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Analysis | Monday, May 13, 2024 11:14 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, May 15, 2024 8:03 AM)

Euro 2024 Group F Prediction: Betting Tips Preview

Euro 2024 Group F Prediction: Betting Tips Preview
Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo: Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo kisses the trophy

Scott Thornton brings you his Euro 2024 Group F prediction and betting tips preview as we look ahead to this summer’s tournament.

Portugal are the strongest sides in this group. They are the fourth favourite with the bookmakers to go on and lift the trophy in July. Only England, France and Germany are priced at shorter odds. 

Turkey are hoping to put their Euro 2020 (in 2021) nightmare behind them when they take the field in Germany. They failed to pick up a single point in the last edition of the tournament but they harbour ambitions of making it to the knockout stages here.

The Czech Republic are expected to be close behind the Turks. Third place could be enough to secure a post in the knockout stages, but they will have their sights set on finishing as high as possible.

Georgia made it to the tournament via the playoffs and are the outsiders as a result. They finished behind Spain, Scotland and Norway in their qualifying group but their performance in the UEFA Nations League offered them a chance at salvation.

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Euro 2024 Group F Overview Prediction: Cristiano eyeing Euro Repeat

UEFA European Championships 2024, June 14th – July 14th 2024

Portugal are the standout team in Group F and are favourites to secure the top spot. Roberto Martinez has done a marvellous job since taking the reins. They scored an average of 3.6 goals per game in qualifying and will hope to continue that formidable attacking form into this summer’s European Championships.

The Portuguese were criticised for being defensive and passive out of possession under Fernando Santos. Martinez has done a lot of work on the training pitch to turn Portugal into a team that presses high up the pitch. The team’s passes per defensive action was amongst the lowest in qualifying, highlighting just how proactive they are when they don’t have the ball. Winning possession high up the pitch allows the star-studded attack that Martinez has at his disposal to have a huge impact on the game.

Cristiano Ronaldo remains a key part of the team. The five-time Ballon d’Or winner continues to score a glut of goals for Portugal despite playing his club football away from Europe. Only Romelu Lukaku scored more than Ronaldo in the qualifiers. The former Real Madrid man features as the lone striker in Martinez’s side. Bruno Fernandes topped the assists chart in qualifying, and the experience of those players could prove vital if this talented team is to go all the way in Germany. 

Portuguese in Pole Position

Portugal won all ten outings in their qualifying campaign. Their goal difference of +34 was the best by some distance, with France ranked 2nd. Martinez will be hoping his team remains just as potent in attack when they face trickier tests in this summer’s tournament.

Turkey are the 2nd favourites to advance from Group F. Many fancied them to do well in the last Euros, but they crashed out in the group stages, falling to pick up a single point in the process. They have the chance to right the wrongs of that tournament here, but the crushing defeat against Austria back in March will have alarm bells ringing once again. 

Vincenzo Montella is the man who will lead the Turks into this tournament. He had managerial stints at Milan, Sevilla and Fiorentina Turkey have won three of their six matches under the new boss. He took charge of their final three qualifiers. The seven points they picked up in those matches were enough to see them finish ahead of Croatia and Wolves to top the group.

The Czech Republic are just behind Turkey in the betting. They qualified as second from Group E. Finishing behind Albania thanks to the head-to-head rule. The Czechs picked up a total of 15 points in that campaign. They won their two friendlies in March against Norway and Armenia but the Czech Republic will need to raise performance levels if they are to emerge from this group.

Georgia are the dangerous outsider in this group. They edged past Greece via a penalty shootout in the qualification playoffs. However, they have the quality to upset some of the more fancied sides in this tournament.

Euro 2024 Group F Prediction 1: Portugal Can Go All The Way

While the 2-0 loss to Slovenia back in March was a setback, Portugal deserve to be considered among the frontrunners for the tournament. The quarter-final defeat against Morocco at the last World Cup meant it was time for a change and Roberto Martinez has been a welcome change.

Portugal have one of the squads in world football and the new manager has been able to fit all the pieces together. The team are no longer reliant on the goal scoring exploits of Cristino Ronaldo.  The likes of Rafael Leao, Goncalo Ramos, Joao Felix and Bruno Fernandes form an attack that can perform with or without their legendary talisman.

The defensive unit also features a plethora of world-class talent. Ruben Dias has been crucial at the heart of Manchester City’s defence in recent years. The likes of Danilo Periera, Goncalo Ignacio and the everpresent Pepe mean Roberto Martinez has a wealth of options at centre-back.  The manager can also rely on the likes of Nelson Semedo, Joao Cancelo, Diogo Dalot and Nuno Mendes at full-back. The solid base to build from means the team can remain committed to the high press and take the game to even the most difficult of opponents. 

The Portuguese won this tournament eight years ago and they look a stronger team this time around. They won just one of their matches in the 90 minutes of regulation time in Euro 2016. Martinez’s side are likely to face Croatia, Serbia or Switzerland if they do what is expected of them and top the group. 

Portugal had won 11 straight matches prior to their 2-0 defeat in Slovenia on March 26th. They averaged 3.63 goals per game, conceding just 0.36 on that winning run. The manager has struck the right blend between attacking menace and defensive stability since taking charge. Portugal look capable of stepping up their game when it matters this summer.

  • Group F Prediction 1: Portugal To Win Euro 2024 (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 10.00
  • Bookmaker: BetVictor
  • Stake: 10/10

Euro 2024 Group F Prediction 2: Bruno Can Benefit From Portugal Attack

With Portugal being in fine scoring form and amongst the favourites to go on and win the whole tournament, Bruno Fernandes to provide the most assists looks a decent bet. Bruno provided the most assists in the qualifying stages and will have plenty of attackers to aim at this summer.

Bruno continues to be a key player for Manchester United. The midfielder continually posts good numbers and is almost always available. He has registered seven Premier League assist this season at the time of writing.  Erik Ten Hag’s side have struggled this season and goals have been a real problem. Bruno should thrive as part of this dealy Portugal attack and we can back him at 14.00 to make the most assists in the tournament.

Kevin De Bruyne is priced the same as Bruno ahead of the tournament. The Belgian’s playmaking prowess frequently sees him top the assist charts in the Premier League but he has the benefit of playing for Pep Guradiola’s Manchester City. Portugal are more highly fancied than the Belgians coming into this one with six sides’ ahead of Domenico Tedesco’s side in the betting. 

Fernandes’ underlying numbers are hugely promising. He is averaging 8.09 progressive passes per90 minutes played this season. That puts him in the 98th percentile when compared with all other attacking midfielders and wingers across Europe’s top five leagues. He averages 6.09 shot-creating action per 90 minutes, which also ranks in the top 5% for players in his position. He will relish the opportunity to pay with an in-form attack this summer. 

Ronaldo will always provide a target to aim at in the opposition box. Portugal’s star man is known for his exceptional heading ability and Bruno has proven himself to be an adept crosser of the ball in recent years.

  • Group F Prediction 2: Bruno Fernandes To Assist The Most Goals (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 14.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 4/10

Euro 2024 Group F Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:38, May 10th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

The Predicted Group F Standings

It’s hard to look beyond Portugal in Group F. They have gone from strength to strength under Roberto Martinez and should be beating their rivals comfortably. The defeat against Slovenia will have given them food for thought but don’t expect complacency when the tournament gets going. 

Turkey and the Czech Republic are difficult to split but Vincenzo Montella’s side should just edge second place. Their impressive end to the qualifying campaign will have given them confidence. The 1-0 win in Croatia was a particular highlight. They ran out 2-1 winners when they faced the Czechs in 2022.

The Czech Republic have what it takes to finish above Georgia. They are unbeaten in five matches ahead of the pre-tournament friendlies.

Georgia have lost four of their last eight competitive matches. They kept just 36% possession int he playoff against Greece. Their opponents in this group have the quality to do some damage if they are afforded that much time on the ball.

Group F Standings Prediction

  1. Portugal
  2. Turkey
  3. Czech Republic
  4. Georgia

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