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Analysis | Friday, June 14, 2024 8:44 AM (Revised at: Friday, June 14, 2024 9:28 AM)

# Copa America 2024 Team and Table Projections - BETSiE Predicts

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Copa America 2024 is upon us, and bettingexpertâ€™s own predictive model, BETSiE, has projections for each nation competing at this yearâ€™s tournament. Using various data points, BETSiEâ€™s Copa America 2024 match, tournament, and team projections will analyze every sideâ€™s chances in the tournament.

BETSiE projects the entire Copa America 2024 tournament, taking into account the results of tournament qualification and previous international tournaments.

BETSiE considers the following match data:

• Goals For / Against
• Shots For / Against
• Shots on Target For / Against

However, not all goals, shots, or shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot, and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the detailed match data, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then given an average expected goals for and against.

With these expected goals established, BETSiE integrates them into the Copa America 2024 schedule, predicting scores for each upcoming game and estimating the probability of each nation winning, drawing, or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team for each upcoming match. BETSiE combines these expected results with the outcomes of matches already played and simulates the rest of the tournament 500,000 times to determine the probability of each team advancing from their group, winning their group, reaching the final, and ultimately winning the tournament.

## Copa America 2024 Group Projections

Below are the BETSiE Copa America 2024 group projections.

Last updated 12th June 2024.

Group A

Group Nation G W D L GF GA GD Pts Win Group Qualify
A Argentina 3 1.89 0.68 0.43 5.28 2.09 3.20 6.34 64.53% 86.58%
A Chile 3 0.94 0.80 1.26 3.16 3.84 -0.68 3.62 13.73% 42.84%
A Canada 3 0.89 0.77 1.34 3.19 4.20 -1.01 3.43 12.15% 38.40%
A Peru 3 0.78 0.76 1.46 2.95 4.46 -1.50 3.10 9.58% 32.17%

Group B

Group Nation G W D L GF GA GD Pts Win Group Qualify
B Mexico 3 1.58 0.72 0.70 4.91 2.93 1.99 5.46 42.71% 75.10%
B Ecuador 3 1.56 0.73 0.70 4.76 2.86 1.90 5.43 41.20% 74.52%
B Venezuela 3 0.80 0.76 1.44 3.03 4.44 -1.42 3.16 10.14% 30.46%
B Jamaica 3 0.59 0.71 1.70 2.59 5.06 -2.47 2.49 5.95% 19.93%

Group C

Group Nation G W D L GF GA GD Pts Win Group Qualify
C Uruguay 3 1.91 0.63 0.46 5.97 2.30 3.67 6.35 55.57% 87.41%
C USA 3 1.62 0.69 0.69 5.14 2.78 2.36 5.56 35.79% 78.22%
C Panama 3 0.73 0.65 1.62 3.31 5.31 -2.00 2.84 5.84% 22.33%
C Bolivia 3 0.50 0.51 1.99 3.15 7.19 -4.04 2.01 2.80% 12.05%

Group D

Group Nation G W D L GF GA GD Pts Win Group Qualify
D Brazil 3 2.04 0.57 0.39 6.42 2.30 4.12 6.69 66.86% 90.39%
D Colombia 3 1.36 0.74 0.90 4.23 3.23 1.00 4.83 23.77% 67.33%
D Costa Rica 3 0.65 0.67 1.68 2.83 5.34 -2.51 2.63 4.88% 21.96%
D Paraguay 3 0.62 0.68 1.71 2.67 5.28 -2.62 2.52 4.49% 20.32%

## Copa America 2024 Team Projections

Below is a list of every team competing at Copa America 2024 with their projected likelihood of finishing in each position.

Last updated 12th June 2024

Rank Nation Win Group Qtr Finals Semi Finals Reach Final Runner Up Win Copa
1 Argentina 64.53% 86.59% 71.60% 57.81% 22.18% 35.63%
2 Brazil 66.86% 90.39% 69.90% 51.44% 19.44% 32.00%
3 Uruguay 55.57% 87.41% 44.97% 20.94% 11.32% 9.62%
4 Colombia 23.77% 67.33% 37.94% 14.41% 8.11% 6.30%
5 USA 35.79% 78.22% 30.20% 10.45% 6.40% 4.06%
6 Mexico 42.71% 75.10% 31.75% 12.21% 8.53% 3.68%
7 Ecuador 41.20% 74.52% 31.25% 11.68% 8.19% 3.49%
8 Chile 13.73% 42.84% 22.47% 7.20% 5.13% 2.06%
9 Canada 12.15% 38.40% 19.62% 5.72% 4.24% 1.49%
10 Peru 9.58% 32.17% 15.07% 4.00% 3.02% 0.97%
11 Costa Rica 4.88% 21.96% 6.90% 1.22% 0.96% 0.26%
12 Paraguay 4.49% 20.32% 6.10% 1.07% 0.86% 0.21%
13 Venezuela 10.14% 30.46% 5.55% 1.02% 0.88% 0.14%
14 Panama 5.84% 22.33% 2.96% 0.39% 0.34% 0.05%
15 Jamaica 5.95% 19.93% 2.69% 0.36% 0.33% 0.03%
16 Bolivia 2.80% 12.05% 1.02% 0.08% 0.07% 0.01%

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