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Analysis | Thursday, May 9, 2024 9:05 AM (Revised at: Thursday, June 13, 2024 10:27 AM)

Euro 2024 Group A Prediction: Betting Tips Preview

Euro 2024 Group A Prediction: Betting Tips Preview
dpa picture alliance / Alamy Stock Photo: Toni Kroos (Germany) at the corner

It is nearly time for the 17th edition of the UEFA European Football Championship and Jack Wright offers up his Euro 2024 Group A Prediction, Betting Tips and Preview. 

June 14th is the date circled on every European football fans calendar. The date Euro 2024 kicks off with Germany the hosts for the first time since its reunification. 

Can holders Italy retain the title they won at Wembley three years ago? Can England justify favouritism and finally land their first major trophy in nearly six decades? Or will it be one of the other 22 nations that take home the Henri Delaunay Trophy on July 14th?

Let me start at the top and preview Group A:

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Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:

  • Match Result (1X2)
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  • Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)

Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:

  • 8 historical tournament  analysis articles
  • 24 team-by-team articles
  • BETSiE projections for every team and group
  • Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes

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Euro 2024 Group A Overview Prediction: Toast the hosts as German efficiency is set to prevail

UEFA European Championships 2024, June 14th-July 14th 2024

As the host nation, Germany are seeded in Group A and therefore play the opening match of the tournament which is against Scotland in Munich. This will be the Germans 14th Euros, more than any other nation and as joint highest winner of the Championships alongside Spain with three it is possibly no surprise to learn they have also recorded most wins (27) and scored most goals (78). 

With home advantage, Die Mannschaft are a warm order to top the group. I make that about right, especially with key performers like Bayern pair Leroy Sane and Jamal Musiala, Bundesliga title winner Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz – more of him later – all in great form and expected to shine.

Julian Nagelsmann seems to have finally steadied the ship and started moving his squad in the right direction after the disastrous end to Hansi Flick’s spell in charge. Impressive wins over France and the Netherlands will have calmed nerves of an expectant home nation after an inauspicious start to his reign which included defeats to Turkey and Austria. 

Despite all of the exciting young talent at his disposal, possibly the most crucial piece of work completed so far by Nagelsmann is coaxing 2014 World Cup winner Toni Kroos out of international retirement. The Real Madrid midfielder returned for the France victory and immediately stamped his class all over the contest in his usual cool, composed style. 

Kroos can unlock golden ticket

As to who fills the places behind the hosts that may be tougher than first meets the eye. A lot of Scotland’s hopes may rest on getting a positive result in that tournament opener.  

Steve Clarke’s men ran Spain mighty close at the top of their qualification group. But for a contentious VAR intervention to rule out a Scott McTominay “opener” when the two nations met in Sevilla, their final standings as one and two may have been reversed. 

Having advanced from a qualifying group to a major tournament for the first time since 1997, the Tartan Army will now aim to make it to the knockout stage for the first time ever. Expect the Scots to be tough to break down but fall short due to their lack of firepower. 

Midfielder McTominay with seven was by some distance their top scorer in qualifying and engine room partner John McGinn (3) was the only other player to score more than once. All of which seems a little unsustainable and probably best explains why they are the outsiders of the group. 

Switzerland and Hungary complete the Group A lineup. 

The Swiss made a strong start to the qualifying campaign with three straight wins but only beat minnows Andorra in their remaining seven fixtures. Suffering a loss to Group I winners Romania on the final matchday. They do know their way around the tournament scene, however, and boast plenty of experience in their ranks. 

Hungary breezed through qualification unbeaten and topped their group at the expense of the more fancied Serbia. Potential dark horses, Marco Rossi’s men, should be written off at your peril.

Euro 2024 Group A Prediction 1: Ravenous Hungary can leave rivals starved of success

As mentioned in my preview I expect Germany to make the most of home advantage and claim top spot in Group A. It’s a competitive section but roared on by a passionate home support and with Toni Kroos pulling the strings I think the hosts will be able to edge their way to the head of the table. 

Manuel Neuer’s return from injury can’t be understated either, as his presence in goal is sure to help settle a sometimes shaky backline. While Florian Wirtz the only player in Bundesliga at time of writing to have completed a personal double-double (11 goals, 11 assists) has already benefited from set-piece coach Mads Buttgereit to open his scoring account for the national team. 

Their 2-0 defeat of France in Lyon was also the first “win-to-nil” over a top nation since the 1-0 victory over England in 2017. Wirtz’s goal, the fastest-ever for Die Mannschaft, coming just eight seconds into the contest, although relatively meaningless, provided yet more good vibes. 

The nation I have claimed the runner-up spot, however, is Hungary. 

Hungry for success

This is the Magyars third Euro tournament in a row and will be looking for a much better outcome than finishing bottom of the group as they did in the 2020 edition. Mitigation to that was they were in the “Group of Death” alongside heavyweights France, Germany and Portugal. Even so they were only beaten once and that defeat came with goals on 84, 87 and 90+2 by the Portuguese. 

Marco Rossi guided his side to an unbeaten qualification campaign, booking their ticket to Germany with a game spare. Subsequent defeats of Kosovo and fellow qualifiers Turkey have extended their unbeaten run to an impressive 12 games. 

Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai will captain the team having taken on the armband from the retired Adam Szalai. His four goals and four assists in qualifying illustrates how he leads from the front and having admitted to setting the bar too high in his first season for the Reds will be determined to showcase his talents on the international stage. 

The Magyars seem to fly a little under the radar despite a good level of consistency for a few years now. In 2022, they missed out on a place in the Nations League semi-finals by a point in a group containing England, Germany and eventual winners Italy. 

An emphatic 4-0 humbling of the Three Lions at Molineux perfectly illustrates their ability to win away from home. The opening fixture against Switzerland, their most likely rivals for second place, is crucial, but take a positive result from that, and I think this selection has a huge chance at a nice price. 

  • Group A Prediction 1: Germany and Hungary Group A Dual Forecast (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 3.50
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 8/10

Euro 2024 Group A Prediction 2: Kai hopes for rejuvenated Havertz

This selection is based on Julian Nagelsmann not having second thoughts and going back on his word! In his second game in charge of the national team the former Hoffenheim, RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich manager utilised Kai Havertz as a left wing-back then repeated the trick in game three. 

After labelling his performances in defeat to both Turkey and Austria as world-class, he has never played the Arsenal man there again. Back at the sharp end, Havertz tapped home Jamal Musiala’s cut-back to put his side 2-0 up against France and bag his 15th international goal.

The 24-year-old’s recent performances for the Gunners have been heralded. It’s not just his goals, but scoring eight in his last 16 appearances across all competitions will surely help his ever-growing confidence. 

It is tough to know what his greatest strength is. Take your pick from his intelligent runs which stretch defences one way then the other, an incredible level of stamina or given his stature of 6ft 4ins (1.93m) he can do more than a fairly good impression of a target man. 

Wirtz can play key role

All good strikers, or whatever you want to label Havertz as, need a supporting cast. They don’t come too much better than the one he will be working with this summer. 

Having profited from the creative brilliance of Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard at club level the former Leverkusen and Chelsea man now gets to play alongside Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz. Two superb players that generally operate as a number 10 but could possibly be played out wide to facilitate the inclusion of Ilkay Gundogan. Not a bad headache to have. 

Musiala has six assists to his name in the Bundesliga this season and has shown himself to be the perfect weapon against a low-block defence. 

Wirtz’s total of 11 league assists can only be bettered by teammate Álex Grimaldo (13) and he appears to have come back even better from his ACL injury suffered in 2022. If anyone can pick out a Havertz run, it is the slide rule precision of Wirtz. 

If that isn’t enough the searing pace of Leroy Sane, also with 11 assists to his name this term is an elite option off the bench. 

I wouldn’t put anyone off having some loose change on Havertz each-way in the top goalscorer market at a widely available 34.00. However, I simply can’t resist the 6.00 on offer for him to be Germany’s leading marksman, especially with him almost certain to start ahead of Niclas Fullkrug, who is the market favourite.  

  • Group A Prediction 2: Germany – Top Goalscorer Kai Havertz (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 6.00
  • Bookmaker: BetVictor
  • Stake: 10/10

Euro 2024 Group A Prediction odds via bet365 and Bet Victor as at 23:00, May 8th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

The Predicted Group A Standings

This does look like a really tough, tight group, and it wouldn’t surprise me if there was still much to play for in the final round of fixtures, but my full table prediction is as follows.

It is home soil advantage and the host of players in their squad performing at the peak of their powers for sides having excellent seasons that decides the winner for me. Germany to finish first and top the group.

Hungary’s recent good record against Germany, winning one and drawing two will stand them in good stead. Also with not as much focus or attention as their rivals I can see them flying under the radar to claim that runners-up spot.

The Swiss are generally consistent in tournament football. But their penchant for a draw could well leave them a point or two short of claiming the automatic route through to the knockout stages, and they will have to rely on being one of the best third-placed finishers.

I feel a little harsh handing Scotland the wooden spoon and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock to see them claim third place as they should generally be in games for the majority of the 90 minutes. Deciding factor for them will be either keeping Scott McTominay’s incredible recent scoring record going or having one of their strikers hit a hot streak at just the right time.

Group A Standings Prediction

  • Germany
  • Hungary
  • Switzerland
  • Scotland

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