| Tuesday, August 13, 2024 9:23 AM

La Liga Prediction: Ante-Post Outright Preview

Josh Ingram

Football expert, Josh Ingram brings you his La Liga Prediction: Ante-Post Outright Preview across various markets for the upcoming season in Spain.

Although it will be for the first time since the 2007/08 season if Real Madrid were to retain their La Liga crown, Carlo Ancelotti’s men are the heavy favourites to do so. The promoted clubs should struggle, the order might be restored for the top three, and an outside Golden boot chaser are just some of the angles that look most appetising for the 2024/25 season.

Atlético madrid win without Real Madrid and Barcelona
Athletic club to finish in the Top Four
Gorka Guruzeta Top Scorer each way
Real Valladoid to be relegated
Top three exact order

La Liga 2024/25 Prediction: A return to the top three

Spain, La Liga.

Some selections are best not to overthink. Over the last decade, Atlético Madrid have consistently been in the top three in Spain, since the 2012/13 season. Last year, anomalous results saw them beaten to third by an excellent Girona side, who’ve become a noticeably weaker outfit after being raided in the transfer market.

Replacing Alvaro Morata and Memphis Depay with Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez is quality business. The two departing forwards’ minutes, particularly Depay’s, were very limited last year due to injuries, so signing players who’ll feature in nearly every game was needed.

In Alexander Sorloth, they are getting a striker who knows the league and came second in the Golden Boot race with 23 goals and six assists, directly replacing a striker in Alvaro Morata, whose highest return was 15.

Julian Alvarez’s imminent signing is the most impressive capture for a multitude of reasons. He’s a goalscorer and creator with 17 goals and 11 assists in all competitions across 52 games. His availability is a huge factor. He’s a forward who’s rarely injured, and he can be, as shown at times for Man City, someone who can win the game through individual quality.

Roman Le Normand adds much-needed quality to central defence by replacing Mario Hermonos and the erratic Stefan Savic. The expected acquisition of Conor Gallagher might turn out to be a masterstroke in terms of style and fit under a specific coach – he is the type of player who will slot into Diego Simeone’s system perfectly – a player who plays with aggression and one Simeone will likely adore as he puts it all on the line for the team.

Elsewhere, Girona will not amass the same level of points as last year. They are a side that has seen most of their best players leave. The league’s top scorer has moved to lead the line for Roma; Artem Dobvyk finished the season with 24 goals and eight assists. Due to being part of the City Group, Savinho returned to Troyes and was subsequently bought by Man City. In addition, Yan Cuoto’s loan ended, and he has since been loaned to Dortmund. In these three departures, Griona lost their top three in the assists charts. Time will tell if the replacements are adequate, but they look a step-down quality-wise on paper.

Ante-Post Selection 1: Atletico Madrid Without (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.50
Bookmaker: Skybet
Stake: 10/10

La Liga 2024/25 Prediction: Champions League bound for Athletic Club

Spain, La Liga.

The last time Athletic Club finished in the Champions League places was ten years ago, in the 2013/14 season. I feel it’s a open shootout for fourth between three sides priced the same at 2.87: Girona, Real Sociedad, and Athletic Club.

The Basque Country-based outfit finished 5th last year with 68 points, only six points off of Atlético Madrid in 4th. It was a good points haul for them and a successful league campaign, but the main success was the Copa del Rey win, where they beat Mallorca on penalties to end their 40-year drought of silverware.

Over the last ten years, the average points total for teams finishing 4th and clinching the coveted Champions League place has been 71 points, with a high of 77 for Sevilla in 2020/21 and a low of 61 for Valencia in 2018/19.

It’s anticipated that Girona may not reach the 80-point mark again, indicating a potential decline from their third-place finish. Given the significant personnel changes the club has undergone, it wouldn’t be a surprise for them to drop out of the top four, especially with all the extra European games they will be playing.

Due to the ‘Cantera policy’ that Athletic Club has adhered to since 1912, their transfer activity is limited, but for good reason. This policy, which prioritises homegrown talent, results in more continuity than most teams, as high player turnover would be counterproductive. As a result, only two signings have been made, Albaro Djalo from Braga being the only player bought for a fee. The Portuguese midfielder had a solid campaign last season, scoring eight goals and five assists. I can see him flourishing and progressing even more in this setup.

Real Sociedad have noticeably lost Robin Le Normand at centre-back, which is a significant defensive loss. The Euros-winning defender opted to move to Atletico Madrid, and he is yet to be replaced. Defensively, Real Sociedad has bought Sergio Gomez from Man City, which won’t make a huge difference in pushing into the top 4 as they still appear to be short at the back. The signing of Luka Sučić looks like a good purchase. The 21-year-old is definitely one for the future, but he can make an impact right away; his nine combined goals and assists last term at RB Salzburg show that.

Ante-Post Selection 2: Athletic Club to finish in the Top 4
Best Odds: 2.87
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 5/10

La Liga 2024/25 Prediction: Fire himself into the top Four

Spain, La Liga.

Kylian Mbappe has joined the league, so you would expect him to mop up the Golden Boot, an accolade he’s won six times on the bounce at PSG in Ligue 1. However, his price of 1.57 is not appealing in the slightest, so you have to turn elsewhere in the hope of landing a placing payout.

Analysing the markets for players who could be in the mix, there are a few appealing options, particularly Gorka Guruzeta. He will likely be operating up top again in a team that will challenge for fourth, and similar to last season, he will feature in many of the team’s fixtures.

At 27, Gorka Guruzeta has shown significant improvement in his performance. Last season, he averaged 70 minutes a game with 30 starts, scoring 14 goals and finishing 11th in the scoring charts and 12th in expected goals. This is a notable improvement from his previous season, where he scored six goals in his first proper season in the top flight. His progress is evident, and there is no reason he can’t keep climbing the goalscoring charts.

Over the past few seasons, getting into the top four places for a payout each way has seen a goal tally of 19, 15, and 17. The top end of the scoring charts isn’t exclusively for the top three sides, with eight out of the last ten featuring at least one from members outside these clubs. Last year, Artem Dovbyk from Girona won it.

Ante-Post Selection 3: Gorka Guruzeta Top Scorer
Best Odds: 67.00
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 2.5/10 each way, total stake 5/10

La Liga 2024/25 Prediction: Third relegation to cement the yo-yo club status

Spain, La Liga.

Last year, the fight to stay up saw the three clubs that went down stay as the bottom three from the 18th matchday onwards.

Over the last four seasons, Real Valladolid has been relegated to the second division twice and promoted back on the first try both times. They are the very definition of a yo-yo club at present, and it will be hard for them to break that spell.

The lack of goals will be evident in this side once the season starts. In the last campaign, the side’s top scorer scored eight goals, as the team scored 51 times across the 42-game campaign. The last time they were promoted, Real Valladolid registered 71 goals in the second tier, and this dropped to just 33 in La Liga. They may have finished second by a point, but out of 22 teams, they came 12th in terms of xG, failing to score in 30% of their league fixtures.

When looking over a large portion of their signings with a couple of expectations, it is noticeable that they have no experience of playing in any top flight of the main five leagues in Europe, let alone having already participated in a La Liga relegation scrap.

This inexperience of top-flight football and lack of quality will be found out in this division. Last year, two of the promoted sides were relegated; this was the first time in five years that more than one promoted side went straight back down.

Ante-Post Selection 4: Real Valladolid Relegation (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.75
Bookmaker: paddypower
Stake: 5/10

La Liga 2024/25 Prediction: No shocks at the top of the table

Spain, La Liga.

Real Madrid are as short as 1.44 to win the league title this season, and it’s expected. Not many, unless you were a Barcelona supporter, could point towards much else.

The signings they have made year after year have proved sensational business. This season’s summer star was Kylian Mbappe on a ‘free’ transfer, supplemented by a rather large signing bonus. Adding arguably the world’s best player to a side that already mustered a league and Champions League double is very ominous for the chasing pack. There is no reason why they don’t realistically walk La Liga in 2023/24.

A new manager in Hansi Flick was needed in Barcelona to give the squad a new lease of life after finishing ten points behind Los Blancos, who they lost to home and away. Not only that, but it was evident that Xavi and the board didn’t see eye to eye anymore.

They are still notably weaker than Real Madrid in terms of challenging for the title. Defensively, the champions only conceded 26 goals in the league. Real Madrid had a post-shot expected goal conceded of 34.4, and the goalkeepers cumulatively saved 9.4 goals, the best rate in La Liga.

The signing of Dani Olmo will improve them going forward and create more chances for Robert Lewandowski. Still, in my eyes, it will ultimately come down to them and an ever-changing Atlético Madrid for second spot. The completed signings of Sorloth and Le Normand have drastically improved the team. The expected signing of Julian Alvarez is the difference maker from another potential season of finishing third to pushing them into the top 2 again.

Getting both permutations of the two sides that will likely come in second and third is advantageous at the prices, as looking at them on paper shows little to separate them. The 9.00 selection has only landed three times in ten seasons, and the other hasn’t at all. However, the unknown of Flick at Barcelona could see teething problems in his first year, and a stumble to 3rd wouldn’t be out of the question.

Ante-Post Selection 5: La liga exact order 1st Real Madrid, 2nd Barca, 3rd Atlético Madrid and 1st Real Madrid, 2nd Atlético Madrid, 3rd Barcelona
Best Odds: 10.00 and 13.00 (TRACKED BETS)
Bookmaker: Skybet
Stake: 5/10 on 10.00 and 2.5/10 on 13.00

La Liga Outright Ante-Post Tips Odds via bet365 as at 10:25, 9th August 2024 – odds for best bets may now differ.

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