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Analysis | Thursday, August 24, 2023 8:31 AM (Revised at: Friday, September 8, 2023 10:50 AM)

FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 Outright Winner Odds

FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 Outright Winner Odds
IMAGO / NurPhoto Jalen Brunson of USA Team in action during the Torneo Ciudad de Malaga, basketball match played between USA and Slovenia

FIBA Basketball World Cup Outright Winner Odds, Analysis: Wednesday, August 23rd

The FIBA 2023 World Cup will be the 19th edition of the World Cup and the co-hosts are the Philippines, Indonesia, and Japan. There will be 32 national teams in 8 groups, but only one can go all the way.

The United States are once again favoured to win the international gold, having won 2 of the last 3 FIBA World Cup tournaments, but it was Spain who went all the way last time around.

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In this article:

FIBA World Cup 2023 Outright Winner Odds

Team Odds Implied Probability
USA 1.40 68.5%
Serbia 4.00 25%
Germany 10.00 10%

Odds available at bet365 as of September 8th 2023. Odds may now differ.

UPDATE: September 8th 2023.

It is now down to 3 teams, USA, Germany and the United States!

Serbia just beat Canada by 95-86 in a very one-sided game and they are on their way to the finals.

Germany vs USA takes place later today and we are in for another interesting final no matter the result. Can Germany reach the FIBA World Cup 2023 finals or will the USA get it done again? Let’s see what the bookmakers say!

The USA are at shorter odds than ever to get the job done, now listed at 1.46 odds and almost 70% implied probability.

Serbia’s FIBA World Cup Winner odds have shortened significantly since the start of the tournament and they are now available at 4.00 odds at Bet365.

Germany are set to face the USA in the finals and they are listed at 10.00 odds with a 10% implied probability.

The Favorites: USA, France and Australia Lead the Way

The teams have played many preparation games, and the full rosters that will go to the tournament are mostly known. There are several teams that need to cut one or two players, but most of the stronger teams have already announced their FIBA World Cup 2023 final rosters.

Just like in 2019, the USA went again with a roster that is built as a mixture of promising young stars with several experienced veterans. New York Knicks point guard, Jalen Brunson will lead the way, They are the main favourite of the tournament by bookmakers, but there is no value as their FIBA World Cup winner odds are set at 1.90, while 2nd closest team is Canada at 8.50 (odds from bet365).

There are two teams that are getting the same odds – Canada and France.

Canada is fielding the strongest squad they ever had, but again they will not be complete. NBA champion Jamal Murray will miss the tournament due to fatigue after the Nuggets’ 2023 title run.

Canada split versus Germany in two exciting games, Shai Gilgeous Alexander played fantastic, and while Brooks is also playing solid at defence, Canada should have done better than allowing 86 and 111 points to Germany. Their starters are great, but the bench has left a lot to be desired and depth could be a huge problem in the tournament.

Their group is one of the hardest, having France and Latvia, and there is a possibility they will face Germany again in the quarterfinals.

Last year’s Eurobasket runner-ups, France are looking to fight for a medal. They announced their 12-man squad already in June and Ntilikina’s spot will be taken by Isaiah Cordinier. Matthias Lessort is having some issues with injuries, and France got the option of changing him for Vincent Poirier.

They showcased strong defence in their preparation games against Lithuania, with Rudy Gobert leading the way and containing the whole opponent’s offence. Most of last year’s Eurobasket squad will be here again, they know each other well, and their continuity should be an advantage in the World Cup. Their FIBA World Cup Winner odds are set at 9.00 and they are second in line.

The Contenders: Australia, Spain and Serbia in The Race

Three teams are in the second tier of favourites. Australia, Spain, and Serbia.

SERBIA vs PUERTO RICO BOGDAN BOGDANOVIC basketball Serbia Puerto Rico friendly match, Stark Belgrade Arena

The Aussies are close to finalizing their roster, with only one cut needing to happen. Josh Giddey will play his first bigger tournament for the Boomers. There will also be Patty Mills, Joe Ingles, Matisse Thybulle, Josh Green, Dante Exum, and Jock Landale.

There are injury concerns with Jock Landale and Chris Goulding, but Australia never had a playmaker like Giddey on the team and Duop Reath showcased how dangerous Giddey will be in the pick-and-roll. They are third in line and their FIBA World Cup winner odds are 10.00at Bet365.

Spain should never be underestimated. Sergio Scariolo is one of the better coaches at the tournament. Whilst their point guard position will be short (no Ricky Rubio who is missing the tournament to focus on mental health, and no Lorenzo Brown), they will have the Hernangomez brothers, who are playing fantastic in the FIBA setting.

The last World Cup and Eurobasket champions will have a tougher tournament this time, as their best point guards will be the young Nunez and Alberto Diaz will be their options for that position. They still have great experience in Rudy Fernandez, Alex Abrines, Victor Claver, and will be strengthened by NBA player, Santi Aldama.

Scariolo knows how to set up unpredictable defences and throw opponents’ gameplan out, so Spain will be as dangerous as always. Spain’s FIBA World Cup winner odds are currently at 13.00 and they are 4th in line.

Serbia is the third team in the group, but there are so many issues with missing players it is questionable why they are in the same tier as Spain and Australia. There is no NBA MVP, Nikola Jokic, no Vasilije Micic, Vladimir Lucic, Nikola Kalinic, Nemanja Nedovic, and the newest missings are Alen Smailagic and Uros Trifunovic.

This squad has got some serious problems and while some of the top guys are there (Bogdan Bogdanovic, Nikola Milutinov, Marko Guduric), they don’t have depth on the bench. The only thing that could save Serbia is the favourable bracket, but they will need to win all their games until the play-off phase for that to happen.

Team That Could Surprise: Germany Is Underrated

Mens National Team International Match Test Match Supercup Germany GER Canada CAN Dennis Schröder Schroeder Germany

Germany’s FIBA World Cup Winner Odds are at 23.00 and they are the seventh favourite of the tournament, but they could make some noise. They showcased two great games versus Canada, and while they will be without Maxi Kleber, they still have great depth.

Franz Wagner is an NBA star in the making, and he plays fantastic in the FIBA setting, as he has acquired experience in overseas basketball earlier in his career playing for Alba Berlin.

Dennis Schroeder is also there, and we all remember how well he played in the last Eurobasket when Germany finished third.


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