Copa Libertadores Prediction: Ante-Post Outright Preview

The 2025 Copa Libertadores group stage returns in April and our very own South American football expert Nathan Joyes is back to provide a winner and top goalscorer prediction, invaluable insight, knowledge, and seven of his best ante-post for the tournament.

From outright picks, value selections and group qualification, there’s a variety of bets Nathan has recommended to back ahead of the competition kicking off in April. 

Having landed Botafogo to lift the trophy at 21.00 last campaign, it’s always worth reading what he’s got to say.

• Copa Libertadores Tip 1: Internacional to lift the trophy

• Copa Libertadores Tip 2: Barcelona to qualify from Group B

• Copa Libertadores Tip 3: Bolivar to qualify from Group G

• Copa Libertadores Tip 4: Adrian Martinez Top Goalscorer
• Copa Libertadores Tip 5: Enner Valencia Top Goalscorer

Copa Libertadores Prediction 1: Back Brazil’s underdogs

Copa Libertadores, April 2nd, 20:00 (UK)

It has taken a few years but the bookmakers have finally cottoned on to the fact Brazilian teams aren’t going anywhere, and their domination in this tournament is set to continue. 

However, they can’t help but throw in a couple of Argentine clubs, as well as certain clubs that don’t look ready to compete, and that’s helped to create value in the outright market.

After tipping Fluminense at 34.0 in 2024 and Botafogo at 21.0 last year, sadly there isn’t a side that big which I believe can go all the way. However, a double figure price has caught my eye, so stick with me as I talk through the market leaders and their weaknesses.

Flamengo are the favourites. In fact, they are favourites for a fifth year in a row. They’ve won it twice, and if I’m going to be honest, this year more than most they deserve to be sitting at the top of the list.

Under Filipe Luis, who replaced former Brazil head coach Tite last season, the former U20 coach was only meant to step in and guide his team until the end of the campaign. Instead, he’s been in the role six months, lost once and collected three trophies. In an era where young Brazilian coaches are lacking, Luis has been a shining light.

I have to leave them be

However, every year there’s an expectation Flamengo should win the treble. They do often make it to the latter stages of most competitions – as well as competing for the league title – but that’s an awful lot of fixture congestion and pressure to deal with. Games every three days often finds them out in one competition – and that might just be the Libertadores.

Once Pedro unfortunately did his ACL on international duty last campaign, Flamengo dropped off. He’s still yet to return, and although they’ve brought in Qarabag’s Juninho, one or two key injuries doesn’t make their non-existent each-way price appealing. At 4.5, I have to leave them be.

The same applies to Palmeiras. A huge rebuild has taken place under Abel Ferreira, who have spent close to $100m. Orlando City’s Facundo Torres, Atletico Mineiro’s Paulinho and Barcelona’s Vitor Roque have revamped their front line. However, it’s important to note Estevao will be leaving the club in the summer for the Premier League – new signings or not, he carried them last campaign and he will be sorely missed.

The club hasn’t replaced Vitor Reis, either, who is now at Manchester City. Will the large amounts of cash thrown at the squad work? Or have they forgotten to bring in adequate defenders that can help them on the road in this competition? Ferreira can be stubborn, and perhaps it’s the Brazilian title he craves after losing their crown to Botafogo last campaign.

Speaking of the champions, Botafogo are priced completely wrong at 7.50 to win their second ever Libertadores title. Head coach and mastermind behind their success – Artur Jorge – has left. As have key players. Luiz Henrique – the man of the match in the final – has found himself in Russia, while Thiago Almada has moved to Lyon in Ligue 1. These were two of 10+ exits at the club, and their title winning side is no more. They could be in for a rough season.

Argentinian Influence

Next in the market are two Argentina clubs. Semi-finalists River Plate and Copa Sudamericana winners Racing are 9.0 and 9.5 respectively. River, like Palmeiras, have spent big – although not quite on the same wavelength as the Brazilians.

But despite several new faces, their season has started as it finished. Lacklustre, indecisive and a shadow of their former selves. They may have made the final four last year, but they were taught a lesson against Atletico Mineiro – a side that avoided relegation on the final day of their domestic season. River are in the running purely because of their name.

Racing, I’ll admit, were worthy Sudamericana winners. They beat Cruzeiro in the final quite comfortably, as well as Corinthians en route to the final. They also beat Botafogo – twice – in the Recopa, and there’s lots to like about their squad.

However, we’ve established that results over Botafogo can be taken with a pinch of salt, and the loss of Juan Quintero will hurt them. On their day, Racing will prove tough – especially at home – but against the more experienced Brazilian teams in this competition, they may just come up short.

Sao Paulo rub shoulders with Internacional in the market, but the 2023 semi-finalists firmly have my attention.

Roger Machado’s side finished 5th in the league last campaign, and were knocked out of the Sudamericana earlier than they would have liked. However, their season was far more successful than what meets the eye.

Internacional were one of three clubs heavily impacted by the flooding in the south of Brazil last May. Their stadium and training ground was under water, fixtures were suspended and key players decided to jump ship. Yet when they returned to their home, the team united, and until the final stages of the season when they ran out of steam, Internacional turned themselves from relegation candidates into title contenders.

Without the horrific flooding, Internacional would have been heavily involved in the title race – I’m sure of it.

From relegation candidates to contenders

With no distractions this time round, and a squad that has largely stuck together, Inter can pick up a title in 2025. From back to front, Inter has quality, experienced players that can carry them through a tournament of this magnitude.

Uruguay’s no.1 – Sergio Rochet – stands tall between the sticks. In front of him, central defender Vitao has Champions League experience with Shakhtar, and returned to Brazil to showcase why he is worthy of another chance in Europe. To his left, Alexandro Bernabei has signed permanently from Celtic after making the league’s best XI last campaign.

In the middle of the park, Inter’s captain – Alan Patrick – is not only the perfect leader but the Brazilian is an excellent technician, goalscorer and creator. He’s the heartbeat of the team, and the amount of games he’s won on his own for this club is outstanding. Despite 34, there were calls for him to return to the Brazilian national team.

In front of him you’ll find Wesley, a pacey, strong winger who’s capable in the air and in front of goal. He scored 11 goals in 33 appearances last campaign. And then Inter have the choice between two top strikers at this level.

Enner Valencia was signed from Fenerbahce in 2023 after scoring 29 in 31 league games in Turkey, while Colombian forward Rafael Borre returned to South America last season – the striker scored 9 in 23 league matches.

There’s a spine of quality players throughout this Internacional side, and their stadium, Jose Pinheiro Borda, which holds 51,000, can create one of the best atmospheres in Brazil – which is key in this competition in order to intimidate opponents.

Inter tick plenty of boxes, and although Flamengo and Palmeiras are expected to compete for the title, Roger Machado’s side should be the same price as Botafogo, which makes them excellent value at 11.0.

• Copa Libertadores Prediction 1: Internacional to lift the trophy E/W (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 11.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Copa Libertadores Prediction 2: Group B banker on the cards

Barcelona battled bravely through the qualifiers to make it to the group stage, and although the extra fixtures didn’t help teams out, it certainly didn’t harm Botafogo last year. Barcelona beat fellow Ecuadorian outfit El Nacional en route to the group stage, but their most impressive performance saw them knock out Corinthians – a team expected to go far in this competition.

Barcelona have looked strong in their domestic league’s early stages, and that bodes well given one of their group opponents are familiar faces. The Ecuadorian club will face Argentina’s River Plate, Peru’s Universitario and Independiente del Valle.

River Plate are odds-on and expected to win the group with ease, but they won’t enjoy travelling to Guayaquil. Universitario – although Peruvian champions – look to be the weak link in this group, and if Barcelona can’t beat them at home, they might as well have given their position to Corinthians.

Make or break

The fixtures that will make or break Barcelona’s chance of progressing is against Independiente del Valle. They have already met in the league, where del Valle ran out 4-0 winners – but after falling a goal behind inside eight minutes, Quinonez Ruiz was sent off 90 seconds later, and the final result doesn’t reflect where the two teams are at. That was also their first win away to Barcelona in five years.

Independiente del Valle have lost several key players in the off-season. Kendry Paez has moved to Chelsea early to prepare for his new environment, Yaimar Medina signed for Genk, Keny Arroyo moved to Besiktas while Joao Ortiz joined Portland Timbers in the MLS.

A handful of domestic players have been brought in, but del Valle are a club that needs to produce youngsters and sell for a profit – they don’t often re-invest.

Barcelona are in a similar situation, yet they haven’t sold many – if any – of their key assets, which is why they have had a bright start to the season. They tore Corinthians apart, and with their opening game a re-match against del Valle, they can look to sneak an advantage in round one and maintain a top two place by the end of the groups.

• Copa Libertadores Prediction 2: Barcelona to qualify from Group B
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Copa Libertadores Prediction 3: Back some Bolivian magic in La Paz

One of just two Bolivian teams in this year’s Libertadores group stage, Bolivar have the best chance of success out of them and debutants SA Bulo Bulo. However, they are a side that relish this stage of the competition in recent years, and no one likes midweek trips to La Paz.

In 2023, Bolivar comfortably finished second place by eight points, but last year they went one better and topped their group ahead of Brazilian giants Flamengo.

At home, they are so strong due to their altitude. Sitting 3,500m above sea level, they have such a unique advantage and will once again play three teams that don’t have any altitude advantage in their favour.

In 2023, Palmeiras sent a reserve side to face Bolivar, almost waving the white flag in round one knowing they could pick up points elsewhere. Fluminense did the same against The Strongest the same year.

The last two campaigns, Bolivar have picked up nine points from nine at home – but also secured valuable points on the road. The City Group owned club have improved against lower-ranked teams outside of Bolivia – just ask Cerro Porteno who were  hammered 4-0 in front of their own fans. Once again, these two sides will lock horns in the group stage.

Bolivar will also face Palmeiras once again – who will almost certainly rest their star players for their trip to La Paz. That leaves Sporting Cristal, a side that Bolivar will fancy to take at least four points from.

The Bolivian champions are so strong at home, and with old rivals in their group, they will be confident they can make it to the knockout stage for a third year in a row. 

• Copa Libertadores Prediction 3: Bolivar to qualify from Group G
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Copa Libertadores Top Scorer: Sudamericana star to shine

Alianza Lima’s 40-year-old forward Hernan Barcos scored four goals in qualifiers and is as short as 3.75 to win the golden boot. However, due to that incredibly poor pricing, there are massive outsiders that catch the eye.

Racing won the Sudamericana last year and that was largely down to one man: Adrian Martinez. The Argentine, bulldozing forward scored 10 goals – including one in the final – picking up the golden boot in the process. His physicality – but technique – makes him one of the more dangerous strikers in South America.

The Argentina club has a difficult group, but one that they should qualify from – and then it will be the luck of the draw to see how far they can get before bumping into a Brazilian giant.

At home, Racing have proven capable of beating anyone, and their strong form towards the end of last season almost saw them clinch the title. Martinez only scored seven in 20 league games, but he clearly thrived against teams that did not know much about him.

Fortaleza will be challenging, but both Bucaramanga and Colo Colo shouldn’t pose too many threats to Racing, and with Martinez so dominant at home, he can hopefully add a few goals to his tally before the knockout stage. At his massive price at 26.0, where other players towards the top of the market are likely to be rested, Martinez has every chance of winning another golden boot.

• Copa Libertadores Prediction 4: Adrian Martinez top goalscorer
• Best Odds: 26.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Copa Libertadores Top Scorer: Inter forward an outside swing

If I’m going to put up Internacional to have a good tournament, it only makes sense to look at their forwards to claim the golden boot. Fluminense’s German Cano won it in 2023, as did Junior Santos when Botafogo lifted the trophy for the first time last year.

And while I wouldn’t rule anyone out of backing Alan Patrick at 51.0 or greater, Enner Valencia’s price catches the eye. The former Fenerbahce forward was their reserve striker last year in favour of Rafael Borre, but we might just see a role reversal this year.

Valencia has been excellent during Internacional’s Gaucho win, and while Borre has failed to impress, their head coach may choose to interchange his two talismen throughout the campaign.

For both club and country, Valencia has shown he’s still capable of scoring plenty of goals. Last year, he was plagued with injuries which is why he had sporadic minutes here and there, but with a full pre-season under his belt, the experienced forward appears to be loving his football once again.After his sensational season in Turkey, Valencia scored nine league goals in 22 appearances, as well as four goals in six Libertadores appearances.

Although brought in halfway through the campaign, Valencia turned out to be the missing piece and Inter’s main man. Out of the two, Valencia is a better, more natural finisher than Borre, yet the Colombian’s price is 21.0, while the Ecuadorians is 35.0.

Inter have a challenging group, and nothing can be taken for granted. But expected to have a good run in the competition, Valencia can look to replicate his 2023 form in a side that is clearly thriving and has high ambitions to win a trophy. Valencia can hopefully sign off his career with one with his club, and yet another golden boot for his personal cabinet.

• Copa Libertadores Prediction 5: Enner Valencia top goalscorer
• Best Odds: 34.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Copa Libertadores Predictions odds via bet365 as at 18;00, March 22nd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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