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Analysis | Tuesday, May 21, 2024 11:49 AM (Revised at: Thursday, June 13, 2024 2:27 PM)

Euro 2024 Winner Prediction: Betting Tips Preview

Euro 2024 Winner Prediction: Betting Tips Preview
PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo: England manager Gareth Southgate

Welcome to our Euro 2024 Winner prediction and betting tips preview where we are looking at the main outright market ahead of this summer’s competition. 

Two main favourites, England and France, stand out from the group of 24 teams that will compete in Germany. 

Although England are below the French and Belgium in the FIFA men’s ranking, they are considered the main candidates for the victory in virtue of their excellent qualifying campaign and the fact they lost the final on penalties to Italy in 2021. 

Gareth Southgate is looking to win England’s first men’s major tournament since 1996 and can count on players of the highest quality in all positions. 

The Three Lions have a mix of international experience and youth exuberance in their ranks and since the 2018 World Cup their performances in tournaments have been consistently positive. 

Two-time winners France are just below in the pecking order thanks to an extraordinary squad depth, plenty of expertise and, of course, the best player in the world, Kylian Mbappe. 

Les Bleus also qualified with ease to Euro 2024 by remaining unbeaten and, after their surprise defeat on penalties three years ago against Switzerland, they enter this summer’s Euros after coming so close in Qatar.

But First, bettingexpert’s Free Euro 2024 Betting Guide is out NOW!

The bettingexpert Euro 2024 Betting Guide


Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:

  • Match Result (1X2)
  • Handicap Betting
  • Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)

Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:

  • 8 historical tournament  analysis articles
  • 24 team-by-team articles
  • BETSiE projections for every team and group
  • Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes

For a free copy of the Euro 2024, click the button below:

Download the guide

Euro 2024 Winner Prediction 1: Ending 58 years of hurt

European Championships 2024, June 14th – July 14th 

When it comes to football tournaments, there’s always reluctance among fans and tipsters to back the number one favourite. 

This is understandable; for many people, odds of 4.00 or 5.00 might look too short when it comes to a competition that puts against each other the finest football players and managers.  

However, in this case, backing England to finally win a major trophy seems the most logical choice. 

Will football eventually come home this summer? First, let’s look at the national team’s results in the last couple of years. 

The Tree Lions have always qualified easily to every competition for more than a decade, and under Gareth Southgate, they’ve developed a strong tournament mentality. 

Since 2018, they’ve played one final at the Euros, one World Cup semi-final and one quarter-final, winning 12 out of 19 games in those three competitions. 

Knockout losses few and far between

In the last six years, England has only lost two knockout ties within 90 minutes and might take up to eight players to Germany among those who played in Russia. 

Once you reach the top stage, there’s no substitute for experience. 

Moreover to achieve a major trophy, teams don’t necessarily need to win every single game, and the draw or the way the knockout phases are shaped play a major part to every sides’ fortunes.

England have been handed a very good draw, in fact they’re in Group C, probably the second-weaker (behind Group E) of Euro 2024, alongside Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia

The Danish and Slovenia (ranked 57th in the world) were in the same qualifying group; both lost twice and had to sweat to get the better of Finland and Kazakhstan. 

Serbia also qualified as second, behind Hungary, and have a very poor record in major tournaments. Therefore England should easily finish top of group E, probably with a game to spare, which will give them the chance to rest players and have an easier route into the semi-finals. 

Harry Kane of England during the UEFA EURO 2024 European qualifier match

As Matthew O’Regan explained in his in-depth analysis of England’s group, the English have in Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, and Phil Foden, arguably the best players in La Liga, Bundesliga, and the Premier League

Options across the front

The Bayern Munich striker has had a terrific season in Germany (36 goals) and the Champions League (8 goals), and he looks favourite to win the Golden Boot this summer. 

Besides the big stars, players such as Declan Rice, Cole Palmer, and Ollie Watkins have all had terrific campaigns at the club level, and Southgate will have plenty of options, especially in attacking areas. 

One department where England might be a bit short is the back line as the inclusion of Harry Maguire will undoubtedly attract some criticism. 

England have only kept one clean sheet, against Malta, in the last five games, and a few injuries to players such as Kieran Trippier, Levi Colwill and Fikayo Tomori have left Southgate short of alternatives. 

Ultimately, the team’s target is to win Euro 2024. Gareth Southgate knows his reputation as a manager will be based on this summer’s result.

England will be more confident than ever going into the tournament, but they’ll have to prove they can consistently beat top opposition in knockout games. 

They did it when they faced Germany and Denmark at the Euros and came very close to taking the French into extra time in the last World Cup. 

Yet winning an international final still represents uncharted territory for the vast majority of these talented English players. 

  • Euro 2024 Winner Prediction 1: England (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 4.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 5/10

Euro 2024 Second Favourite Winner Prediction 2: Les Bleus the consistent challengers

If both England and France win their respective groups they’ll probably meet in the semi-final on 10th July in Dortmund. 

Even before a ball has been kicked, it can be argued that one side of the knockout stage looks much stronger than the other as the two main favourites are likely to go head-to-head. 

Bearing in mind that football is not an exact science, picking France as the second favourite and betting a slightly smaller stake than on England might be a good strategy. 

Les Bleus are in a tougher group than England, with Poland, Austria and Netherlands, but they still look strong favourites to finish top. France are currently ranked second in the world behind Argentina and are led by an experienced manager as Didier Deschamps. 

The former Juventus midfielder has been in charge of over 150 games with the national side and can count on a squad of almost incomparable strength and depth. 

Depth in numbers

Often you can judge how good a national team is by the names of the players that are not part of it. 

For example, the likes of Malo Gusto, Boubacar Kamara and Cristopher Nkunku would almost surely be included in any of the other squads, England excluded, at the Euros. 

Ahead of this tournament, this is Deschamps’ blessing and main issue.

When you have so many good players, team selection and getting the best out of everyone is extremely important. 

France's Kylian Mbappe, left, celebrates with France's Antoine Griezmann

As Steve Wyss explained in his analysis of Group D, Deschamps is very good at keeping players on his side, and the quarrels that happened in French camps in the past seem long forgotten. 

There’s a sense of unity and purpose that we haven’t always experienced, all enriched by the strong self-belief that is typical of any French side.

Since 2016, Les Bleus has proven that they are a tough team to beat in major tournaments. They’ve played four finals (one Euro, two World Cups and one Nations League), winning two of them. 

Whoever is going to lift the trophy on 14th July in Berlin will probably have to beat them. 

  • Euro 2024 Second Favourite Prediction : France (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 5.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 4/10

Euro 2024 Dark Horses Winner Prediction 3: A surprise from the ‘not-so-golden’ generation?

Raise your hand if, back in 2016 and 2021, you’d imagined Portugal and Italy were going to become European champions. 

Cristiano Ronaldo’s team odds were 11.00 before the tournament, and you’d have won nine times your stake if you had bet on the Azzurri ahead of Euro 2021. 

If the favourites always win, football, sport (and life in general) would be tremendously boring affairs. 

That’s why, when it comes to summer tournaments, it is worth looking at those strong teams that are not fancied by the bookmakers.

Belgium, coached by Domenico Tedesco, are one of those. 

Perhaps years and years of disappointments have dampened fans and experts’ enthusiasm for the Les Diables Rouges. 

Certainly their recent performances at major tournaments, a quarter-final exit at Euro 2021 and the elimination in the group stage at the last World Cup, have confirmed that Belgium’s squad no longer belongs to Europe’s elite. 

Belgium remained undefeated in the qualifying campaign and are slowly rebuilding their identity. 

Mixing youth and experience

The squad features an interesting mix of youth and experience and has been drawn in the weakest group of the lot, with Slovakia, Romania and Ukraine. 

Under the former Leipzig and Schalke 04 boss, Belgium are still unbeaten in 12 games and back in 2021 they won all their three group games. 

If they manage to repeat this achievement, they’d probably end up on the same side of the knockout draw as France and England. Yes, the two favourites, but also teams Belgium were able to match in the last games they played against. 

Belgium’s biggest stars have had a good season at club level. 

Kevin De Bruyne of Belgium controlls the ball

From Romelu Lukaku, who has reached double figures for his 11th campaign, to Kevin De Bruyne, who, despite the injuries, has the most assists of any player in Europe’s big five leagues in all competitions since 2022/2023.

The good news for Belgium is that they don’t have to rely too much on the Manchester City midfielder to produce the spark. In fact, the likes of Johan Bakayoko, Leandro Trossard, and Jeremy Doku can all change games in a flash.

Belgium’s only major tournament win was in the 1920 Olympics, and this is a long shot, hence the price, but it is worth considering. 

After all, whether the FIFA men’s ranking means something to you or not, Belgium is the world’s third-best team. Not a bad price for a ‘dark horse’. 

  • Euro 2024 Dark Horses Prediction 3: Belgium (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 17.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 1/10

Euro 2024 Winner Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:45, May 16th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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