
| Total | 214 | 42 | -33.557 | -15.68% |
Backing Either Team To Win through Women’s World Cups and Euros
Given the losses suffered through backing the draw, I decided to take a look at the potential profitability in backing either team to win in the double chance market.
| TOURNAMENT | GAMES | NO DRAW | PROFIT/LOSS | YIELD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women’s Euros | 81 | 63 | -2.57 | -3.17% |
| Women’s World Cup | 133 | 109 | -1.06 | -0.80% |
| Total | 214 | 172 | -3.63 | -1.70% |
While backing either team to win through each match did not return a profit, we can see that the returns are above the bookmaker margin, with backing either team to win in each World Cup match the last three tournaments returning a near profit at a margin of 4.5%. Taking best odds available would likely have returned a profit.
So while it’s certainly possible that due to such small sample size such returns are the result variance, it’s worth keeping in mind that women’s tournaments have not seen a trend similar to that identified through the knockout stages of recent men’s Euros and World Cups.
Backing Defending Champions
A year ago I also wrote of the profitability in backing against defending men’s Euro and World Cup champions. Betting on the opposing team against such champions through the previous five Euro tournaments earned a return of +9.44 units at single stakes from 20 units staked.
Betting against defending European champions Portugal at Euro 2021 would have seen you return a profit of +0.68 units from 4 units staked.
A similar trend was identified in betting on the opposing team in matches against defending World Cup champions. Doing so would have seen you claim a profit of +50.23 units from 25 units staked in the previous six World Cup tournaments.
So given this trend I took a look at defending champions in recent women’s tournaments.
| WOMEN’S EURO CHAMPIONS | GAMES | PROFIT/LOSS | YIELD % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany 2009 | 6 | +1.92 | +31.92% |
| Germany 2013 | 6 | +1.00 | +16.68% |
| Germany 2017 | 4 | -1.74 | -43.53% |
| Total | 16 | +1.17 | +7.34% |
Rather than returning a loss, we can see that backing the defending women’s European champions has been profitable. If you had backed Germany as defending European champions in 2009, 2013 and 2017 at single stakes, you would have claimed a profit of +1.17 units from 16 units staked.
But what about defending women’s World Cup champions?
| WOMEN’S WORLD CUP CHAMPIONS | GAMES | PROFIT/LOSS | YIELD % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany 2011 | 4 | -0.28 | -6.90% |
| Japan 2015 | 7 | +2.83 | +40.45% |
| USA 2019 | 7 | +3.76 | +53.67% |
| Total | 18 | +6.31 | +35.07% |
As we saw with defending European champions, we can see that backing defending World Cup champions in the following World Cup tournament has been profitable. Backing defending champions Germany in 2011, Japan in 2015 and USA in 2019 would have returned a profit of 6.31 units from 18 units staked.
Defending champions Netherlands enter this tournament at odds of 7.00, ranked behind Spain, England and France. They will face Portugal, Switzerland and Sweden in their group, opening their tournament on July 9th as very slight favourites against Sweden.
Backing Host Nations
I next took a look at the performance of host nations in recent women’s Euros and World Cups.
| EURO HOSTS | GAMES | PROFIT/LOSS | YIELD % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finland 2009 | 4 | +1.89 | +47.19% |
| Sweden 2013 | 5 | -1.21 | -24.15% |
| Netherlands 2017 | 6 | +7.16 | +119.27% |
| Total | 15 | +7.84 | +52.24% |
Above we can see that backing the host nation in the last three Euros has returned a profit, with eventual champions Netherlands doing the bulk of the work with their performance in 2017. Backing host nations in each of their matches returned a profit of +7.84 units from 15 units staked.
Backing hosts in women’s World Cups however did not yield the same results, with each of the last three World Cup hosts failing to return a profit at single stakes for a total loss of -1.24 units from 14 units staked.
| HOSTS | GAMES | PROFIT/LOSS | YIELD % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany 2011 | 4 | -0.28 | -6.90% |
| Canada 2015 | 5 | -1.59 | -31.72% |
| France 2019 | 5 | -1.24 | -24.80% |
| Total | 14 | -3.10 | -22.16% |
Competing Nations Profitability
How have individual nations performed against bookmaker expectations through the last three women’s Euros and World Cups?
Competing Nations Win Profitability
| NATION | GAMES | WINS | DRAWS | LOSSES | PROFIT/LOSS | YIELD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | +11.75 | +73.42% |
| Netherlands | 25 | 14 | 5 | 6 | +8.27 | +33.08% |
| Belgium | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3.81 | +127.13% |
| England | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | +2.99 | +9.97% |
| Norway | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | +1.32 | +5.07% |
| Sweden | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | +0.77 | +2.73% |
| Austria | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +0.76 | +15.11% |
| Portugal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +0.64 | +21.27% |
| Denmark | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1.01 | -7.19% |
| Finland | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1.11 | -15.89% |
| Germany | 31 | 22 | 5 | 4 | -1.19 | -3.83% |
| Switzerland | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3.58 | -51.19% |
| Iceland | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -4.64 | -46.37% |
| France | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | -7.48 | -27.71% |
| Spain | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -9.54 | -63.61% |
Above we can see that Italy has returned the greatest profit of teams competing at Euro 2022 through the last six major tournaments. If you had backed the Italians at single stakes through each of their Euro and World Cup tournaments since 2007, you would have earned a profit of nearly +12 units from 16 units staked. Upsets victories over England (2-1, Euro 2009) and Sweden (3-2, Euro 2017) do much of the heavy lifting for the Italians generous returns.
Competing Nations Opponent Win Profitability
Which teams have been the best to bet against?
| NATION | GAMES | WINS | DRAWS | LOSSES | PROFIT/LOSS | YIELD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | +14.30 | +95.35% |
| Switzerland | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +6.13 | +87.53% |
| Italy | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | +5.19 | +32.42% |
| France | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | +4.60 | +17.05% |
| Iceland | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | +2.54 | +25.41% |
| Denmark | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | +2.10 | +15.00% |
| Finland | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +0.92 | +13.17% |
| Norway | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | +0.60 | +2.30% |
| Belgium | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +0.40 | +13.43% |
| Portugal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -0.57 | -19.09% |
| Sweden | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | -2.72 | -9.70% |
| Austria | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -5.00 | -100.00% |
| Germany | 31 | 22 | 5 | 4 | -7.37 | -23.79% |
| Netherlands | 25 | 14 | 5 | 6 | -7.95 | -31.82% |
| England | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | -8.62 | -28.74% |
Above we can see that betting against Spain has been the best move through the last three women’s Euros and World Cups. Betting on Spanish opposition through each of these tournaments would have returned you a profit of +14.3 units at single stakes from 15 units staked. Spain’s upset loss to Scotland (1-0, Euro 2017) does the bulk of the work here. Spain of course head into this tournament as favourites, currently at odds of 4.50 to be crowned European champions.
Euro 2022 Qualification Win Profitability
Before we leave the topic of profitability, let’s take a quick look at each competing team’s profitability through qualification for Euro 2022.
| NATION | GAMES | WINS | DRAWS | LOSSES | PROFIT/LOSS | YIELD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Ireland | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7.55 | +75.53% |
| Finland | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +7.44 | +93.04% |
| Portugal | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +2.13 | +21.29% |
| Belgium | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +1.08 | +13.48% |
| Netherlands | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | +0.80 | +8.05% |
| Denmark | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | +0.71 | +7.07% |
| Norway | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +0.61 | +10.25% |
| Germany | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +0.34 | +4.25% |
| Spain | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -0.23 | -2.82% |
| Sweden | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -0.28 | -3.49% |
| France | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -0.53 | -6.67% |
| Switzerland | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | -0.56 | -5.57% |
| Austria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -0.88 | -10.97% |
| Iceland | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -1.08 | -13.48% |
| Italy | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | -1.54 | -15.37% |
The two surprises of qualification were Northern Ireland and Finland with each returning a profit exceeding 7 units through qualification. Each nation begins the tournament as long shots, Finland currently odds 201.0 and Northern Ireland odds 251.0 to win Euro 2022.
Women’s Euro and World Cup Scoring Stats 2009-2019
Before we conclude, let’s take a look at some basic scoring stats. The numbers below cover the last three women’s Euro and World Cup tournaments.
Firstly below are the goal averages and occurrence rates for Euro and World Cup matches through both group and knockout stages.
| Stage | Tournament | Matches | Ave Goals | Over 0.5 | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | Over 3.5 | BTTS -Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Euros | 60 | 2.37 | 95.00% | 70.00% | 41.67% | 16.67% | 45.00% |
| Group | World Cup | 96 | 2.84 | 94.79% | 69.79% | 52.08% | 28.13% | 40.63% |
| Group Total | 156 | 2.66 | 94.87% | 69.87% | 48.08% | 23.72% | 42.31% | |
| Knockout | Euros | 21 | 2.67 | 85.71% | 66.67% | 47.62% | 33.33% | 52.38% |
| Knockout | World Cup | 37 | 2.46 | 94.59% | 78.38% | 48.65% | 13.51% | 54.05% |
| Knockout Total | 58 | 2.53 | 91.38% | 74.14% | 48.28% | 20.69% | 53.45% | |
| Total | 214 | 2.63 | 93.93% | 71.03% | 48.13% | 22.90% | 45.33% |
Competing Nations Euro and World Cup Scoring Stats 2009-2019
Below we can see tournament scoring stats for each nation competing at Euro 2022 through the last three Euro and World Cup tournaments.
| Nation | Matches | Ave For | Ave Agnst | Ave Total | Over 0.5 | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | Over 3.5 | BTTS – YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 5 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 1.20 | 60.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% | 0.00% | 20.00% |
| Belgium | 3 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 100.00% | 66.67% | 33.33% | 0.00% | 33.33% |
| Denmark | 14 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 2.14 | 92.86% | 64.29% | 35.71% | 7.14% | 64.29% |
| England | 30 | 1.73 | 1.27 | 3.00 | 100.00% | 90.00% | 63.33% | 16.67% | 63.33% |
| Finland | 7 | 0.86 | 1.57 | 2.43 | 85.71% | 57.14% | 42.86% | 28.57% | 42.86% |
| France | 27 | 1.63 | 1.00 | 2.63 | 96.30% | 74.07% | 44.44% | 29.63% | 51.85% |
| Germany | 31 | 2.23 | 0.61 | 2.84 | 90.32% | 64.52% | 51.61% | 29.03% | 38.71% |
| Iceland | 10 | 0.40 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 100.00% | 60.00% | 50.00% | 20.00% | 30.00% |
| Italy | 16 | 1.38 | 1.25 | 2.63 | 93.75% | 81.25% | 56.25% | 18.75% | 50.00% |
| Netherlands | 25 | 1.28 | 0.72 | 2.00 | 88.00% | 60.00% | 36.00% | 8.00% | 40.00% |
| Northern Ireland | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Norway | 26 | 1.19 | 1.27 | 2.46 | 100.00% | 73.08% | 50.00% | 23.08% | 50.00% |
| Portugal | 3 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 2.67 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 66.67% | 0.00% | 66.67% |
| Spain | 15 | 0.87 | 1.20 | 2.07 | 86.67% | 60.00% | 33.33% | 20.00% | 46.67% |
| Sweden | 28 | 1.68 | 1.04 | 2.71 | 89.29% | 75.00% | 46.43% | 35.71% | 46.43% |
| Switzerland | 7 | 2.00 | 1.14 | 3.14 | 100.00% | 57.14% | 42.86% | 14.29% | 57.14% |
Euro 2022 Qualification Scoring Stats
Finally, listed below are the scoring stats for each nation competing at Euro 2022 through their qualification for this tournament.
| Nation | Matches | Ave For | Ave Agnst | Ave Total | Over 0.5 | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | Over 3.5 | BTTS – YEs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 8 | 2.75 | 0.38 | 3.13 | 87.50% | 62.50% | 62.50% | 25.00% | 0.00% |
| Belgium | 8 | 4.63 | 0.63 | 5.25 | 100.00% | 87.50% | 87.50% | 75.00% | 50.00% |
| Denmark | 10 | 4.80 | 0.10 | 4.90 | 90.00% | 90.00% | 70.00% | 60.00% | 10.00% |
| England | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Finland | 8 | 3.00 | 0.25 | 3.25 | 100.00% | 62.50% | 50.00% | 37.50% | 25.00% |
| France | 8 | 5.50 | 0.00 | 5.50 | 87.50% | 87.50% | 75.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% |
| Germany | 8 | 5.75 | 0.13 | 5.88 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 75.00% | 12.50% |
| Iceland | 8 | 3.13 | 0.63 | 3.75 | 100.00% | 75.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 37.50% |
| Italy | 10 | 3.70 | 0.50 | 4.20 | 90.00% | 80.00% | 60.00% | 60.00% | 20.00% |
| Netherlands | 10 | 4.80 | 0.30 | 5.10 | 100.00% | 90.00% | 80.00% | 70.00% | 20.00% |
| Northern Ireland | 10 | 2.10 | 1.80 | 3.90 | 90.00% | 80.00% | 70.00% | 60.00% | 40.00% |
| Norway | 6 | 5.67 | 0.17 | 5.83 | 100.00% | 66.67% | 66.67% | 66.67% | 16.67% |
| Portugal | 10 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 1.30 | 90.00% | 30.00% | 10.00% | 0.00% | 10.00% |
| Spain | 8 | 6.00 | 0.13 | 6.13 | 87.50% | 87.50% | 87.50% | 75.00% | 12.50% |
| Sweden | 8 | 5.00 | 0.25 | 5.25 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 75.00% | 75.00% | 25.00% |
| Switzerland | 10 | 2.30 | 0.80 | 3.10 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 60.00% | 30.00% | 40.00% |
Conclusions and Considerations
As already stated, the sample size is far too small to determine a genuine bias within these markets. While I do not recommend following any trends blindly, I do suggest taking the following into consideration when betting on the women’s Euro of 2022:
- Consider backing either team to win in the Double Chance market through the group stage
- Consider backing defending champions Netherlands in each match
- Consider backing against favourites Spain in each match
- Consider backing Northern Ireland and Finland on Asian handicap markets in each match
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