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Analysis | Wednesday, June 12, 2024 2:39 PM (Revised at: Wednesday, June 12, 2024 2:51 PM)

Euro 2024 Top Team and League Goalscorer Prediction: Betting Tips Preview

Euro 2024 Top Team and League Goalscorer Prediction: Betting Tips Preview
Cesar Ortiz Gonzalez / Alamy Stock Photo: Alvaro Morata of Spain in action

With Euro 2024 closing in on us, Josh Ingram has put together a Euro 2024 Top Team and League Goalscorer ante-post prediction focusing on specific nations’ most prolific marksman in the final third.

All four players ushered into the spotlight below have featured in the Premier League at one stage in their careers—three are still contracted to an English side. 

If that’s not enough for you, how about indulging in our Most Assists, Top Goalscorer, or Player of the Tournament articles elsewhere on bettingexpert.

Euro 2024 Top Team Goalscorer Prediction 1: Golden Gakpo Once Again? 

European Championships 2024, June 15th – July 15th 

Gakpo has played 24 times for the Netherlands, mainly off the left-hand side, his preferred position. He’s scored nine times. In the most recent World Cup in Qatar, the Dutchman was his nation’s top scorer with three goals in five games. 

Early in the season, he started as an eight in central midfield, which he is not suited to. Klopp’s preference for Gakpo was to see him used as the centre forward, a position he is hit and miss at and rarely utilises in his optimal left wing/left midfielder position he played at PSV and the national team. Gakpo played 53 times for Liverpool in all competitions, scoring 16 goals, just slightly over one in three for the season. 

During the qualifying campaign, Gakpo only played five times, starting just three out of the eight matches. He averaged just 55 minutes a game and was hampered by injuries. Gakpo was the joint Dutch top scorer with Wout Weghorst and Calvin Stengs, who all had three goals. With a goal every 91 minutes, he had the best goal frequency in qualifying for a player who made the squad, as Weghorst’s rate was every 172 minutes, and Stengs didn’t make the cut.

Clinical From the left

The Netherlands were less free-scoring than other nations in qualification, scoring 17, making them the 12th highest scorers. I don’t expect them to change how they play in this Euros. I suspect three goals will be enough to win the top scorer for the country, which has been the case in the last two international tournaments, with Gakpo in Qatar 2022 and Wijnaldum in Euro 2020. 

Netherlands are in Group D at the Euros with France, Austria, and Poland. A Poland squad without the injured Lewandowski should be relatively easy opponents for a talented Dutch side on the first match day. They realistically should finish second behind an outstanding French squad. If this were to be the case, the draw for the knockout stages would become favourable for the round of 16, being pitted against the runner-up of Group E, who would likely be one of Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine, with Belgium expected to top the group. 

Gakpo is the second favourite for the team’s top scorer, with Memphis Depay going off at 4.33 currently, which was a surprise. Depay is coming off an injury-hit season where he only featured in 26% of all available minutes in La Liga, finding himself more often than not coming off the bench. He only managed five goals in his 25 league appearances, scoring nine in total in his 31 games in all competitions. Due to injuries, he could only play in two qualifiers, scoring just once. 

  • Euro 2024 Top Team Goalscorer Prediction 1: Cody Gakpo Top Netherlands Goalscorer (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 4.50 
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 5/10

Euro 2024 Top Team Goalscorer Prediction 2: Spain’s Main man for a fourth time?

Alvaro Morata is one of the most marmite strikers of recent times, a finisher you would rarely be confident of scoring when one-on-one with the goalkeeper, but he is my pick to be Spain’s top marksman. 

The main reason is that he turns up for Spain in major tournaments. He was the top scorer in the last World Cup for Spain, along with Euro 2016 and 2021. Morata scored three goals in each of those tournaments, as Diego Costa won the 2018 World Cup for Spain with three. 

In the current season, Morata has been a key player for his club, playing in 55% of all available minutes in La Liga. He’s found the back of the net 15 times in 32 appearances, showcasing his scoring prowess. In all competitions, he’s scored 21 goals in 48 games, further solidifying his position as a decent goal-getter.

La Roja were the third-highest scorers with 25 in Euro qualifying. Morata and Joselu finished joint top with four each, Ferran Torres with three, and a further three players with two each. This is a dynamic, younger Spain side compared to recent times and one that spreads the goals out with the likes of Yamal, Williams, and Olmo. 

Spain to take Group crown?

The Spaniards are odds-on favourites at 1.80 to finish top of the group, which includes Italy, Croatia, and Albania. I expect tight affairs against Italy and Croatia but a dominant win against Albania. Consequently, if they win the group, they would have to play a third-place side who they should beat on paper, meaning a minimum of five games if knocked out in the quarter-finals.

Morata, due to the reasons given, is the favourite at 3.25. According to the bookmakers, his main competition for the Spanish top scorer title is Olmo, who is 6/1. He scored two goals in qualifying and will be the ten behind Morata; he is more likely to be involved in the build-up play than finishing the chances in this Spain team. Joselu is third favourite, but due to a lack of minutes from being second choice behind Morata, I can’t see him having the volume of chances needed to better the Spanish captain in front of goal this time out. 

  • Euro 2024 Top Team Goalscorer Prediction 2: Alvaro Morata Top Spain Goalscorer (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 3.25 
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 5/10

Euro 2024 Top League Goalscorer Prediction 3: Rom to reign over Serie A

Lukaku is the exact striker on the international stage you would want to be backing in some capacity, with an impressive 85 goals in 115 starts for the national side, including scoring four in Euro 2021.

As Belgium’s main striker, his returns in qualifying for this competition saw a staggering 14 goals in eight games. His contributions accounted for 63% of Belgium’s 22 goals in all of qualifying, making him the undisputed leading man in the team. The team’s success in this competition might hinge on his performance levels.

Coming off a relatively impressive season at Roma, Lukaku scored 21 goals in 47 appearances. A significant factor in his performance was him being injury-free, allowing him to play 85% of the available minutes. Lukaku, eager to make amends for the last World Cup, where he missed a high volume of chances, is poised to make a strong impact in the upcoming competition.

Group E should be very happy hunting grounds for the Red Devils. I’m expecting the big number nine to do most of the heavy lifting in the group stage, where the majority of games should be determined by how many, not by whether they should win. Ukraine should be the only game that will be of a particular challenge. 

Happy Hunting Grounds

The other two sides in the group rankings are worse than the two nations Belgium faced in qualifying. Belgium will face a third-place side if they top the group, so they might not be in a game where they aren’t the heavy favourite until the quarter-final. 

The main difference between now and qualifying is that the best creative player on earth is fit for Belgium. Kevin de Bruyne played one qualifying game and registered 0 assists. During qualifying, eight players assisted Lukaaku with his 14 goals, showing the level of creativity through the side. A creative side with Doku, Trossard, and Bakayoko, and now the best passer in football, will be added to supply Lukaku with even more chances. It’s a match made in heaven. 

Lukaku’s likely challenge for top Serie A marksman will be Giroud and a host of Italian options. Giroud is a distant second favourite. He is France’s all-time scorer, but not the main goal scorer in this French side now – 33% of goals came from Mbappe in qualifying. Due to his age and alternative options like Marcus Thuram, he will have limited minutes and fewer chances in front of goal. Also, Italy is in a tough group, with Spain and Croatia more than likely having limited opportunities and a good chance of an early elimination.

  • Euro 2024 Top League Goalscorer Prediction 3: Romelu Lukaku Top Seria A Goalscorer (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 3.00 
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 7/10

Euro 2024 Top League Goalscorer Prediction 4: Bags of goals for Bruno

Bruno Fernandes has been a crucial cog in Roberto Martinez’s machine since he took over the Portugal job. He was the second top scorer for Portugal behind Cristiano Ronaldo, who was part of the top-scoring team in qualifying with 36 goals.

Bruno Fernandes has proven to be a reliable scorer with an impressive international record of 22 goals in 67 appearances from the attacking midfield. His performance suggests that he is a viable option to alleviate the scoring pressure from 39-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo.

Coming off the back of a disappointing campaign for Man United, the Portuguese still returned a healthy one-in-three goal ratio in all competitions, with 15 goals in 48 matches. 

Domination Expected

Portugal is in a strong position to dominate their group, mirroring their performance in the qualification group. The group, consisting of the Czech Republic, Turkey, and Georgia, will likely be a manageable challenge. Portugal is expected to face the third-best team of A/B/C, which should be a relatively easier game. With their potential to reach at least the semi-finals, there are ample opportunities for Fernandes to score in a free-scoring team.

​​In previous iterations of this competition, Kane was the top Premier League scorer, winning with four goals in Euro 2020; in 2016, Giroud and Payet scored three, the highest. In 2012, Torres and Balotelli both tallied three. 

Among the favourites to win top Premier League scorer this time around is Havertz, Germany’s main forward option. He is not the type of player I would hang my hat on to lead a country as its main goalscorer. Foden may be coming off a Player of the Year campaign, but he only has three goals in 34 England appearances. Saka did have an impressive haul at the last World Cup with three goals, but I can see Kane, now plying his trade in the Bundesliga, being front and centre in the main for England this time out. 

  • Euro 2024 Top League Goalscorer Prediction 4: Bruno Fernandes Top Premier League Goalscorer (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 10.00 
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 3/10

Euro 2024 Golden Boot Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, June 12th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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