| Tuesday, February 6, 2024 8:46 AM (Revised at: Friday, March 1, 2024 9:51 AM)

BETSiE Predicts Eredivise: Updated February 26th 2024

Andrew Brocker

PSV step ever closer to the Eredivisie title on the back of their 7-1 thumping away at Zwolle on Saturday. PSV are now at 98.4% to top the league with Feyenoord at the long odds of 1.6%. The race for automatic Champions League qualification looks settled with Feyenoord at 99.9% to join PSV next season. Twente have a firm grasp on a spot in the Champions League qualification round at 80.6% to finish in the top 3 while AZ Alkmaar is at 87.9% to earn at least a place in the Europa League with a top 4 finish. Vitesse and Volendam look set to suffer relegation at the end of the season while Waalwijk is favoured over Heracles and Excelsior to feature in the relegation playoff.

In this article:

BETSiE Best Bets
Projected Eredivisie Table
Eredivisie Season Probabilities
Match Expected Goals
Match 1X2 Probabilities
Asian Handicaps
Goals Totals
Both Teams To Score
What is BETSiE?

BETSIE’S BEST BETS

SELECTION	ODDS	BOOKMAKER
No Eredivisie Best Bets this week

BETSiE’S BEST BETS – ALL LEAGUES

LEAGUE	DATE	SELECTION	ODDS	BOOKMAKER
Championship	March 2	Hull +0 (AH) at Preston	1.95	bet365
Championship	March 2	Swansea +0 (AH) vs Blackburn	1.81	William Hill
Championship	March 2	Bristol City vs Cardiff Under 2.25 goals	1.85	bet365
Championship	March 2	Huddersfield vs Leeds Under 2.75 goals	1.86	Pinnacle
Championship	March 2	Preston vs Hull Under 2.5 goals	1.81	Pinnacle
Premier League	March 2	Brentford +0.25 (AH) vs Chelsea	2.01	bet365
Premier League	March 2	Everton -0.5 (AH) vs West Ham	2.04	Pinnacle
Premier League	March 2	Nottingham Forest +1 (AH) vs Liverpool	2.04	Pinnacle
Premier League	March 2	Newcastle vs Wolverhampton Over 3 goals	2.01	bet365
League One	March 2	Cambridge +1 (AH) at Bolton	1.83	William Hill
League One	March 2	Port Vale +1 (AH) at Derby	2.06	Pinnacle
League One	March 2	Fleetwood +0 (AH) vs Wigan	1.83	bet365
League One	March 2	Shrewsbury +0.5 (AH) vs Blackpool	1.95	Pinnacle
League Two	March 2	Accrington +1 (AH) at Wrexham	1.95	Pinnacle
Serie A	March 3	Juventus +0.25 (AH) at Napoli	1.85	Pinnacle

Championship odds as at 10am 26th February 2024. Odds may now differ
Premier League odds correct as at 10am 207h February 2024. Odds may now differ
League One, League Two odds correct as at 10am 28th February 2024. Odds may now differ.
Serie A odds correct as at 10am 29th February 2024. Odds may now differ.

Projected Eredivisie Table

Updated: 26th February 2024

	Pos.	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD
1	PSV Eindhoven	34	29.5	3.5	1.0	107.0	18.8	88.2	92.1
2	Feyenoord	34	25.6	5.4	3.0	89.1	24.7	64.4	82.2
3	Twente	34	19.9	7.3	6.8	65.0	34.4	30.6	67.0
4	AZ Alkmaar	34	17.6	8.6	7.8	61.3	33.1	28.1	61.4
5	Ajax	34	15.6	8.1	10.2	73.5	59.8	13.7	55.1
6	Go Ahead Eagles	34	12.7	9.4	11.8	52.3	50.5	1.8	47.7
7	Nijmegen	34	11.6	11.5	11.0	57.7	55.6	2.0	46.1
8	Utrecht	34	11.7	10.5	11.8	43.5	47.9	-4.4	45.5
9	Sparta Rotterdam	34	12.1	7.4	14.5	44.9	50.6	-5.7	43.7
10	Heerenveen	34	12.0	6.5	15.5	53.7	61.1	-7.5	42.6
11	Almere City	34	10.9	8.8	14.3	35.8	53.8	-18.0	41.6
12	For Sittard	34	10.7	8.7	14.7	36.0	54.5	-18.5	40.7
13	Zwolle	34	10.6	8.4	15.0	44.6	59.6	-15.0	40.1
14	Excelsior	34	7.2	11.2	15.6	49.9	68.1	-18.1	32.7
15	Heracles	34	8.8	6.3	18.9	42.2	75.2	-33.0	32.7
16	Waalwijk	34	8.4	5.6	19.9	32.6	56.9	-24.3	30.9
17	Vitesse	34	6.0	6.4	21.5	27.4	67.9	-40.5	24.6
18	Volendam	34	5.1	6.2	22.7	34.7	78.7	-44.0	21.6

Eredivisie Season Probabilities

Club	Win League	Top 2 Finish	Top 3 Finish	Top 4 Finish	Top Half Finish	Bottom Half Finish	Relegation	Relegation Playoff
PSV Eindhoven	98.4%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Feyenoord	1.6%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Twente	0.00%	0.09%	80.58%	98.45%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
AZ Alkmaar	0.0%	0.0%	18.5%	87.9%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Ajax	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	12.8%	99.7%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
Utrecht	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	69.7%	30.3%	0.0%	0.0%
Go Ahead Eagles	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	86.8%	13.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Nijmegen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	77.0%	23.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sparta Rotterdam	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	53.1%	46.9%	0.0%	0.1%
Heerenveen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	42.3%	57.7%	0.0%	0.2%
Almere City	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	29.2%	70.8%	0.1%	0.5%
For Sittard	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	21.6%	78.4%	0.0%	0.7%
Zwolle	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	19.4%	80.6%	0.1%	0.9%
Excelsior	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	99.5%	4.4%	20.6%
Heracles	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	99.5%	6.0%	26.6%
Waalwijk	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	99.8%	12.4%	33.9%
Volendam	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	94.4%	4.3%
Vitesse	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	82.7%	12.3%

Upcoming matches: March 1st, 2nd, 3rd

Match Expected Goals

Home	Away	Home	Away	Margin	Total
Ajax	Utrecht	2.39	1.27	1.12	3.67
For Sittard	Excelsior	1.55	0.99	0.56	2.54
Go Ahead Eagles	Waalwijk	1.73	1.06	0.67	2.78
Heerenveen	Zwolle	1.82	1.17	0.65	2.99
Heracles	Almere City	1.36	1.37	-0.01	2.72
PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord	1.45	1.14	0.31	2.59
Sparta Rotterdam	AZ Alkmaar	1.08	1.4	-0.31	2.48
Vitesse	Twente	0.76	1.92	-1.16	2.67
Volendam	Nijmegen	1.4	1.83	-0.42	3.23

Match 1X2 Probabilities

Home	Away	Home %	Draw %	Away %
Ajax	Utrecht	62.20%	18.70%	19.10%
For Sittard	Excelsior	50.20%	25.50%	24.30%
Go Ahead Eagles	Waalwijk	53.00%	23.80%	23.20%
Heerenveen	Zwolle	52.60%	23.00%	24.40%
Heracles	Almere City	36.90%	25.70%	37.40%
PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord	44.10%	26.10%	29.80%
Sparta Rotterdam	AZ Alkmaar	29.20%	26.70%	44.10%
Vitesse	Twente	14.00%	21.20%	64.80%
Volendam	Nijmegen	29.70%	22.80%	47.50%

Asian Handicaps

Home	Away	Home AH	Away AH	Home AH %	Away AH %
Ajax	Utrecht	-0.75	0.75	56.95%	43.05%
For Sittard	Excelsior	-0.5	0.5	50.22%	49.78%
Go Ahead Eagles	Waalwijk	-0.75	0.75	45.64%	54.36%
Heerenveen	Zwolle	-0.75	0.75	45.50%	54.50%
Heracles	Almere City	0	0	49.70%	50.30%
PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord	-0.5	0.5	44.12%	55.88%
Sparta Rotterdam	AZ Alkmaar	0.5	-0.5	55.88%	44.12%
Vitesse	Twente	1	-1	47.17%	52.83%
Volendam	Nijmegen	0.75	-0.75	59.63%	40.37%

Goal Totals

Home	Away	O/U Line	Over %	Under %
Ajax	Utrecht	3.25	56.50%	43.50%
For Sittard	Excelsior	2.75	39.30%	60.70%
Go Ahead Eagles	Waalwijk	2.75	45.90%	54.10%
Heerenveen	Zwolle	2.75	51.20%	48.80%
Heracles	Almere City	2.5	51.20%	48.80%
PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord	3	33.40%	66.60%
Sparta Rotterdam	AZ Alkmaar	2.5	45.20%	54.80%
Vitesse	Twente	2.5	50.00%	50.00%
Volendam	Nijmegen	3	52.00%	48.00%

Both Teams To Score

Home	Away	Yes	No
Ajax	Utrecht	65.40%	34.60%
For Sittard	Excelsior	49.50%	50.50%
Go Ahead Eagles	Waalwijk	53.70%	46.30%
Heerenveen	Zwolle	57.70%	42.30%
Heracles	Almere City	55.30%	44.70%
PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord	52.10%	47.90%
Sparta Rotterdam	AZ Alkmaar	49.80%	50.20%
Vitesse	Twente	45.20%	54.80%
Volendam	Nijmegen	63.30%	36.70%

What is BETSiE?

BETSiE projects the entire Eredivisie season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

Goals For / Against
Shots For / Against
Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Eredivisie fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Eredivisie season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

Like the article: