18+ | Wagering and T&Cs apply | Play Responsibly | Commercial content | Advertising disclosure

Decimal odds
Analysis | Tuesday, June 11, 2024 11:54 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, June 11, 2024 12:23 PM)

Copa America Golden Boot Prediction: Betting Tips Preview

Copa America Golden Boot Prediction: Betting Tips Preview
Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo: Venezuela forward Salomón Rondón (23) sits on the pitch

The 2024 Copa America is right around the corner, and our South American expert Nathan Joyes is on hand to provide us with three potential top goalscorers worth backing. 

Blink and you can miss this short tournament, which is why it’s wise to look at a nation’s potential route to the final and make sure your player has the most minutes to score. 

And while Lionel Messi has the best chance at 4.00, there’s no fun in that, is there? Instead, let me guide you through my (somewhat chunky) selections and reasoning below.

Copa America Golden Boot Prediction 1: El Loco’s Sharpshooter

Copa America 2024, June 21st – July 15th 

Before anyone rolls their eyes and clicks back to the EUROs content, (you should check that out afterwards, it’s very good), there’s plenty to like about backing the current top World Cup qualifier top goalscorer.

Uruguay are third favourites to win Copa America, and having already defeated both Argentina and Brazil during the World Cup qualifiers under Marcelo Bielsa, anyone would be foolish to write them off.

Admittedly, Darwin Nunez’s domestic campaign with Liverpool has been hit and miss. However, his relationship with Bielsa has blossomed and he’s thrived under his new coach. El Loco’s influence has been widely reported by not only the media, but Nunez himself.

He hasn’t put himself top of the World Cup qualifying goalscoring charts with goals against the lower ranked sides, either. The winner against Argentina in Buenos Aires showed how far he has come in a Uruguayan shirt.

On top of that, he scored his first international hattrick vs Mexico in a pre-warm up friendly that has certainly made this bet look extra tasty.

Improving under Bielsa

However, what makes this bet incredibly appealing is the way in which Uruguay’s fixtures unfold. La Celeste opener is against Panama before facing Bolivia, and then a potential crunch match against the US.

It’s fair to say both Panama and Bolivia are two of the weakest nations in the tournament, and Uruguay can create plenty against both as they look to secure top spot in Group C and look to avoid Brazil in the quarter-finals.

Uruguay recently beat Bolivia 3-0 in their World Cup qualifier where Nunez scored a brace. Expected to lead the line for Bielsa, we’ll likely see Nunez have plenty of opportunities to silence his critics early on in the tournament.

The beauty of facing the US in the final group stage may see Bielsa unwilling to rotate. Avoiding Brazil may be impossible further down the line, but if they can delay facing them until the semi-finals, La Celeste may need to avoid defeat against the US in order to finish in first place.

It’s therefore likely that Nunez will feature in all three group matches, which is where he has an opportunity to wrap up the golden boot before the knockout stage. Lionel Messi won the last golden boot with just four goals, and if that’s all Nunez requires this time round, I’d be confident he can challenge anyone in the competition.

  • Copa America Golden Boot Prediction 1: Darwin Nunez (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 7.00 (Each Way)
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 10/10

Copa America Golden Boot Prediction 2: Nothing Boring About Rafael Borre

Admittedly, I’m trying to think outside the box and as a result I’ve landed on Colombia’s Rafael Borre. After impressing at River Plate, Borre had a second shot at European football with both Frankfurt and Bremen but failed to consistently showcase his best ability.

A decision to return to South America saw him sign for Brazil’s Internacional, who has scored three goals in first nine appearances for the club.

Recapturing his form, Borre’s poaching ability – as well as being pretty useful from the penalty spot – makes him the ideal candidate to lead the line in the US. Adding the pace of Liverpool’s Luis Diaz and Fluminense’s Jhon Arias on either flank makes it an even more appealing option at a much bigger price.

Colombia’s opening two matches vs Paraguay and Costa Rica offer the perfect chance to put six points on the board ahead of facing Brazil in the final match. Similar to Nunez, if Borre starts strong, he’ll likely lead the line for all three fixtures.

Leading Lines

Topping the group will be very important for Colombia – and it’s not out of the question. Having already beaten Brazil in the World Cup qualifiers, the chance to avoid Uruguay in favour of a CONCACAF nation, likely to be USA, would be Colombia’s preference in the quarter-finals.

Admittedly, it’s no certainty Borre will start, but he’s fit, arrives in form and is one of the more senior attacking players in the squad. After his acrobatic finish vs USA in their pre-tournament friendly, that would only have strengthened his claim.

Colombia's Rafael Santos Borre celebrates scoring his side's opening goal

The ex-River Plate striker also has two goals to his name from six appearances in the World Cup qualifiers, and with goal difference potentially critical for first spot in Group D, Colombia will need their striker fit and firing.

  • Golden Boot Outsider Prediction 2: Rafael Borre 
  • Best Odds: 51.00 (Each Way)
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 4/10

Copa America Golden Boot Prediction 3: A Farewell Goalscoring Spree?

My outside swing at humongous odds is not very me at all when it comes to betting. Don’t worry, there’s a method to the madness.

Venezuela have been drawn against Jamaica, Mexico and Ecuador. On paper, this looks like an incredibly tough group and Venezuela will have to be at their best in order to get out of it.

However, all three nations head into the 2024 Copa America with issues. Mexico are rated as the favourites to win the group and it’s hard to see why. There’s a sizable gap in quality between CONCACAF and CONMEBOL nations and I think the market has completely missed this.

Further proof was in Mexico’s recent friendly vs Uruguay, where Bielsa only took 16 players but annihilated them 4-0. There was no game plan from Mexico, who were trying to press yet also regroup at the same time. It was a car crash of a performance, and although you could argue it was a “nothing” game, the signs were incredibly worrying.

Jamaica are the second CONCACAF nation in the group, and although their squad looks strong on paper, they are a nation who rarely pulls together these days. You only have to listen to Aston Villa’s Leon Bailey’s interview as to why he no longer represents his country. 

He admitted the organisation behind the scenes was non-existent, from not being paid to barely having the right kit in place on a matchday.

I’d be surprised if all of their off-field problems had been rectified, and they look more likely to finish bottom than challenge for a spot in the knockouts.

Rondon’s Final Tournament?

Up next: Ecuador. However, although they have been rather strong in the World Cup qualifiers losing just one of their six matches, there is a rift between head coach Felix Sanchez and the fans. Playing a pragmatic style of football, and with a striker injury crisis, a lot rests on the shoulders of 17-year-old Kendry Paez – although admittedly, he could carry La Tri all on his own.

That leaves me with Venezuela. A nation which is continuing to surprise everyone in the World Cup qualifiers, having lost just one match and drew with Brazil in Cuiaba. An almost fully fit squad heads to the US full of confidence, and that is largely down to their captain and talisman.

Salomon Rondon has been a leading figure for the national team since 2010 – and this could potentially be his last tournament.

However, he arrives in the form of his life. After a poor period with Everton, the 34-year-old lifted the league title with River Plate but continued to play second fiddle behind Lucas Beltran and Miguel Borja.

The decision to move to Pachuca has seen him recapture a new lease of life. With 10 goals from 21 league appearances, the striker also scored nine goals in seven CONCACAF Champions Cup appearances, including a brace in the final which saw Pachuca lift the title.

Top Quality Service at 150/1

Set to lead the line with Gremio’s Yeferson Soteldo and Botafogo’s Jefferson Savarino on either side, Rondon is going to have top quality service at his disposal. Not only that, but Rondon is Venezuela’s dedicated penalty taker.

Admittedly, if Venezuela finishes second, they are likely to face Argentina in the quarter-finals, but a first place finish (which isn’t out of the question) would see them line up against Chile, Peru or Canada – further opportunities to add to his tally.

At 151.0, it’s hard to ignore one of the most in-form strikers heading into the tournament.

Euro 2024 Golden Boot Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:30, June 9th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

Like the article:3


No comments yet