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Analysis | Monday, September 18, 2023 1:35 PM (Revised at: Monday, October 2, 2023 12:35 PM)

NBA 2023/24 Winner Odds: Bucks Overtake Nuggets After Lillard Trade

NBA 2023/24 Winner Odds: Bucks Overtake Nuggets After Lillard Trade
CREDIT: IMAGO / ZUMA Wire Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo drives the ball while under pressure from Miami Heat

The 2023/24 NBA regular season starts on October 24th and the opening game will feature the Denver Nuggets taking on the Los Angeles Lakers. Our basketball community has already started dishing out free tips for the first few games if you are interested, pay us a visit.

However, we are here to have a look at the latest 2023/24 NBA Winner odds and our expert Milan Stanojic gives us his insights into the most likely candidates. Will the Denver Nuggets repeat? Will the Boston Celtics Celtics win their first NBA championship since 07/08? Will the Bucks bounce back? Can the Suns finally win their first ring? Here’s what the bookmakers have to say.

For more daily expert opinions & predictions, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

NBA 2023/24 Championship Winner Odds

NBA 2023/24 Winner Odds
Team Odds Implied Probability %
Denver Nuggets 5.50 18.2
Boston Celtics 6.00 16.7
Milwaukee Bucks 4.50 22.2
Phoenix Suns 7.00 14.3
Miami Heat 21.00 4.8
Golden State Warriors 13.00 7.7
Los Angeles Lakers 13.00 7.7
Philadelphia 76ers 23.00 4.2
Los Angeles Clippers 17.00 5.9
Dallas Mavericks 19.00 5.3
Memphis Grizzlies 26.00 3.8
Cleveland Cavaliers 29.00 3.4
New Orleans Pelicans 41.00 2.4
Sacramento Kings 41.00 2.4
New York Knicks 51.00 2
Atlanta Hawks 71.00 1.4
Minnesota Timberwolves 71.00 1.4
Toronto Raptors 51.00 1.2
OKC Thunder 101.00 1
Brooklyn Nets 101.00 1
Chicago Bulls 126.00 0.8
Portland Trail Blazers 251.00 0.4
San Antonio Spurs 151.00 0.8
Houston Rockets 201.00 0.7
Indiana Pacers 201.00 0.5
Utah Jazz 251.00 0.4
Washington Wizards 301.00 0.3
Orlando Magic 301.00 0.3
Detroit Pistons 301.00 0.3
Charlotte Hornets 301.00 0.3

Odds available as of September 28th 2023. Odds may now differ.

UPDATE: September 28th – Bucks Trade for Lillard, Now Favourites to go All the Way

After several months of drama, going back & forth, and speculating on potential destinations Damian Lillard has finally been traded! It’s not to the Miami Heat, but to the Milwaukee Bucks to play alongside 2-time MVP and NBA champion Giannis Antetokounmpo! The Trade looks as follows:

Portland Trail Blazers get:

  • Jrue Holiday
  • Deandre Ayton
  • Toumani Camara
  • Bucks’ 2029 first-round pick (unprotected)
  • Swap rights on Bucks’ 2028 and 2030 picks

Phoenix Suns get:

  • Jusuf Nurkic
  • Grayson Allen
  • Nassir Little
  • Keon Johnson

Milwaukee Bucks get:

  • Damian Lillard

All of a sudden, the Bucks’ NBA Winner odds have shortened from 7.00 to 4.50 and they are favoured ahead of the Nuggets to win the 2023/24 NBA Championship. How has this impacted the rest of the teams involved in the trade?

The Phoenix Suns’ NBA Winner odds have shortened from 7.50 to 7.00 while the Trail Blazers have gone from 126.00 to 251.00. This has also had an impact on the rest of the league as the Celtics’ have gone from 5.75 to 6.00 and the Suns have shortened from 7.50 to 7.00. The Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers’ NBA Winner odds have gone up significantly, with the Heat going from 11.00 to 21.00 and Philly from 16.00 to 23.00.

No other major changes so far in the NBA Winner odds table but stay tuned as the season starts!

Odds available as of September 28th 2023. Odds may now differ.

The Favourites: Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns

The defending NBA champions the Denver Nuggets are coming into the 2023/24 NBA season as favourites to repeat with their NBA Winner Odds set at 5.50. Their star centre Nikola Jokic is also favoured to win the MVP award according to the early NBA MVP Winner Odds but let’s see what the Denver Nuggets are facing this year.

Following an unsuccessful finals appearance 2 years ago, Celtics fans suffered another heartbreak last season in the Eastern Conference finals against the Miami Heat. With another year to regroup and recover, their NBA Winner Odds are set at 5.75 for the coming season.

The biggest news for the Boston Celtics this offseason has been the acquisition of Kristaps Porzingis via trade. They lost Marcus Smart, but they are hoping that his size and outside shooting will give them the edge to finally win another NBA championship.

After winning their first title shot in decades, the Milwaukee Bucks finally won NBA gold in the 2020/21 season but have fallen off significantly since. They lost in the Eastern Conference Semifinals to the Celtics the year after and in the first round against the Heat last season.

They did finish atop the Eastern Conference with a 5824 record last year but their unexpected 1-st round exit in just 5 games has left a great deal to be desired. Their 2023/24 NBA Winner odds are set to 7.00 and they are third in line to go all the way this year.

The final team in our mix of favourites are the Phoenix Suns. They came close to winning it all 2 years ago but ultimately fell short in the finals against the Bucks. They have assembled a deadly team with Booker, Durant and Beal now and the bookmakers have set their 2023/24 NBA Winner Odds to 7.50.

Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (6) is defended by Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30)

The Contenders: Familiar Faces Join the Hunt

It’s not often that a finalist from the previous season doesn’t make it to the top 4 in the NBA Winner Odds list, but the Miami Heat are one of those few teams. In fact, they have made the playoffs in 2 of the last 4 seasons.

Whilst they don’t exactly have a team on paper that looks like championship material, they are a resilient squad and they have a great coach in Eric Spoelstra. They are the 5th candidate to win the NBA championship this season with their odds being set at 11.00.

It was a tough 2022/23 season for the Warriors, finishing 6th in the Western Conference standings with a 44-38 record and making a 2nd-round exit from the playoffs. With the team now a year older, it’s hard to predict how they will fare in the coming season, but the bookmakers don’t believe they can make it happen. The Warriors are 5th in line according to the NBA 2023/34 Winner Odds at 13.00.

The Los Angeles Lakers won the NBA Championship back in 2019/20 but have been unable to repeat their success. They reassembled their team almost completely at midseason last year but were swept by the Nuggets in the Western Conference finals. Their NBA Winner Odds for the coming season are set at 13.00.

The next three teams on our list are the Philadelphia 76ers, LA Clippers and Dallas Mavericks. All 3 teams have had very disappointing seasons last year and their NBA 2023/24 Winner odds are set at 16.00, 17.00 and 19.00 respectively.

The Outside Chances: Young Bloods Ready to Surprise?

It would be surprising to see any of the next names on the lsit lift the NBA Championship this season but we have to take them into consideration nonetheless. These are mostly young teams with a lot of talent but not enough experience to contend for the title just yet.

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of those teams with their NBA Winner Odds set at 26.00. They finished 2nd in the Western Conference last season but were quickly dispatched by the LA Lakers in the first round. The Grizzlies acquired Marcus Smart and Derrick Rose this offseason, but to say they are real championship contenders now would be a reach.

The Cleveland Cavaliers assembled a mighty backcourt last season with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland but were unable to get past the first round of the playoffs. They haven’t made any significant moves this offseason and their NBA 2023/24 Winner odds of 29.00 are looking generous.

Next on the list we have a Western Conference team that failed to make the playoffs last season – the New Orleans Pelicans. They do have a solid dupe of CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram but their NBA Winner odds are set at 41.00. The Pelicans don’t really have a championship team but they do have what it takes to do well during the regular season.

The Sacramento Kings were one of the biggest playoff disappointments of the year last season. After finishing 3rd in the Western Conference they finally made the playoffs after almost 2 decades but were dispatched by the GS Warriors in the first round despite gaining an early 2-0 lead in the series. The Sacramento Kings are quite exciting but they are still a long way from lifting the NBA Championship. Their NBA Winner Odds are at 41.00.

Another disappointing playoff team last year were the New York Knicks. They finished 5th in the east and most expected a deep playoff run out of them but they lost in the second round to the Munderdog Miami Heat squad. Their 2023/24 NBA Winner Odds are also at 41.00.


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