Europa League Winner Odds: Leverkusen Nipping At Scouse Ankles

Those pesky Brits abroad are causing a stir again in UEFA competition and the Europa League Winner Odds. They may not mirror the larger-drinking, no-shirt-wearing, staunchly opposed to allowing any sunbed-chasing Germans free reign poolside type of holidaymaker on the continent, but they do share some similarities.

Loud, proud, sun-kissed, and willing and able to have their say when the opportunity arises. Manchester City leads the Champions League betting in UEFA’s flagship domestic tournament. Elsewhere, in the Europa League Winner Odds betting, Liverpool (4.50) and Brighton (15.00) flew the flag for the Premier League at the summit of the betting landscape before a ball was kicked in the competition.

Now approaching the knockout stages, how does the Europa League betting shape up?

In this article:

• Europe League Winner Odds
• The Pre-Draw Europa League Odds
• The Luck Of The Draw: Its effect on the Europa League Winner Odds market
• Ante-post: Leverkusen loving, but not by the market
• Ante-post: Can the Seagulls even the load between Europe and the Premier League?
• Ante-post: Marseille are street-wise enough to progress if they find their feet
• Ante-post: Could USG’s Qualification Odds Be Something To Consider?

Europa League Winner Odds: Leverkusen nipping at Scouse ankles

Europa League Winner Odds before a ball is picked (pre-draw prices):

It’s no wonder why the English sides edged above the rest in the ante-post markets. The financial clout borne from involvement in Premier League football will edge them in front of the majority for the foreseeable. This competition, though, is different from its more prestigious, more attractive (to some) older, big-eared sibling in that there’s an influx of recently scorned Champions League outfits midway through the competition.

It makes taking an outright punt on Europa League football almost a stab in the dark to some extent. A look at the Champions League Winners’ Odds and each group’s makeup will provide insight into who may not make the cut from the Champions League group stage. But let’s face it, there will always be a handful of shocks – teams falling into the abyss of Europa League football. And once they’re there, who says they’ll take it seriously?

If, like Juventus last season, poor form or a points deduction knock a club out of sync and perilously out of reach of Champions League qualification in Serie A, then the Europa League becomes the be-all and end-all nearer the climax of a campaign.

The Luck Of The Draw: Its effect on the Europa League Winner Odds market

There’s a ‘Group of Death’ in Group B, as unpleasant as that footballing adage sounds.

But, to be honest, it’s challenging to navigate the Europa League groups without a smattering of Champions League standard clubs here and a sprinkle of Champions League-level sides there.

Europa Conference League victors West Ham fall in line with Olympiakos, Freiburg and Backa Topola in Group A – a quartet in which three sides expect to progress.

You’ll find that’s a similar story throughout.

Before we go on, and although I’m penning an ante-post article focused on the Europa League, I feel like I have to convey my honest opinion on the subject. I personally wouldn’t take an ‘Outright Winner’ bet on this competition at this stage unless there is a price that I’m bowled over by. There’s a German team that ticks that box for me, but even then, I’d keep the stakes small and place with an idea of increasing the entertainment value in front of the television on a Thursday evening throughout this year’s tournament.

The Reds are unmoved in the Europa League Winner Odds

The Reds (4.50) are unmoved following the draw. It’s no secret that the six-time European Cup winners will view the competition as a step-down. Whether Jurgen Klopp gives the Europa League the full buy-in is another question. It’s probable that the German fields a team to do the business in the group stages and early knockout rounds. With the quarter-final looming, perhaps that’s when we’ll see a Liverpool eleven in full flow.

However, a handful of players are behind the rest in terms of starting Premier League fixtures. Suppose the likes of Darwin Nunez, Diogo Jota, Joe Gomez, and Harvey Elliot can lock a spot down in European competition. In that case, there’s every likelihood that their participation will seep into the crucial Premier League matches, and Klopp will be peddling the same thought process to his squad. Liverpool are rightfully top of the betting terrain for a reason, though the attached price isn’t worth your hard-earned at this stage before a ball is kicked in anger.

Liverpool are joined by LASK, Union Saint-Gilloise and Toulouse in Group E. That should be light work for Merseyside’s best.

Movers and shakers

The Romans, headed by Jose Mourinho and fresh off a Europa League final defeat, saw some movement (15.00 > 17.00) following the draw. Slavia Praha, Servette, and Sheriff Tiraspol stand in Jose’s way – again, another quartet the favourite should waltz through unharmed.

Villarreal (15.00 > 17.00) oversees a similar market drift on the back of Rennes, Maccabi Haifa and Panathinaikos, all landing in Group F. That’s a robust-looking cohort. The Spaniards will expect safe passage, but it’s by no means a certainty considering Maccabi Haifa’s strong showings in the Champions League last season and the collective roar awaiting them in Greece. And that’s without mentioning Rennes, presumably their main competition for top spot in the group.

Lastly, one of Serie A‘s protagonists has witnessed one of the most significant moves in the top ten of the betting. Sporting, who, like Liverpool, are more used to Champions League delights, bless Atalanta (15.00 > 21.00) with their presence in Group D.

Note to reader: everything you see below this point are ante-post thoughts before the Europa League kicked off. Although this article is updated regularly to supply the latest Europa League winner odds and information, we thought it’d be good to leave our pre-tournament thoughts up and available for all the view. Hopefully there’s a winner or two tucked away below.

Ante-Post: Leverkusen loving, but not by the market

Bayer Leverkusen (17.00 > 21.00), now under Xabi Alonso’s tutelage, experienced a slight shift in odds despite currently playing like a team no one will want to face. The former Liverpool and Real Madrid midfield lynchpin has his side playing well, scoring goals, and, most importantly, winning games in the Bundesliga. Keep that up, and Qarabag, Molde and BK Hacken supporters will continue flinching at the thought of a trip to Germany.

If there was one team that I’d hang my hat on at the current prices to win the Europa League prior to the inclusion of teams from the Champions League, it would be Leverkusen. I feel as if the incomings during this transfer window have been shrewd and targeted. Alonso knew what he wanted and gleefully locked in his fresh-faced desired bunch.

Nathan Tella of Championship fame, a sharp-shooting Victor Boniface who has hit the ground running, and Granit Xhaka, the three standouts that, coupled with the form they’ve started the season with, prompt questions around the 21.00 price.

Ante-Post: Can the ante-post Seagulls even the load between Europe and the Premier League?

In short, it’s a no from me at 15.00. There are reasons to be doubtful. The 15.00 doesn’t get the juices flowing enough for a team on an upward trajectory without any European pedigree. I’d want it much bigger. We know this is a quality cohort headed by an even more impressive head coach, but one should be cautious at this price point, considering the losses Brighton have endured this summer.

Replacements have arrived for Moises Caicedo and Alexis Mac Allister in the heart of midfield, plus Robert Sanchez in net. Nevertheless, we are yet to see the impact of said new faces and whether they’re up to filling the shoes of the aforementioned wantaways. Knowing Brighton, they’ll presumably deputise seamlessly. Yet, to come in and usher their new side towards European silverware is a tall task.

There is an art to balancing the struggles of a Premier League campaign – one’s priority – and a European excursion clouded by hope and expectation. It won’t be easy, far from it. Brighton have found a home in Group B with Ajax, Marseille, and AEK Athens. So, that explains the shift from 13.00 > 15.00 in the outright odds. Thrusting past two European stalwarts in the group is as big of an ask as anywhere in the competition.

Being pushed for a prediction at this stage after a small sample size of Premier League games this term, I feel like they’ll fall short against a wily, experienced European outfit capable of overseeing both a lighter load in a more straightforward division and the rigours of the Europa League. Regardless, I back them to make it into the knockout stages before we see any sides drop in from the Champions League. Let’s hope the Seagulls prove me wrong and go all the way.

Ante-post: Marseille are street-wise enough to progress if they find their feet

Look, they’re 29.00 for a reason. Marseille’s primary focus will be in Ligue 1, where PSG, RC Lens, Rennes and the like will battle it out once again for Champions League qualification – a type of silverware in itself these days.

Sanchez, Guendouzi, Under, Milik, Malinovskyi and Payet have left. Coming the other way, Sarr, Ndiaye, Correa, Lodi and Aubamayeng arrive, giving the squad a fresh feel to last season’s displays. A subsequent Panathinaikos humbling sent them hurtling into the Europa League. And now here we are.

Brighton and Ajax in the same group? It doesn’t get much more demanding. However, they may just have an edge over this Ajax side, who have not begun their 2023/24 campaign well at all. Like Marseille, they’ll need time to gel, but I view this season as more of a transitional stretch for the Dutch, not one where they’ll pull up trees in Europe.

The losses of Edson Alvarez, Mohammed Kudus, Jurrien Timber, Davy Klaassen, Calvin Bassey and Dusan Tadic would cripple most clubs. Ajax have seemingly recruited well and in numbers, but losing that core group of crucial playing staff will leave a void of personality and talent in the dressing room.

If Marseille can get out of Group B and put in a selection of head-turning performances along the way, and it may be a big IF, any quotes of 29.00 will be long gone. I don’t necessarily expect them to win the lot, although from the prices on offer, it does feel a touch large.

Ante-post: Union Saint-Gilloise’s qualification odds is something to consider

Toulouse’s odds of 1.90 to qualify and 1.80 not to qualify, sees bet365 favouring, ever so slightly, Toulouse to miss out on qualification from Group E. But to whom? You’d imagine Liverpool will run away with things, leaving Union Saint Gilloise and LASK. The latter will presumably not be up to it at this level, leaving USG and Toulouse to scrap for second spot in Group E.

Bet365 has both down as 101.00 shots to win the competition, but price Toulouse (1.90) & USG (2.75) to qualify for the knockouts. Skybet has the two to win the competition at 34.00 (Toulouse) and 101.00.

Elsewhere, Boylesports has Union Saint-Gilloise (8.00) edging Toulouse (9.00) in the group winner market.

The bookies aren’t too sure, or bothered

The bookies aren’t too sure. Or bothered – or both. My data has USG as the second most likely to win this group, and there’s some daylight between them and the Frenchmen. However, it must be noted that the player turnover for both squads this summer leaves a lot to be answered for on the pitch. Will this be a USG side that can replicate their Quarter Final finish in the UEFA Europa League last term? Unlikely.

Toulouse’s squad is much weaker from last season, with the likes of Fares Chaibi (Frankfurt) and van Den Boomen (Ajax) gone, but so is USG’s, including Viktor Boniface, a wrath of starters, and the departed head coach. What we do have on our side is form, or lack of it. Toulouse’s stuttering start to Ligue 1 and an away fixture in Marseille next up likely means it’s an eleven that limps into their first European 90.

For USG? It’s 5/7 wins, including home and away victories in Europe already vs FC Lugano. Not only that but there’s a feel-good atmosphere at the club when operating in Europe after topping a Europa League group last season (whilst playing at Anderlecht’s stadium – something they’ll do again in 2023/24) consisting of Union Berlin, Braga and Molde.

The market is moving towards USG, becoming near-even money faves for the opener. Win that, and they certainly won’t be 2.75 shots to qualify with ‘head-to-heads’ the primary deciding factor in the event of a tie on points.

• Selection: Union Saint-Gilloise Group Qualification – Yes 
• Best Odds: 2.75
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (1u)

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