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Analysis | Monday, June 3, 2024 9:56 AM (Revised at: Thursday, June 13, 2024 3:07 PM)

Euro 2024 Most Assists Prediction: Waving the Wand Behind the Striker

Euro 2024 Most Assists Prediction: Waving the Wand Behind the Striker
Mika Volkmann / Alamy Stock Photo: Ilkay Gündogan (Deutschland)

Among the plethora of outrights markets, the Euro 2024 Mosts Assists is certainly one of the most fascinating, and with that, we’ve put together a Prediction write-up ahead of the big tournament.

Before a ball is kicked in Germany, you can find very high odds, starting at 13.00 for the three main favourites (Kevin De Bruyne, Kylian Mbappe and Bruno Fernandes), and the opportunity to cash on your bet at reduced odds, as long as your selected player finishes in the top-four. 

In fact, so many factors, from teams’ form to injuries and the knockout stages draw, can determine who is going to be crowned the top assist man at Euro 2024. That’s why the main bookmakers, like bet365, offer a 1-4 each way bet for Most Assists. 

To offer some clarity and lock in three of the best selections in the betting, we’ve asked our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella, to delve into this ante-post market. 

To see who is predicted to be the Player of the Tournament, click here.

But First, bettingexpert’s Free Euro 2024 Betting Guide is out NOW!

The bettingexpert Euro 2024 Betting Guide


Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:

  • Match Result (1X2)
  • Handicap Betting
  • Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)

Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:

  • 8 historical tournament  analysis articles
  • 24 team-by-team articles
  • BETSiE projections for every team and group
  • Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes

For a free copy of the Euro 2024, click the button below:

Download the guide

Euro 2024 Most Assists Preview: Four is the magic number

Euro 2024, Germany, 14th June – 14th July

Let’s start by debunking a myth. A player does not need to win the competition to have more chances of becoming the top assist-man. 

In fact, reaching the quarter-finals stage might be more than enough and, in some cases, the assists provided during the group stage could already give someone almost the certainty to win the prize. 

Three years ago, Switzerland‘s left winger Steven Zuber gave four assists, three of which against Turkey in the last game of Group A and one in the Round of 16 against France

The Swiss lost on penalties in the quarter-finals against Spain, but three assists would have been enough for Zuber, who currently plays for AEK Athens and is part of the squad for Euro 2024, to share the prize with Luke Shaw, Dani Olmo and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg. 

All these three players reached the semi-finals, but only the Spanish attacking midfielder provided an assist in the semi-final, which La Roja lost on penalties against Italy. 

In both clubs and national competitions, when a tournament reaches its crucial stage matches normally get tighter, there are less scoring opportunities and the number of Under 2.5 Goals increases. 

A run to the final not needed

In fact, in the last three editions of the Euros, since France 2016, the semi-finals and the finals have only produced 20 goals (on average 2.22 x game, well below each tournament’s total goals average) as seven out of nine matches have ended with no more than two goals. This shows that, in this type of bet, you don’t necessarily need to pick a player whose team you believe is going to play the final on 14 July.

The group stage and the Round of 16 are the phases where the lion’s share of goals are scored, so it’s best to focus on teams who have, on paper, an initial easy run of fixtures. 

Since the turn of the millennium, therefore in the last six European Championships, only four players, Zuber, Eden Hazard and Aaron Ramsey in 2016 and Serbia’s Ljubinko Drulović in 2000, have recorded four assists. 

Given the recent expansion to 24 teams, four still remains the target to hit, but with an Each Way 1-4 bet, three assists would still probably guarantee you a win, although at reduced odds.

Euro 2024 Most Assists Prediction 1: A linchpin for club and country

Before you ask, last edition’s top assist-man, Zuber is nowhere near the favourites to win the prize again as the odds for him to repeat the achievement are higher than 155.00. So, let’s look at somebody else. 

Germany’s captain, Ilkay Gundogan, has played 75 times for Die Mannschaft, scoring 18 times and providing seven assists. 

He approaches this European Championship on the back of two successful seasons, where he first won the treble with Manchester City (contributing with 11 goals and 7 assists) before moving to La Liga where he established himself as one of Barcelona’s best players, with 51 appearances, five goals and 14 assists. 

You can trust ‘Gundo’ will start every game for the host nation, forming the backbone of Germany’s midfield alongside Toni Kroos. 

Furthermore, the former City’s playmaker will probably be Germany’s free-kicks and corners taker, with Florian Wirtz right behind him. 

Considering Julian Nagelsmann can count with players particularly good in the air, for example Antonio Rudiger and Niclas Füllkrug, or others, like Kai Havertz, excellent at timing their runs into the box, goals from set pieces would probably add to Gundogan’s assists tally. 

Add to that that the hosts are in a relatively easy group, with Scotland, Hungary and Switzerland, and they’re considered by many, the ‘dark-ish horse’ among the big nations.

  • Euro 2024 Most Assists Prediction 1: Ilkay Gundogan (Each Way 1-4) (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 41.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 5/10

Euro 2024 Most Assists Prediction 2: The set-pieces specialist

At same odds as Gundogan you’ll find his former City’s teammate Rodri, who is an essential player for both Pep Guardiola and Spain’s national coach, Luis de la Fuente. 

After scoring the winners in last year’s Champions League final, and providing nine assists, the Madrid-born midfielder has had another excellent campaign, culminating with the Premier League title, and four more assists (14), in all competitions, than in 2022/2023.

Spain is no longer the dominant side that won back-to-back Euros, but it hasn’t dramatically changed its style of play. It remains a team that is always looking to keep the ball and catch the opposition out of shape. 

Euro 2024 Most Assists Prediction`. Rodri Hernandez of Spain during the friendly match between national teams of Spain and Brazil

The presence of quick wingers, like Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, represents a novelty for a team that, in the last couple of tournaments, lacked players capable of running in behind defences. 

In the Euro Qualifiers, they were first for possession (67%) and passing accuracy (91%), and third for goals scored behind Portugal and France. 

This summer Rodri will touch the ball a lot, as he’s used to doing in the Premier League, where across his career he’s averaging 86 passes per match, and might take part in a couple of La Roja’s goals. 

Rodri’s goal contribution tally with the national side is not exceptional (only three goals and two assists in 49 appearances), but at such a high price, and with the chance to win even if he finishes in fourth position, the City’s number 16 represent a good value. 

  • Euro 2024 Most Assists Prediction 2: Rodri (Each Way 1-4) (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 41.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 3/10

Euro 2024 Most Assists Prediction 3: High-Value Calhanoglu

Hakan Calhanoglu is, on the other hand, an outside-the-box, high-value pick. 

This season he’s only provided three assists in all competitions with Inter Milan, but with the Nerazzurri he’s been re-invented in a deep-lying midfielder role which perhaps does not allow him to directly create many scoring opportunities for his teammates. 

In fact, his assists numbers are much higher in all the previous seasons, whereas at Inter, AC Milan, and in the Bundesliga, Calhanoglu played number 10 in a front-three or next to the main striker. 

During his career, the Turkish midfielder has produced more assists (125) than goals (121), with a pass that led to a goal every 4.5 games. 

Calhanoglu is Turkey’s captain and best player and also the one deployed to take every set piece. 

The Turkish were probably the biggest disappointment of the last Euros, where they lost all three games and scored only once, but under Vincenzo Montella, they topped Group D in the qualifiers and are unbeaten in three official matches. 

Turkey should qualify with relative ease, as runners-up behind Portugal, and their debut against Georgia, the lowest ranked team at Euro 2024, 35 places below the Turkish in the FIFA ranking, could be an opportunity to rack up the goals.

  • Euro 2024 Most Assists Prediction 3: Hakan Calhanoglu (Each way 1-4) (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 81.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 2/10

Euro 2024 Most Assists Prediction odds via bet365 as at 08:30, May 31st, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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