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Analysis | Wednesday, June 12, 2024 12:46 PM

Euro 2024 Highest and Lowest Scoring Team Prediction: shooting boots and misfiring attacks

Euro 2024 Highest and Lowest Scoring Team Prediction: shooting boots and misfiring attacks

The beginning of Euro 2024 is only a few days away and bettors, all over the world, will be looking at finding value in some of the many outright markets. Previously we looked at the tournament winner, player of the tournament, Golden Boot and the player to provide most assists, which are all fascinating, and fairly difficult to pick options. 

In this article we tackle two other intriguing ante-post bets, the ones related to the highest and lowest scoring teams across the whole tournament. To be successful you’d need to choose which one, among the 24 nations involved in the competition, will score more and the one that will be the least clinical in front of goal. 

Not all bookmakers offer odds on these two markets, and bet365 is the best point of call to make these, as well as many other outright predictions. 

To offer some clarity and lock in three of the best selections in the betting, we’ve asked our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella, to delve into this ante-post market. 

Euro 2024 Highest and Lowest Scoring Overview: Top four is a must

Euro 2024, Germany, 14th June – 14th July

The highest-scoring team at both the Euros and the World Cup usually is one of the two finalists. In fact, since Euro 2008 the side that has scored most goals has won the trophy three out of four times (Spain in 2008 and 2012, and Italy in 2021), with France being the only exception as they lost the 2016 final 1-0 to Portugal. 

Looking also at the three most recent World Cups, it’s clear that teams that compete till the end of the tournament stand a real chance to become the ones who scored the most goals. 

In fact, both France in 2022 and Germany in 2014 were awarded this prize and Belgium, who finished third in 2018 by virtue of their 2-0 win over England, were the highest scorers in Russia.

Since the European Championship has been expanded to 24 sides all the highest scoring nations have scored 13 times, for an average of 1.85 goals per match. 

Spain, who had the same number of goals as Italy three years ago, only played six games, so they had a higher goals per game ratio (2.16), but curiously La Roja failed to score in their debut against Sweden and then netted five against both Slovakia and Croatia.  

Having to play one more game does not seem to have a huge effect on the total number of goals scored because normally, as explained in our Betting Guide, knockout stages are extremely tight games, where the Under 2.5 Goals is the most likely outcome. 

When only 16 nations played at the Euros, in 2012 and 2008, Spain scored 12 times, and in 2004 England and Czech Republic, who were eliminated in the quarter-finals and semifinals, respectively, only needed 10 goals. 

Spain's Fernando Torres celebrates scoring

On average the quality of the teams taking part in the Euros is higher than at the World Cup, where, especially in the group stage, European sides can rack up the goals against lesser sides from other FIFA confederations.

In fact, in all the last three editions, the high-scoring sides have totalled more goals (France 16 two years ago, Belgium 16 in Russia and Germany 18 in Brazil in 2014) than the highest-scoring teams at the Euros. 

No escape from the group stage

On the other hand, selecting the lowest-scoring team is more straightforward. 

Since 2004, the number of goals scored by the lowest-scoring national sides has never been higher than one. 

Eight years ago Ukraine went three games without scoring and it’s no surprise that every lowest scoring team has never made it to the knockout stage. 

Three years ago Finland, who only scored once, like Scotland and Turkey did, were in contention to qualify to the next round till match day three, but they got knocked out due to their worst goal difference (-2) compared to the Ukranians (-1). 

Poorly ranked teams by FIFA are not always the lowest-scoring ones at the Euros.

In fact, Turkey were considered by many the ‘dark horse’ of the last edition, and in recent times nations like Poland, Austria and even France (in 2008), shared this ungrateful prize. 

A similar trend can be observed at the three most recent World Cups, where only once, in 2018, the lowest scoring sides, have netted two goals. 

But beware of the surprises. Qatar, Belgium, and Denmark only scored one goal, whereas Germany, Poland and Serbia only found the back of the net twice in Russia in 2018.

Euro 2024 Highest Scoring Team Prediction 1: A potent and dynamic attack

Portugal are, beyond the tournament favourites England and France, the most exciting team to watch, not only because they’re blessed with talent and experience. 

In fact they navigated the qualifying in style, winning all their 10 games with a goal difference of +34, and scoring on average 3.6 goals per game. 

Last Saturday’s 2-1 suffered at the hands of Croatia was only Portugal’s second defeat in the last 14 games for a side that, under Roberto Martinez, definitely shrugged off the tag of ‘defensive team’ they had under the previous manager, Fernando Santos. 

The former Everton boss has changed Portugal’s style, making them more proactive and a team that likes to press high. In fact, the team’s passes per defensive action were amongst the lowest in qualifying, but now, of course, it’s time to see how they fare against nations of a higher calibre. 

Fearsome Attack

The Lusitanians don’t just rely on the goals of Cristiano Ronaldo, although he’s not a good option to have on the bench, and the likes of Rafael Leao, Goncalo Ramos, Jota, Joao Felix and Bruno Fernandes form a fearsome attack. 

Portugal were the 7th most profitable nation, with a +2.09 profit, in the qualifying campaign, and as explained in our Betting Guide, nations that excel in the 1X2 market during qualification tend to maintain their performance when reaching the tournament proper.

Therefore it is to be expected that Portugal would score a few goals against the likes of Czech Republic and Georgia that, by contrast, were among the less profitable nations during qualifying, and eventually top their group. 

Finishing first in Group F will give Ronaldo & Co an easier route into the quarter-finals, where they could meet Netherlands or Ukraine, another unprofitable nation during qualifying with a -1.90 Profits/Loss. 

  • Highest Scoring Team Prediction 1: Portugal (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 8.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 3/10

Euro 2024 Highest Scoring Team Prediction 2: Trust the home factor

Germany are a team in transition, but Julian Naglesman is steering them in the right direction, and recently they have got important wins against Netherlands and France. 

While their forward line may still be developing, the potential is undeniable. With the likes of Havertz, Musiala, and Wirtz, Germany boasts a wealth of quality and creativity. And let’s not forget the home advantage, a crucial factor that could play a significant role in the European Championships.

Home-field advantage across the entire history of the Euros has been worth a net gain of +0.45 goal difference per match, as explained in our Betting Guide. 

This is significantly greater than the current domestic home advantage, which since 2016/2017 is +0.34 across Europe’s five biggest leagues. 

Kai Havertz (DFB) Pascal Groß (DFB) Deutschland

According to BETSiE projections, Germany have over 63% probability to top Group A and with 5.33 expected goals should be the highest scoring nations during the group stage. 

In terms of our outright scoring prediction this would represent a considerable advantage going into the knockout-stage, with the hosts having almost 42% probability of reaching the semi-finals, based on BETSiE predictions.  

In fact, if both France and England win their respective groups they’ll face each other in the semi-final, which represents a further reason to pick Germany, or Portugal, as the highest scoring team.

  • Highest Scoring Team Prediction 2: Germany (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 5.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 5/10

Euro 2024 Lowest Scoring Team Prediction 3: Millennium debutants will struggle

This is Slovenia’s first major tournament since Euro 2000, and the Balkans have been handed an extremely tough draw with England, Denmark and their neighbours, Serbia.

Slovenia only failed to score once, against Finland, in the qualifying campaign, and averaged two goals per game, but, perhaps surprisingly, only scored six over two legs against San Marino. 

They’ve improved in recent times. They’re currently ranked 21st in the world by FIFA, but in their most recent Nations League campaign, they’ve only won one game (against Norway) and failed to score twice. 

They’re a well drilled side whose main strength is organisation, strengthened by the presence of Jan Oblak, often considered as one of the world’s best goalkeeper, and the Udinese’s duo Sandi Lovric and Jaka Bijol, who are in search of redemption after a disappointing season in Italy. 

RB Leipzig’s Benjamin Sesko has scored 18 times for his club this season, but especially against the likes of England and Denmark, he might have very few chances to have an attempt on goal. 

Three of the last five teams that finished as lowest scoring team at the Euros were either debutants (Finland in 2021) or sides that had not taken part for a long time (like Ireland in 2016 or Scotland three years ago). 

Therefore the Slovenians, despite their recent improvements, might pay the price for the lack of experience at international level.

  • Euro 2024 Lowest Scoring Team Prediction 3: Slovenia (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 10.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 2/10

Highest and Lowest Scoring Team Prediction odds via bet365 as at 08:30, June 7th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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