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| Četvrtak, Oktobar 26, 2023 1:36 PM (Revised at: Četvrtak, Oktobar 26, 2023 1:39 PM)
Supercomputer Predictions for the 2023/24 NBA Season
Milan Stanojic
4
With the NBA finally back, we have decided to treat our faithful readers with a special piece of content this year, something we haven’t had in the Expert Insights basketball section yet: BETSiE Supercomputer predictions.
If you’re already wondering what the hell BETSiE is and why you should care about what she has to say about the NBA, listen up.
BETSiE is a supercomputer developed by bettingexpert’s very own Jacqui Brocker, a seasoned sports bettor with over 20 years of experience in the industry and a mathematical mastermind.
BETSiE has assessed the expected points for and against each team in each game through the NBA season and given us an overview of their potential Win/Loss, records, chances of making the playoffs, winning the conference and winning an NBA championship. She has done this by running a simulation of the NBA season 100,000 times and these are the results.
In this article:
BETSiE Predicts NBA Eastern Conference
| Club | W | L | Playoffs | Win Conference | Win Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 53.8 | 28.2 | 95.80% | 30.50% | 15.60% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 52.9 | 29.1 | 95.30% | 29.80% | 15.60% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 49.9 | 32.1 | 90.60% | 8.20% | 4.00% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 48.7 | 33.3 | 89.40% | 11.80% | 6.40% |
| Miami Heat | 45.2 | 36.8 | 80.70% | 6.80% | 3.20% |
| New York Knicks | 43.1 | 38.9 | 67.10% | 3.00% | 1.40% |
| Atlanta Hawks | 42.6 | 39.4 | 68.50% | 3.20% | 1.40% |
| Brooklyn Nets | 38.3 | 43.7 | 48.10% | 2.10% | 0.90% |
| Chicago Bulls | 37.5 | 44.5 | 36.40% | 0.90% | 0.40% |
| Indiana Pacers | 37.3 | 44.7 | 36.30% | 0.70% | 0.30% |
| Toronto Raptors | 37.1 | 44.9 | 38.00% | 2.00% | 0.80% |
| Orlando Magic | 35.8 | 46.2 | 29.90% | 0.50% | 0.30% |
| Charlotte Hornets | 31.2 | 50.8 | 11.80% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| Detroit Pistons | 27.7 | 54.3 | 6.10% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| Washington Wizards | 26.2 | 55.8 | 5.00% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
According to our supercomputer, the Boston Celtics are the most likely team to win the NBA Eastern Conference this year and the most likely to win their first NBA title since the Big 3 era of Rondo, Pierce and Garnett. They are valued at 15.6% to win the title, and according to the latest NBA Championship Winner odds, this is 4.4% less than the 5.00 odds would have us think.
The Milwaukee Bucks follow close behind and after their acquisition of Damian Lillard this offseason, it’s easy to see why. The Bucks now have, in addition to an already solid team, an elite scorer and 3-point shooter from beyond the arc. It will be interesting to see how the Bucks fare with this squad.
The Bucks also appear to be overvalued by the books. BETSiE values them at 15.6% odds of winning the NBA title, but the bookmakers have priced them as the top favourites at 22.2%
Not much is expected to change this year for the Cleveland Cavaliers according to BETSiE, with an expected win total of 50 games, 1 fewer than last season. However, their chances of winning the East or the title are still slim at 8.2% and 4.0% respectively.
Last year’s Eastern Conference Champions and finalists the Miami Heat are projected to finish 5th in the conference, just behind the Philadelphia 76ers. Despite their success last year, they are only valued at 6.8% to repeat last year’s success and just 3.2% to win the title.
What’s more, even at these percentages the Miami Heat are overvalued. The books have them at 21.00 odds (4.8%) to win the chip.
This is quite interesting to see, especially with the 76ers’ struggles with James Harden this year. Philly are still projected to win 49 games and are a shoo-in for the playoffs.
BETSiE Predicts NBA Western Conference
| Club | W | L | Playoffs | Win Conference | Win Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 50.4 | 31.6 | 89.80% | 22.00% | 11.30% |
| Phoenix Suns | 48.5 | 33.5 | 80.60% | 15.60% | 8.00% |
| Golden State Warriors | 47.2 | 34.8 | 80.00% | 12.20% | 6.10% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 46.4 | 35.6 | 77.00% | 11.60% | 5.70% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 45.9 | 36.1 | 74.90% | 9.40% | 4.60% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 45 | 37 | 67.50% | 6.00% | 2.90% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 43.9 | 38.1 | 66.10% | 5.20% | 2.30% |
| Sacramento Kings | 43.9 | 38.1 | 64.40% | 5.00% | 2.40% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 43.2 | 38.8 | 57.50% | 3.50% | 1.80% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 42.2 | 39.8 | 52.70% | 5.50% | 2.70% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 42.1 | 39.9 | 49.50% | 2.10% | 0.90% |
| Utah Jazz | 36.3 | 45.7 | 20.70% | 0.90% | 0.40% |
| Houston Rockets | 31.5 | 50.5 | 9.30% | 0.40% | 0.20% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 28.6 | 53.4 | 5.30% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 27.6 | 54.4 | 5.60% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
BETSiE doesn’t have a great opinion about the defending champions the Denver Nuggets, placing them third in line to defend the NBA championship with a win percentage of 11.3%.
The bookmaker odds of 5.50 suggest a 18.2% chance for the Nuggets but the old gal says they are overvalued. They did lose some important pieces in Bruce Brown and Jeff Green this offseason but we will see how their season shakes out.
Despite assembling a deadly starting lineup with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, the Phoenix Suns are only 4th in line to lift the title. BETSiE expects them to win 3.5 more games than last year and they are the second favourites to win the Western Conference.
The drop from the 14.3% implied bookmaker NBA title chances to the 8% on BETSiE is huge, so if you’re looking for value on the Suns early in the season, you are unlikely to find it.
The Golden State Warriors have been declining for some time and BETSiE is well aware. Following their title run in 2021/22, the Warriors finished 6th in the Western Conference last season with a 44-38 record and made their exit in the 2nd round of the playoffs.
For this season, BETSiE is predicting a 47-35 record and another playoff appearance, but their chances of making another title run are slim at just 6.1%.
46 or more wins would be a nice improvement for the LA Lakers compared to their 43-39 record last season. They made huge changes at the All-Star break and their performance improved dramatically, reaching the Western Conference finals.
BETSiE expects the Lakers to comfortably make the playoffs this year but their title chances are slim at 5.7%.
The story is the same for their city rivals, the Los Angeles Clippers. An improved record by 2 wins but no real chances of making big moves in the playoffs at 9.4% to win the Conference and 4.6% to go for the title.
The Paul George and Kawhi Leonard experiment has been a failure so far with the team making a first-round exit last year and failing to even make the playoffs the year before.
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
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